Recent and future trend of drought in the Context of climate change: Southwest of Morocco (Guelmim-Sidi Ifni and Agadir)

¹ Laboratory of Applied Geophysics Engineering, Geotechnical and Environmental Geology, Mohammadia School of Engineers, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco
² Civil Engineering and Environment Laboratory (LGCE); Materials, Water and Environment Team; Higher School of Technology of Salé; Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco
³ Laboratory of Spectroscopy, Molecular Modelling, Materials, Nanomaterials, Water and Environment, CERN2D, ENSAM-Rabat Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco
⁴ Department of Physics, Mechanical and Civil Engineering Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University Abdelmalek Essaadi, Tangier, Morocco

^* Corresponding author: saidmch@gmail.org

Abstract

Climate change has significantly affected the region under study, located in the southwest of Morocco. On the basis of rainfall time series for the years 1973 to 2020 in Agadir, 1985 to 2017 in Guelmim, and 1983 to 2020 in Sidi Ifni, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is employed in this study. According to the results of the SPI research, the driest years on record were those between 1981 and 1986, 1992 and 1994, and 1997 and 2000. The future SPI forecasts made with the assistance of the HadGEM2 model indicate that the study region will experience several extended dry and wet episodes between 2022 and 2099. The years 2090 through 2093 will see the longest drought on record. Moreover, precipitation and the number of rainy days are decreasing for the three stations studied, which is in line with the IPCC results in the Mediterranean region. The study's results will serve as an initial basis for hydro-meteorological research and drought surveillance, as well as for starting the desired environmental management in this region.