A Hybrid WaterGEMS–MAE–PCC Framework for Hydraulic Modeling and Reliability Assessment of Water Distribution Systems

University of Science ang Technology of Southern Philippines, Main Campus - Alubijid, Philippines

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Abstract

Reliable and efficient water distribution systems are vital for ensuring adequate water supply and sustainable urban development. This study focuses on the hydraulic modeling and reliability assessment of a water distribution system using Bentley WaterGEMS, hybridized with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r) for performance evaluation. The main objective is to analyze the system's hydraulic behavior—particularly pressure and flow distribution—and assess the accuracy and reliability of the simulated model compared to field data. The methodology involved the development of a detailed WaterGEMS model based on actual network parameters such as pipe dimensions, material, nodal elevations, and demand patterns. Extended Period Simulation (EPS) was conducted to capture temporal variations in system performance. Model calibration and validation were performed using observed pressure and flow data. The MAE quantified the average deviation between simulated and observed values, while the Pearson correlation measured the strength and direction of their linear relationship. Results showed that the model achieved low MAE values and a strong positive correlation (r > 0.9), indicating high model accuracy and reliability. Hence, the integration of WaterGEMS with MAE and Pearson correlation provides a robust framework for evaluating hydraulic performance. It is recommended that the calibrated model be utilized for system optimization, proactive maintenance, and strategic planning to improve the overall efficiency and resilience of the water distribution network.