Lessons from analysing mortality from six major flood events in France ( 1930-2010 )

Evolution of flood mortality is complex as several opposite factors come into play. On one side, flood risk has been aggravated due to an increase of the number of inhabitants within the area at risk, and to an increasing of simple-storey houses without safe area. On the other side, flood risk is better managed due to a better efficiency of warning offices and civil protection actors. It is intended to demonstrate the potential of historical information on past flood events to give a better understanding of the main factors leading to mortality during flood events. This paper focuses on a set of six fatal floods from 1930 to 2010 in France, with a variable number of fatalities (from 25 to 423). Information was gathered on the main characteristics of past flood mortality: number of fatalities, death location, date and time of death, death circumstances, age and gender of victims. Based on the six flood events, the paper shows contrasted patterns on flood mortality in terms of spatial distribution, death location (inside/outside buildings), age of flood victims. The main factors leading to flood mortality are considered, such as population exposed to violent and sudden flooding, vulnerable built environment, inadequate behaviour of individuals and warning failures.


Introduction
Between 1998 and 2009, floods in Europe have caused some 1126 deaths, the displacement of about half a million people and at least EUR 52 billion in insured economic losses [1].Catastrophic floods endanger lives and cause human tragedy as well as heavy economic losses.Even if the annual death of rate from flood is low in comparison with anthropogenic sources (e.g. in France: about 10 flood deaths to compare with 60 000, 30 000 and 3 400 deaths by tobacco, alcohol or road accident), catastrophic floods have large social impacts as the fatalities happen simultaneously or during the same days, on a restricted geographic area.
Coastal populations can be seriously impacted by extreme sea levels caused by a storm (e.g.loss of 1800 lives in Netherland on 31 January ± 1 February 1953 [2]; 1100 deaths after Hurricane Katrina in the state of Louisiana USA on 29 August 2005 [3]).Inland population can also be exposed to sudden flooding after flash floods, storms, dyke breaching or dam breaking.Table 1 gives the list of the seven most catastrophic flood events since 1850 with more than 100 fatalities in France [4].Even if some uncertainties remain on the exact identification of victims, especially during the previous centuries, it clearly shows that extreme flood mortality has been reduced as the deadliest disasters are all prior to 1960.It could be relied to significant progress in warning and rescuing operations.But such positive effects can be counterbalanced by the increase of the number of inhabitants within the area at risk, and by inadequate people vulnerability or behaviour.This paper intends to demonstrate the potential of historical information on past flood events to give a better understanding of the main factors leading to mortality during flood events.We present on section 2 the main characteristics on a set of six fatal floods from 1930 to 2010 in France, with variable flood casualty figures.The main factors leading to flood mortality are considered in section 3, such as population exposed to violent and  A short description of each flood event is presented here based on a series a monographs produced by [5].

The March 1930 flood event
From the 1st to the 5th March 1930, one of the most significant flood events of the 20th century occurred in France.Following a heavy Mediterranean rainfall event, severe floods affected a large part of South-West France and, more specifically, the Tarn and Garonne river catchments (cf.Fig. 1).The exceptional flood magnitude, with a return period estimated at more than 200 years for the lower Tarn River, led to many house collapses along the hydrographic network.Based on documentary sources, the event caused at least 230 fatalities, meaning that the March 1930 event was the second deadliest flood of the 20th century (after the Malpasset dam burst in 1959, with 423 deaths).The flood event was responsible for significant economic losses estimated at around EUR 600 million.The subsequent impacts can be regarded as exceptional.For example, a day of national mourning in memory of the fatalities was instituted for the first time in   According to the documentary sources collected, the flood event led to 57 deaths in France (Fig. 2) and 90 in Spain [6], generally resulting from house collapses [7].Many municipalities from the Pyrenean valleys were strongly affected, in some cases with the complete destruction of villages such as the thermal resort of Amelie-les-Bains.The amount of damages is higher than EUR 1 billion.Because of its occurrence during the Second World War, and in spite of huge human and economic losses, this flood event led to few consequences at the national scale.Nevertheless, the October 1940 event remains the design flood for local management policies as well as one of the most significant hydro meteorological events ever recorded in France since the beginning of stream-gauging measurements.

The breaking of Malpasset dam in December 1959
The Malpasset dam was an arch dam, 60 m high and 220 m wide, located approximately 7 km north of Fréjus on the French Riviera, southern France, in the Var department (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Flood fatalities during the breaking of Malpasset dam in December 1959
It collapsed at 21:13 on December 2, 1959, with a massive dam break wave, initially 40 m high and moving at 70 km/h, destroying two small villages, Malpasset and Bozon, and the highway construction site of Marseille-Nice.It reached the city of Fréjus 20 minutes later, still standing 3 m high, and finally the sea at 22:00.The event caused 423 fatalities and the damage amounted to a total of EUR 110 million.The causes of the dam break are multiple.Firstly a strong pressure under the dam was not correctly accounted for, based on available knowledge on rock mechanics at the time.Some early signs of dam weakness may have been detected if the filling of the dam have been correctly monitored.Unfortunately, despite the dam construction was completed in October 1954, the reservoir was not yet filled 5 years later, due to a litigation procedure with a fluorspar mine.At the end of November, about 250 mm of rain in 6 days induced a rapid rise of the water within the reservoir without any detailed monitoring.Finally, the opening of the flood gates was postponed only 3 hours before the break, at 18:00, as the authorities firstly refused, claiming the highway construction site was in danger of flooding.This flood event remains the deadliest failure dam catastrophe in Europe after the Vajont catastrophe in Italy (October 1963, more than 2000 dead).It led to the creation of a National Committee on Dam Safety (CTPB) on 1966.

The January 1980 Hyacinthe cyclone
The January 1980 event is linked with the occurrence of cyclone Hyacinthe that affected Réunion Island in the Southern Indian Ocean over a period of two weeks from the 15th to the 28th January 1980.The exceptional precipitation triggered by the cyclone (e.g. with 6083 mm over a 15 day period) generated significant and generalized floods all over the island, leading to a great amount of damage estimated at around EUR 300 million.A total of 25 fatalities were reported (Fig. 4), as well as extensive damage to road networks and buildings.Indeed, the January 1980 event remains a rainfall world record [8], and spurred the creation of a new risk containment policy for the rivers of Réunion Island.

The November 1999 flood event
From the 12th to the 13th of November 1999, a generalized flood event took place in the Languedoc region of the South of France (Fig. 5).The Aude River and its tributaries were strongly impacted by floods, with a return period estimated at around 100 years.Due to the heavy rainfall and high flow velocities, numerous villages, roads and railways were impacted.In total, 35 fatalities were registered [9], making this event the deadliest since September 1992 in France (41 deaths).Significant damage was recorded, with economic losses estimated at around EURO 770 million [10].Owing to the reports of severe failures in the flood warning process, the November 1999 event partly contributed to the setting up of the national department of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) to improve the forecasting of flash floods resulting from heavy rainfall events [11].

The Februrary 2010 Xynthia storm
From the 27th to the 28 th of February 2010, a violent storm crossed the French Atlantic coast with strong wind gust (140 km/h).Some previous storms were more intensive (e.g.Martin storm on the 26 th of December 1999, 198 km/h, Oléron Island; Klaus storm on the 23rd -25th of January 2009, 170 km/h, Atlantic coast).In fact, this coastal flooding was severe due to a combination of two factors [12]: a storm surge due to a 970 mbar low-pressure and strong wind, with a great equinox tide (coefficient 102 over 120).A total of 47 fatalities are reported (including 41 from submersions), especially on Vendée and on Charente-Maritime departments (Fig. 6).About 200 km of sea dikes have been damaged, as well as many infrastructures (road, EULGJHV UDLOZD\« EXLOGLQJV DQG HFRQRPLF DFWLYLWLHV (crRS VKHOOILVK DTXDFXOWXUH« One million homes were left without power in western France.The total amount of damages is estimated at around EUR 2.5 billion.A national Rapid Inundation Plan was launched by the French Government in February 2011. IORRG HYHQWV LQ )UDQFH IURP WR France.Furthermore, a new risk policy was established, setting out a new framework for flood risk management at the national scale.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Flood fatalities during the March 1930 flood event

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Flood fatalities during the October 1940 flood event

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Flood fatalities during the January 1980 Hyacinthe cyclone

Figure 5 .
Figure 5. Flood fatalities during the November 1999 flood event