Prospects of using new technologies in Russia's electric power industry to comply with international commitments to reduce СО2 emissions

This study addresses the methodology of projecting the electric power industry developments, taking into account environmental constraints. I obtained quantitative assessments of long-term electric power industry development in a Russian region, determined the emission of greenhouse gases from fuel combustion at thermal power plants (TPPs), and the efficiency of technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the electric power industry.


Introduction
Presently, when planning and programming economy development of the countries and regions, the global climate change problem related to emissions of greenhouse gases -carbon dioxide, СО2 being the main among the latter -at fuel combustion is regarded the most acute [1].The constraints on its emission imposed by the Paris Agreement, in fact, define the boundaries impeding the power engineering development, and, consequently, they restrain the economy development, especially in developing countries.At present, it is difficult to estimate how much these constraints are justified, because investigations into the anthropogenous emission effect on the climate and its change have not been completed yet, with the preliminary conclusions being ambiguous and even contradictory [2].
In Russia, a number of Federal Laws, according to which greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced to 75% of the 1990 level by 2020, and to 70% by 2030 [3], have been passed.
There is no real alternative to fossil hydrocarbon fuel as a primary energy carrier over a long perspective.Reducing the carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere may be achieved by: • active promotion of energy-saving technologies; • increase in electric power production efficiency through improving thermodynamic cycles, equipment, fuel combustion techniques, use of fuel elements, etc.; • introduction of multi-purpose power technological installations that, besides electric power, produce additional marketable products (for example, through the catalytic synthesis methods, etc.) increasing the fuel usage coefficient as compared with separate production of electric power and those products; • switching to fuels containing smaller carbon amount (replacing coal with natural gas, or oil motor fuel with hydrogen); • СО 2 recovery in the power installation cycle with its subsequent durable disposal (sequestering).
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for all: e 1, ..., E; r 1, ..., r'..., R; t 1, ..., T, where: for all p 1,...,P, where: is the number of years, over which the power plant p capacity built at the stage b persists (proceeding from the standard life) at the stage t; n t is the number of years at the stage t; In general case, the technological aspect of the power (technology) is described by the following metrics: coefficients determining the consumption and production of energy carriers by the given plant (technology); power installation efficiency coefficient; operation mode; plant life.
As the economic metrics of power plants, I use: specific constant and variable costs related to maintaining power plant capacities and to producing power resources and energy carriers; specific holdings necessary for building (renovating) power plant capacities, energy-saving technologies and emission reduction technologies.

Assessing the efficiency of using new technologies in Russia
Effective (in terms of the CO 2 emission reduction, included) is perfecting the TPP energy production based on [4,7,8]: • introducing coal power-generating units at supercritical (41% eff.) and supercritical (46% eff.) steam parameters; • introducing steam-gas plants (55-60% eff.); • using boilers with circulating fluidized bed at lowgrade-fuel combustion; • using fuels with an increased calorific value, and natural gas; • using technologies of СО 2 recovery and disposal.To assess the performance of the offered methodical approach, I address two scenarios for the Irkutsk Oblast electric power industry development: optimistic and basic [5,6].
The power consumption was projected by considering the economy development and the population perspective metrics.Inasmuch as the planned long-term regional major energy-intensive investment projects, the projection for the need in electric power was performed separately for the industries and services (developed for today) and for new industries (projects) [7][8][9][10].The СО 2 emissions from TPP fuel combustion will exceed the 1990 level by 2025, and reach 36,3 and 33,3 mln.t. in the optimistic and basic scenarios, respectively.By 2030, they decrease provided new power stations are commissioned.
However, if one considers further decrease in the СО 2 emissions, it is necessary to change the structure of the consumed fuel (to use natural gas), or to use new technologies of steam-gas plants (integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), etc.).To implement President's Decrees on the СО 2 emission reduction in any scenario for the Irkutsk Oblast electric power industry development, it is necessary to apply additional measures.Considering the capital investments and operational costs, TPP switching to natural gas is the most inexpensive way (of all the above processes) to reduce СО 2 emissions.Herewith, the СО 2 reduction may reach 20-22 mln.tonnes (Figure 2).

Conclusion
The proposed methodical approach enables to select an optimal version for Russia's (regions') electric power industry development, considering environmental constraints.
I provided an example of assessing the СО 2 emission reduction technology efficiency in Irkutsk Oblast, and showed the necessity to change the structure of the BFF consumption and TPP switching to natural gas.
the energy carrier e import to the region r in year t; R e k r t , , is the extraction of the given energy carrier e by all plants k in the territory of the region r (k r) in year t; Y e r r t , ' is possible import of the energy carrier е from other regions r'; X p r t , is the production capacity of the power plant p in the region r (p r) in year t; p e is the coefficient determining the output (consumption) of the energy carrier e at the plant р ( e p =-1/f p , if the energy carrier is consumed, p e =1, if the energy carrier is produced); of the energy carrier e to other regions r' considering transport losses of the end energy carrier e by customers' categories d in the region r in year t; carrier e export from the region r in year t.All the power plants are split into operating plants, I specify the dynamics of their possible retirement by stages of the settling period of new production capacities.Newly-commissioned capacities at each temporal stage may be restrained and should retire as the standard life comes to an end.To consider the dynamics factor, I introduce the capacity transport equations for each power plant by stages t of the settling period T. For a separate plant p in the region r, this equation looks like:

,,
is the power plant p capacity in the region r in year t; is the residual capacity of the plant p in the region r at the stage t, that was commissioned by the settling period start;

,
is the power plant p capacity introduced at the stage b in the region r;

Table 1 .
Projection of the electric power and heat production in Irkutsk Oblast