Analysis and Future Market Forecast Research of China's End-of-life New Energy Vehicle Recycling and Dismantling Technology

. With the rapid increase in the promotion and application volume of new energy vehicles in China, the number of end-of-life new energy vehicles will increase rapidly in the future. Moreover, it brings difficulties to the dismantling of new energy vehicles because of the flammability and explosiveness characteristics of the power battery in new energy vehicles. This paper analyzes the dismantling technology of end-of-life new energy vehicles in China and abroad, and forecasts the inventory of new energy vehicles and the number of end-of-life new energy vehicle in the future, which has important reference significance for the future development of China's industry. Finally, the paper puts forward suggestions to promote the development of the industry.


Overview
In 2019, the production and sales of China's new energy vehicles have reached 1.242 million and 1.206 million respectively, the inventory has reached 3.81 million vehicles, accounting for 1.46% of the total number of vehicles. In recent years, the inventory of China's new energy vehicles is increasing rapidly. Compared with the traditional vehicle, the power battery of end-of-life new energy vehicle is characterized by being flammable and explosive, so the equipment and technical process used in the process of dismantling are different from the traditional vehicle. China and some countries have carried out the dismantling work of the end-of-life new energy vehicles, and gained some experience. The new energy vehicles popularized and applied in the early stage of our country have entered the scrapping period, and will enter the stage of scale scrapping in the next 2-3 years. The total rated voltage of the power battery is 100-750V. At present, the total rated voltage of the common power battery on the market is about 384V. For example, the rated voltage of the cell made of lithium-ion ferrous phosphate positive material is 3.7V, and the discharge cutoff voltage is 2.5V. Even when the SOC of the power battery is 0, the total voltage of the power battery is still as high as 259V. Under such high voltage, if it is disassembled, packed and transported in an improper way, it is not only easy to cause electric shock casualties, but also once a short circuit occurs, the instantaneous current reaches more than 100A, resulting in the release of a lot of heat and the sharp temperature rise, and it is very easy to cause fire or even explosion. On the other hand, after long-term use, the safety, stability and other properties of waste power battery are far inferior to those of new battery. Therefore, when dealing with the end-oflife new energy vehicle, especially the power battery, it is necessary to strictly abide by the operating procedures, otherwise it is very likely to cause fire and explosion hazards [1,2] .
At present, most of electric vehicles use lithium-ion batteries as power batteries. Lithium ion batteries contain heavy metals such as copper, cobalt, nickel and manganese, as well as lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6), organic carbonate, refractory organic solvents, etc.. Cobalt, nickel, copper and other heavy metals have a cumulative effect in the environment, which will enter the soil and groundwater through the biological chain, eventually harming human health, with great harm [4] . In addition, the components of end-of-life power battery are complex, which will produce a lot of secondary pollution problems in the process of recycling and treatment, and it has a certain degree of danger. In addition, improper disassembly method leads to harmful coolant leakage, which causes serious pollution to the air, water and soil, and damages the health of disassembly personnel.

China has considered the technical requirements for the dismantling of new energy vehicles in the formulation of relevant standards
Due to the great difference between the dismantling of the end-of-life new energy vehicles and the dismantling of the traditional fuel vehicles, the technical differences in the dismantling process of the two types of vehicles are compared in the revised edition of GB22128, and the specific technical requirements for the dismantling process of the end-of-life new energy vehicles are put forward, including the site, personnel, facilities and equipment, safety protection, dismantling process, etc., and the specific dismantling procedures and relevant equipment examples are shown in the table below.    The electrification transformation and development of global vehicle will continue to drive the use scale of new energy vehicles to rise. In the whole life cycle of the product, the corresponding retired new energy vehicles end-of-life new energy vehicle corresponding to the inventory scale will be generated by decommissioning accordingly. It can be predicted that the recycling scale of global new energy vehicles in the future will continue to increase with the growth of inventory. 1 Only BEV and PHEV are included

Foreign countries have begun to build a vehicle power battery recycling system.
For the entrusted recycling mode of the third-party organization, taking Japan Auto Recycling Partnership (JARP) as an example, the organization is a system established by Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association to collect lithium-ion batteries (hereinafter referred to as LiB) for vehicles, which started operation in October 2018, supporting all participants to carry out the recycling business of waste power battery packs nationwide free of charge. At present, JARP has been entrusted by 10 automobile manufacturers, including Toyota and Nissan, to recycle their waste power batteries. In this system, JARP plays an intermediate hub role of information liaison, and its main purpose is to assist vehicle manufacturers in recycling waste power batteries. The operation process is mainly as follows: The dismantling unit (4S shop, maintenance shop, automobile dismantling factory, etc.) of the waste power battery is registered in the system. If there is a battery that needs to be transported, JARP will send the request processing information to JARP. JARP will deliver the packaged power battery pack to the resource-based processing enterprise free of charge according to the demand information.

Developed countries such as Europe, the United State and Japan have strictly implemented the extended producer responsibility system
Developed countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan have strictly implemented the extended producer responsibility system, requiring producers to provide dismantling manuals for their produced models to guide dismantling enterprises to disassemble end-of-life vehicles. For new energy vehicles, manufacturers also provide detailed dismantling information, and make it public on their own websites. In the dismantling manual of new energy vehicles produced by foreign large-scale automobile manufacturers, safety protection and dismantling equipment are required, for example, insulating gloves, safety shoes, goggles and inspection tools are required to be used, and the power battery shall not be dismantled after disassembly, and the battery shall be labelled.

Market Forecast of End-of-life New Energy Vehicle
At present, the proportion of waste vehicle recycling volume in the annual report of the vehicle market developed countries is 4% -6%. On the basis of this data, considering the low residual value of the used battery electric vehicles, the scrap rate is usually higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, and different scrap rates are set according to different models. The setting of scrap rate is shown in the table below.  on the guidance of dismantling enterprises in the form of publicly providing dismantling instruction manuals, so as to promote the technological level of the industry.

Develop the industrial standards for technical requirements of dismantling of end-of-life new energy vehicles
In view of the current situation that the recycling and dismantling technology of end-of-life new energy vehicles has not been popularized, the industrial standards for the technical requirements of recycling and dismantling of end-of-life new energy vehicles shall be studied and formulated as soon as possible, and scientific and reasonable specifications shall be prepared for the enterprise infrastructure, equipment, personnel, entry detection and classification, on-site transfer, safety protection, disassembly and storage of power battery, vehicle body dismantling process and other general technical requirements, etc., so that the whole industry can master the dismantling technology of end-of-life new energy vehicles as soon as possible.

Pilot technology upgrading of end-of-life new energy vehicle enterprises in new energy vehicle promotion and application cities
Compared with traditional vehicles, the scale of end-oflife new energy vehicles in China is still small, and enterprises need to invest capital, manpower and material resources to upgrade before they can recycle and dismantle end-of-life new energy vehicle. Therefore, not every enterprise is willing to carry out the business of recycling, dismantling and discarding the end-of-life new energy vehicles. At present, China's new energy vehicle scrapping demand is mainly concentrated in the cities with the largest number of new energy vehicles in promotion and application. Therefore, it is suggested to carry out the technology upgrading pilot of end-of-life new energy vehicle enterprises in these cities to make them have the dismantling capacities, so as to ensure that the end-of-life new energy vehicles appearing in batches can be recycled by enterprises. In the pilot process, industry organizations and research institutions are encouraged to guide enterprises to master dismantling technology through training and other ways, to have the ability of dismantling, and to encourage technical cooperation among enterprises.