Reproduction of human potential in the Ural federal district in Russia under the new normal conditions

. The article analyzes the dynamics of the main indicators characterizing the conditions and results of human potential development in the regions included in the Ural Federal District of Russia, including labor productivity. Particular attention is paid to assessing the regions' intellectual potential, indicators of development of a scientific activity, and reproduction of scientific potential. The trends of the number of scientific organizations, the number of scientific workers and graduate students, and research costs are analyzed. The development of innovation infrastructure facilities in the regions of the Ural Federal District is considered separately. The conclusion is drawn about a significant and increasing unevenness in the conditions of a new normal.


Introduction
The industrial mode of production has exhausted its potential, and its preservation makes the regions depressed, losing their development opportunities in the coming years. Over the past decade, regional economies have faced several problems, which together determine the conditions of a "new normal" for the region's modern development. Studying the features of the development of Russia's regions in these conditions is an essential and urgent task for today. Problems and prospects of changing economic conditions and embedding the Russian economy in the conditions of the "new normal" considered by S. Glazyev [1], V. Bochko [2], O. Evstigneeva [3], Ya. Silin with colleagues [4], A. Tatarkin [9]. My colleagues and I also pointed at the importance of analyzing regional development unevenness in the newly emerging conditions [6,7]. The problems of uneven development of the Russian economy have been considered earlier, and outstanding results were obtained by A. Vorotnikov [8], V. Ryazanov [9], V. Seliverstov [10], A.Shastitko [11].
New normal (concerning the regional economy) is a system of ideas developed among regional actors about the level of socio-economic development based on the existing production, technological, financial, and human potential for a particular region. Moreover, for different regions, the content of "normality" will depend on their socio-economic development level. Depending on this level, regions can be divided into regions of the Center (their economic potential allows for high rates of socio-economic development and creates opportunities for a transition to a new way of life) and peripheries (which do not have such potential) [1].
The dependence of the peripheral regions on the Center reduces their need to form their own "intellectual melting pots," in which intellectual elites are created that can overcome the technological backwardness of the regions. In Russia, where the dependence of the national economy on the Center is high, the development of regions is largely determined by the Center's situation. The Center, having limited resources, is forced to make decisions about their concentration only in a limited number of areas. The development of the national and regional economies in a given period urgently requires the transition of the regional economies to a new reality, to a new normal. The term was introduced by the scientific revolution Mohamed A. El-Erian [12]. R. McNaimy [13] and D. Pletnev [14] wrote about the new normal. Under the new normal, they understand the time of new opportunities for investors who can take on investment risks.

Methodology and data
Based on the above approaches, it is necessary to study the opportunities, resources, and abilities of the Ural Federal District's regions, the transition to a new normal, technological structure, and the prerequisites for economic growth. The research uses data related to the development of new technological structures, the conditions for the development of human potential, and its result, expressed in terms of "labor productivity." The analysis is based on data from Rosstat on the development of Russian regions in 1996-2017 and data from regional development institutions.

Results
The level of technological and economic development reflects the basic indicator of labor productivity growth. A sharp decrease in the increase (up to a decrease) in labor productivity was observed in 2009. The decrease in labor productivity in the regions was: in the Sverdlovsk region -18.9%, in the Chelyabinsk region -23.3%, in the Kurgan region -3.3%, in the Tyumen region -14.3%. From 2012 to 2017, a decrease in labor productivity was observed in all regions, or close to 0 ( Fig. 1).
The new economic structure presumes a different than today, the structure of the regional economy, based on the use of all available resources and industries based on old technologies. Contradictions between the old industrial economic structure and the nascent new structure of production are developing and deepening. Acceleration of processes, and the transition to a new quality largely depend on regional elites' mobility and economic interests, their ability to give impulses to new development. The transition to a new technological structure depends on the institutional environment of the regions. The speed of new factors occurrence creates the conditions for the region's transition to a new normal, the Centers' transformation capable of creating the conditions for such a transition and their ability to pull the periphery to the Center.
Despite the growth of the regions main indicators, the development of the Center and the periphery is impossible without the "intellectual melting pots" formation. It can significantly affect the qualitative transformation of the regional economies. Let us analyze the indicators characterizing the "intellectual melting pots" of the Ural Federal District regions, through the indicators of the scientific potential of the regions of the Ural Federal District. The highest scientific potential is characteristic of the Sverdlovsk region.  Table 1  Also noteworthy are the difficulties with the training of highly qualified personnelgraduate students. The data on defenses is even more deplorable, but even the trends in the number of students show that the decline is 1.5 -2 times. Naturally, this affects the quality of scientific research and the reproduction of the potential of higher education, and in general, the training system.

Sverdlovsk Region Tyumen Region
On the Ural Federal District territory, an economic and organizational structure has emerged, represented by the complex interdependence and interconnections of territories with different levels of socio-economic development. The basis of the industrial potential of the regions is the industrial structure. In the regions, prerequisites for the transition to a new technological structure are being formed, but they are point-like. In the regions, conditions have not been created for realizing the potential of the region's industry and "intellectual melting pots." The ability to make the transition to new normal is, first of all, great for the Center (constituent entity of the district) of the Sverdlovsk region. Under certain conditions, such opportunities arise in the Chelyabinsk region. It is difficult to carry out this transition to the peripheral region (Kurgan region). Creating the conditions for such a transition is associated with additional resources, not the area itself.  (Table 1). The primary forms of innovative infrastructure are disclosed in fig. 4. The dynamics of the number of innovative infrastructure in the Ural Federal District and regions are presented on federal information resources. The figures show the subjects of priority development in the Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Kurgan, and Tyumen regions in 2017 and in 2019. In the Sverdlovsk region, there are three such territories, in Chelyabinsk -5, in Kurgan -three. Recently, industrial and technological clusters have been commissioned in the regions to develop. In the Sverdlovsk region in 2019, there were eight such, in Chelyabinsk -five, in Kurgan -two. Industrial parks are being developed. In 2019, there were six industrial parks in the Sverdlovsk region, three in the Chelyabinsk region, two in the Kurgan region, and two in the Tyumen region. Recently, technology parks were created. In 2019, there were three of them: in the Sverdlovsk region -three, in the Chelyabinsk region -one, in the Tyumen region -one. In 2019, in the Sverdlovsk region works eight business incubators, respectively in the Chelyabinsk region -three, in the Kurgan regionone, in the Tyumen region -two. In general, the purpose of the Center is to help align the socio-economic development of the regions. It is necessary to carry out the transition from the formation of a strategy for

Conclusion
Thus, the spatial development of the Ural Federal District regions under the new normal is characterized by high unevenness, which intensifies as the specifics of the "new normal" are revealed. The contrast between the Center and the periphery regions in the reproduction of scientific potential and its application in the real sector of the economy looks particularly sharp. Moreover, the development of innovative infrastructure as a prerequisite for the emergence of "intellectual melting pots" is prolonged, especially in peripheral regions.