Long-term tendencies in climate change of the Urals due to global warming

. During the observation period, the annual air temperature increased: in Yekaterinburg (1832-2018) by 3,1°C, in Zlatoust (1881-2018) by 2,2°C, in Kurgan (1894-2018) by 2,2°C and in Shadrinsk (1894-2018) by 2,1°C. The analogical climate change was noted for the period 1966-2018. The strongest warming is observed in winter (by 2,3-3,0°C), the weakest warming is observed in spring (by 0,8-1,7°C). We noted an increase the annual amount of precipitation in Ivdel (by 68,2 mm), Shadrinsk (by 50,9 mm) and Krasnoufimsk (by 43,6 mm). Also marked an increase the amount of precipitation during the growing season in Ivdel (by 43,9 mm), Shadrinsk (by 42,8 mm) and Krasnoufimsk (by 26,8 mm). The annual amount of precipitation increased in Chelyabinsk and Yekaterinburg, but the amount of precipitation during the growing season decreased in Kurgan. Favorable changes in the agro-climatic conditions of growing season were noted in Shadrinsk and Zlatoust. Unfavorable changes in hydrothermal coefficient for cultivated plants were noted in Chelyabinsk, Kurgan, Troitsk, Yekaterinburg and Bredy. Identified the need to introduce an irrigation system for cultivated plants of the southern districts (Chelyabinsk region).


Introduction
Global climate change is the most important scientific problem of the modern era, which determines the survival of human civilization [1][2][3]. According to the World Meteorological Organization from 1850 to 2009 the average global temperature on Earth increased by 0.88°С [4]. Numerous studies show that agriculture is significantly affected by ongoing climate change. Global warming significantly affects the agro-climatic potential of agroecosystems [5][6], the phytosanitary state of agrophytocenoses [7][8][9], the physical and agrochemical properties of the soil [10][11][12][13], the efficiency of fertilizers [14], and the stability of agricultural production [15][16][17]. Global climate change can have a multidirectional impact on agricultural production, and therefore falls within the sphere of interests of agricultural science. Identify patterns in changes of the local climate we can develop a set of measures and minimize possible damage of the agro-industrial complex [1,18].
The aim of the research was to identify long-term tendencies in climate change of the Urals (the largest industrial and agricultural region of Russia).

Materials and methods
The object of research is a complex of meteorological data from the Chelyabinsk weather station and the time series of All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information -World Data Centre [19][20][21]. When analyzing changes in air temperature and the amount of precipitation, special attention was paid to the period from 1966 to 2019.
Data processing and identification of patterns in the dynamics of the studied climatic indicators were carried out using the standard Excel package and dynamic modeling methods [22].

Results and discussion
The longest series of observations in the Urals is available at the Yekaterinburg weather station (since 1832). The average annual air temperature here in the XIX century averaged 0,6°C, in the first half of the XX century -1,3°C, in the second half of the XX century -2,3°C, and at the beginning of the XXI century -3,4°C (Fig. 1).
In analyze the average annual air temperatures by the direct trunk function method, it was found that global warming significantly affect at the agro-climatic conditions of the Urals. The air temperature increased: in Yekaterinburg (1832-2018) by 3,1°C, in Zlatoust  Analysis of meteorological characteristics for 9 stations from 1966 to 2018 showed that the process of climate change of the Urals is heterogeneous. The average annual temperature increase uniformly (1,6-2,0°C). The annual amount of precipitation growing in Ivdel, Yekaterinburg, Shadrinsk and Krasnoufimsk (by 43,6-68,2 mm); slowly increasing in Chelyabinsk (by 32,8 mm); decreasing in Troitsk (by 9,6 mm), Bredy (by 29,5 mm) and Zlatoust (by 65 mm) and not changing in Kurgan (2,6 mm) ( Table 1) The amount of precipitation during the growing season decrease in Zlatoust (mountain-forest zone of the Chelyabinsk region) by 48,7 mm and Bredy (steppe zone of the Chelyabinsk region) by 45,5 mm. The amount of precipitation during the growing season slightly decrease in Troitsk (by 22,7 mm), Kurgan (by 13,7 mm), Yekaterinburg (by 0,1 mm) and Chelyabinsk (by 3,2 mm).
At  The most important integral indicator for assessing the agro-climatic conditions of the region is Selyaninov's hydrothermal coefficient (HTC). growing season ceased to be excessively wet and the HTC decreased from 2,29 to 1,79) and in Shadrinsk (it became rather wet and HTC increased from 1,18 to 1,26). A deterioration in conditions for the cultivated plants is noted in Chelyabinsk, Kurgan, Troitsk and Bredy. In the steppe zone of the Chelyabinsk region (where the HTC decreased from 0,87 to 0,62) it becomes impossible to obtain the harvests without irrigation. In Yekaterinburg, changes in agro-climatic conditions are not catastrophic yet (Figure 2). 4. Favorable changes in the agro-climatic conditions of the growing season were noted in Shadrinsk (where the hydrothermal coefficient increased from 1,18 to 1,26) and in Zlatoust (where the growing season ceased to be excessively humid and HTC decreased from 2,29 to 1,79). A deterioration of conditions for cultivated plants and decreased HTC is noted in Chelyabinsk by 0,12, in Kurgan by 0,14, in Troitsk by 0,17, in Yekaterinburg by 0,20 and in Bredy by 0,25. 5. Climate change at the Urals requires agricultural science to create new varieties of plants with a higher adaptive potential, to develop scientifically grounded zonal farming systems, to increase the resistance of cultivated plants to abiotic and biotic stresses. The development of adaptive cultivation technologies and an irrigation system for the southern regions of the Urals is urgent.