An Empirical Analysis of the Industrial Trade Relationship between China and Central Asia from the Perspective of the Belt and Road Economic Belt

The Central Asian countries are very rich in mineral resources. They are an important production area of the world's energy resources and an export area of the world's energy industry, which greatly compensates for the shortage of China's overseas energy resources supply. China and the Central Asian countries have complementary industrial advantages and the continuous development of economic and trade between the two sides. Reached a new height. This article selects relevant statistics of import and export products of representative industries in China and Central Asia in recent years, and attempts to explore the industrial status of China’s and Central Asian countries’ industrial imports and exports from multiple perspectives, hoping to gain influence on China and Central Asian countries. Industrial import and export industry factors, and to these industrial factors to further put forward the development of China and Central Asian countries industry import and export related industries countermeasures.


Introduction
Since the reform and opening up, China has actively taken part in the wave of world economic development. The investment in education and scientific research has continued to increase, productivity has rapidly increased, and foreign economic exchange activities have continued to increase. Based on the current status of industrial trade between the two parties, the final selection of light industry, heavy industry and foreign economic cooperation, products of these three representative industries, textile, steel, contracted project turnover, import and export trade status data for China and Central Asian countries Detailed analysis of the trade.

Current status of import and export trade between China and Central Asian countries
From 2008 to 2017, the total import and export volume of China and Central Asian countries showed an upward trend, [1] but the change in the import and export volume of China and Central Asian countries was significantly larger than that of China and other countries in the world. From 2009 to 2013, China's imports from Central Asian countries increased year by year, but from 2013 to 2016, China's imports from Central Asian countries declined year by year, as shown in the blue histogram in Figure 1 (unit: ten thousand US dollars).

Fig1.
China's total import and export volume and growth rate from Central Asian countries from 2008 to 2017

China's textile industry exports to Central Asian countries
From 2008 to 2017, the export value of China's textile industry to Central Asian countries increased slowly, showing an overall upward trend. [2] From 2008 to 2012, the total amount of China's textile industry exported to Central Asian countries reached US$57.334 million, and from 2013 to 2017 it reached more than US$7229772 million, an overall increase of 20.68%, [3] as shown in Figure-2

Factors influencing China's industrial import and export trade with Central Asian countries
This article will select relatively important factors such as China's tariffs, China's total population, Central Asian countries' per capita income, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar to conduct an empirical analysis of China and Central Asian countries' industrial import and export. [4] 3.1 The industrial import and export volume of China and Central Asian countries and their influencing factors are shown in Table 1.

Table1. China and Central Asian countries' industrial import and export volume and its influencing factors
Year China and Central Asian countries industrial import and export volume (ten thousand US dollars)   Prob(F~statistic) 0.000000 Table 2 is obtained by using the ordinary least squares estimation model: R~squared=0.965373, (R2) the goodness of fit is close to 1, and the Prob. values all pass the test, the fit is good, and, therefore, the overall linear relationship between China's and Central Asian countries' industrial imports and exports and the above explanatory variables is significant.

Modeling
Set the function of China's and Central Asian countries' industrial import and export volume Among them, CAIE represents the industrial import and export value of China and Central Asian countries; T represents Chinese tariffs; P represents the total population of China; I represents the gross national income per capita of Central Asian countries; e represents the average annual exchange rate level; u represents the random disturbance item.  Table 3, the probability is at a significant level of 5%, the P value is greater than 0.05, and the null hypothesis that there is no heteroscedasticity is accepted, indicating that the model has no heteroscedasticity and no correction is required. Based on the above test, it can be concluded that, under other conditions that remain unchanged, when T increases by 1 unit, it will cause a reduction of 43.039 units in the industrial import and export volume of China and Central Asian countries; when P increases by 1 unit each , Will increase the import and export volume of China and Central Asian countries by 1.384 units; each time I increases by 1 unit, it will increase the import and export volume of China and Central Asian countries by 9.098 units; when e increases by 1 unit, it will It will cause the import and export volume of China and Central Asian countries to increase by 3.450 units.

Conclusions
There is a positive correlation between the total amount of import and export industries between China and Central Asian countries and China's total population, Central Asian countries' per capita gross national income, and exchange rate. Among them, changes in the Central Asian countries' per capita gross national income affect China and Central Asia. National imports and exports have a relatively large impact, and Chinese tariffs have a negative correlation with the imports and exports of China and Central Asian countries.
China's tariffs have a relatively large impact on the total import and export industries of China and Central Asian countries, and have a negative correlation. This is mainly because China is one of the top three important trade partners of Central Asian countries. The changes in China's tariffs directly affect the number of commodities in the import and export industry, and influence and interact with each other. Under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, the degree of increase and decrease of China's tariff rate is inversely related to the development speed of Central Asian countries' trade. However, tariffs can protect domestic industries and markets. After imposing tariffs on imported commodities, they increase the cost of imported commodities, weaken its competitiveness with similar domestic commodities, affect the sales of imported commodities, and thus protect domestic industries and The role of the market. The increase in the price of imported commodities will increase the price of similar domestic products and bring more profits to the relevant manufacturers. For exporting countries, import taxes imposed by importing countries will affect the reduction of export commodities, the quantity of exports, and the decline in prices, causing losses to exporting countries. It is necessary to dialectically view the impact of Chinese tariffs on trade between China and Central Asian countries.
The total population of China is constantly increasing. China has superb technology, abundant capital and a large number of talents. Central Asian countries have very rich natural energy resources. Cooperation between the two sides can complement each other's strengths, solve needs, and maximize benefits. However, in the past two or three years, the import and export volume between China and Central Asian countries has decreased. Although it is affected by the adjustment of China's domestic economic structure, the greater impact is that it is affected by European and American countries in the process of trade cooperation with Central Asian countries. Squeeze. Therefore, respecting the differences between the two sides, understanding the national conditions of China and Central Asian countries, and maintaining friendly exchanges between the two sides have an important role in the import and export of relevant industries between China and Central Asian countries.
The gross national income per capita of Central Asian countries has a positive correlation with the import and export of related industries between China and Central Asian countries. The economies of scale in Central Asian countries are relatively small, and their development is slow. Central Asian countries have also joined the trend of international division and reorganization in recent years to strengthen their economies within Central Asian countries. Therefore, China should pay attention to the development situation of Central Asian countries, break the limitations of traditional import and export trade between China and Central Asian countries, develop towards diversified trade methods, and increase the trade demand of Central Asian countries for China.
The import and export of China and Central Asian countries are greatly affected by changes in exchange rates. The appreciation of the renminbi will increase the price of products exported from China to Central Asian countries, leading to a decrease in the demand for Chinese exports from Central Asian countries, and the trade value of China's exports to Central Asian countries will be much larger than that of Central Asian countries. Thus inhibiting the development of export trade. Although the import and export volume of China and Central Asian countries has generally maintained an upward trend, the growth rate is gradually slowing down. Therefore, it is very important to change the trading methods of China's exports to Central Asian countries.

Countermeasures and Suggestions
All countries in Central Asia have completed the transformation from planned economy to market economy, but the planned economy in Central Asia is still strong, and the economic environment and international investment of Central Asian countries are threatened by terror. Therefore, it is necessary to know the political situation and strategic guidelines of Central Asian countries, and can make more use of the construction of the Belt and Road Economic Belt, [5] inviting high-level intergovernmental governments to strengthen policy communication. An effective communication mechanism between various governments has been provided to provide a strong support for bilateral economic and trade cooperation.
China mainly exports textile-, electromechanical and other labor-intensive and low-value-added products to Central Asian countries, and mainly imports raw materials such as oil, natural gas, and steel to Central Asian countries. Most of the reasons for this are that China's economic structure is still dominated by processing and manufacturing industries, while Central Asian countries are dominated by abundant energy resources. In order to break this situation that may cause trade friction in the future and optimize the economic and trade structure of both sides, China can use the "Silk Road Fund" and "Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank" to increase its focus on the petrochemical industry and labor-intensive industries in Central Asian countries. The industry's investment efforts, the establishment of factories, the transfer of China's surplus production capacity, and industries with low value-added commodities, helping the Central Asian countries to complete infrastructure construction also promote the upgrading of China's economic structure. Improve China's status in Central Asian countries, reduce trade frictions, and enhance bilateral economic and trade relations.
The geographical location of Central Asian countries is very important. It is a bridge between China and Europe and a starting point on the Belt and Road Economic Belt. Maintain the complementary advantages of both sides, help Central Asian countries complete infrastructure construction, improve the interconnected transportation and communication unified transportation system, establish a comprehensive multi-level and wide-ranging transportation network, so that Central Asia and Central Europe trains can border and build a global Banli China Circle plays a fundamental role in China's import and export development.
The trade between China and Central Asian countries is highly complementary. The establishment of a free trade zone can speed up the flow of production factors and promote the efficiency of resource allocation. The establishment of a China~Central Asian country free trade zone can not only reduce tax rates for both parties, but also cooperate. The development of humanities exchanges, tourism, education, medical and health care. It can also draw on past experience and establish economic and trade cooperation parks, science and technology industrial parks in Central Asian countries, etc., [6] to provide a platform for the exchange of talents and technologies and promote the common development of China and Central Asian countries.