The Impact and Empirical Analysis of the Development Level of E-commerce Industry on China’s Export Trade

With its advantages of low cost and high efficiency, e-commerce is not only favored by ordinary consumers, but also effectively promotes SMEs to find business opportunities and win the market. This article starts with the development scale of China's e-commerce industry and the status quo of export trade, and measures the overall index of China's e-commerce industry development level from 2008 to 2018 through empirical methods to analyze its impact on China's export trade. The results show that the development level of the e-commerce industry has a significant positive impact on China's export trade. Finally, it analyzes the existing problems in the development of China's e-commerce industry. 1 Analysis of the status quo and impact of China's e-commerce industry export trade 1.1 Development status of China's e-commerce industry

Online retail sales amounted to According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics [1], the transaction volume of China's e-commerce industry in 2018 was 31.63 trillion yuan (the blue bar in Figure 1, the unit is trillion yuan), an increase of 8.5% year-on-year the orange9.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, as shown in the data in In 2018, China's IPv6 addresses were 41,079 blocks/32, with an annual growth rate of 75.3%. There were 21,243,478 CN domain names with an annual growth rate of 1.9%. International export broadband was 8,946,570 Mbps, with an annual growth rate of 22.2%. It shows that China's network resources are growing rapidly, and the infrastructure of China's e-commerce industry is improving day by day, and the entire industry continues to develop [2].The number of Chinese websites and webpages increased rapidly from 2010 to 2017. As of the end of 2018, the number of Chinese websites was 5.23 million (the blue bar in Figure 2 with 10,000 units), and the number of webpages was 281.6 billion (  The accelerating integration of China's e-commerce industry and the real economy has driven more people to engage in e-commerce related work. As shown in the data in Figure 3: Not only are direct employees growing (blue histogram in Figure 3, 10,000 people), but indirect employees are also increasing (orange histogram in Figure  3, 10,000 people). According to estimates by the China Internet Economics Research Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics, China's ecommerce industry employed 47 million people in 2018, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year. The number of Chinese netizens has been rising as shown in Figure 4, increasing from 210 million in 2007 to 821 million in 2018 (blue bar in Figure 4, 100 million people). The ratio increased from 24% in 2007 to 99.1% in June 2019, indicating that mobile payment penetrates all areas of life, and people only need to carry a mobile phone to meet their needs when they go out. Therefore, the increase in the number of Internet users has promoted the development of e-commerce in Lao to a certain extent.  The popularity of the Internet is a necessary condition for the rapid development of e-commerce. "Internet +" has become the mainstream trend of economic development in the future. Artificial intelligence, big data, 5G and other cutting-edge science and technology are highly integrated with the real economy, and will surely produce economic development. New kinetic energy. As can be seen from Figure 5, China's Internet penetration rate has been increasing, and it has reached 59.6% by 2018, an increase of 3.8% from 2017. With the popularization of Internet shopping online, the scale of online shopping users in China has been continuously increasing from 2007 to 2018, with an average annual compound growth rate of 17%, which is a very rapid growth. In 2018, China's online users reached 610 million (the blue bar chart in Figure 6, Unit 100 million people), as shown in the data in Figure 6 below. The scale of online shopping users is one of the important factors to measure the potential of e-commerce development. Therefore, it can be said that the development potential of China's e-commerce industry is great, and the level of transactions is also gradually improving.

China's e-commerce industry development potential
2 Impact of e-commerce industry on export trade

Impact of e-commerce transaction level
The participation of e-commerce in international trade can reduce transaction costs, increase the types of traded goods, and give play to the competitive advantages of SMEs, thereby increasing the transaction volume of ecommerce enterprises and increasing the number of online shoppers, further promoting the level of e-commerce transactions and ultimately affecting China's export trade amount.

Impact of e-commerce infrastructure
Electronic data exchange is a data exchange tool widely used in the world. It can standardize the company's daily economic information data according to the agreement and transmit it back and forth. Only standardized and standardized logistics services can improve the efficiency of e-commerce transactions, increase consumer satisfaction, and help increase the sales profits of ecommerce companies, thereby promoting the growth of export trade.

E-commerce Human Resources Impact
The vigorous development of e-commerce will inevitably increase the market's demand for high-end talents such as e-commerce and international trade. International trade competition will force companies to improve the overall level of human resources and optimize local talent resources through corporate training and other means.The goverment effectively improve the level of human capital, promote the improvement of labor efficiency, and finally optimize the operating environment of e-commerce companies, enhance their international competitiveness, and ultimately expand export trade.

Impact of e-commerce development potential
E-commerce has promoted the formation of a virtual trading market, allowing commodity transaction information to fully flow around the world, transaction information is more open, transparent, and time-sensitive, thereby reducing the asymmetry of transaction information between buyers and sellers, and avoiding the incomplete impact of transaction information on transactions the interests of both parties. In the above formula, EX is the total export trade, ECDI indicates the development level of the e-commerce industry, and REER indicates the actual effective exchange rate of RMB. β0 represents the constant term, β1 and β2 are the regression coefficients of two variables [3]. In order to eliminate the influence of heteroscedasticity and dimension, each variable is analyzed after natural logarithm processing. The original data description statistics of each variable are as follows. According to the statistical description of the data in Table 2, the minimum value of the total export trade is 8.2, the maximum value is 16.42, and the average value is 12.91, indicating that the changes in total export trade over the years vary greatly; the minimum value of the e-commerce industry development level is 0.368, the maximum value It is 1.816, with an average value of 1, indicating that the development level of the e-commerce industry has varied greatly over the years; the minimum effective exchange rate of the RMB is 97.87 and the maximum is 125.05, indicating that the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB varies greatly over the years. And the statistical significance of each variable Jarque-Bera P value is greater than 0.05, indicating that the total export trade, the level of e-commerce industry development, and the actual effective exchange rate of RMB all follow a normal distribution.

Related analysis
This article first analyzes each factor and total export trade, and the relevant analysis results are shown in Table 3 Note: ***, **, and * represent 1%, 5%, and 10% significance levels, respectively According to the relevant test results, the correlation coefficient between the development level of the ecommerce industry and the total export trade is 0.8898, which has passed the significance test at the 1% significance level, indicating that there is a positive correlation between the development level of the ecommerce industry and the total export trade. The author further tests the stability of each variable. This article will use the more common ADF test method to test the stability of each variable. The test results are shown in Table 4below.

Cointegration test
It can be seen from the unit root test results that each variable is a stationary sequence of the same order. For this reason, the author further carries out the co-integration test and uses the Johansen co-integration test. The results of the cointegration test are shown in Table 5.
From the trace test and the maximum eigenvalue test results as shown in Table 6, the significance level of the total export trade and the e-commerce industry development level [4], the actual effective exchange rate of RMB in "None" is less than 0.05, and the co-integration test is passed, indicating that the total export trade. There is a co-integration relationship with the development level of the e-commerce industry and the real effective exchange rate of RMB. To this end, OLS regression is further performed and the regression equation is obtained as follows. The regression equation can be obtained from the regression coefficient results in Table 7.
 Among them, the model fitting degree is 0.989582, and the adjusted fitting degree is 0.986978, indicating that the model fitting degree is high, and the development level of e-commerce industry and the actual effective exchange rate of RMB have a high degree of explanation for the total export trade. The significance of F test is 0. Passing the F test shows that the regression results of the model are reliable.
The regression coefficient of the e-commerce industry development level at the 1% significance level is 0.208505, indicating that there is a significant positive correlation between the e-commerce industry development level and the total export trade. That is, for every positive percentage change in the development level of the ecommerce industry, the total export trade also changes positively by 0.208505 percentage points. The improvement of the development level of the e-commerce industry has played a positive role in promoting the total export trade.
The regression coefficient of the actual effective exchange rate of RMB at the 1% significance level is 0.824311, indicating that the effective exchange rate of RMB is significantly positively related to the total export trade. That is, for every positive change in the real effective exchange rate of RMB, the total export trade also changes positively by 0.824311 percentage points. The real effective exchange rate of RMB has a positive effect on the total export trade. Note: ***, **, and * represent 1%, 5%, and 10% significance levels, respectively.

Conclusions
This article measures the development level of China's ecommerce industry from 2008 to 2018 by establishing a comprehensive and scientific e-commerce index system [5]. The measurement results show that the development level of China's e-commerce industry from 2008 to 2018 has increased year by year and developed at a faster rate. However, the development of China's ecommerce industry is still not perfect, facing various problems, there is still much room for improvement. The empirical results also show that increasing the level of ecommerce industry will have a positive impact on China's export trade. When regressing on the overall e-commerce index, it was found to be significant at a 1% significance level, indicating that the e-commerce industry development level has a positive impact on China's export trade. It can be seen from the empirical regression results of the extended model in this paper that e-commerce has become an important factor affecting China's export trade, and the improvement of its development level is conducive to increasing China's total export trade, thereby driving China's economic growth. However, due to the current limitations of China's capital and technology, the focus of different reforms on e-commerce is also different. As can be seen from the regression results of e-commerce sub-indicators, different first-level indicators have different impacts on China's export trade [6]. Therefore, we should first reform the indicators with greater impact, increase capital investment, and better promote the development of China's import and export trade.