The relationship between human development and the cost of addictive goods in the regions of Russia

The study is aimed to establish the relationship between the indicator of the share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages in household final consumption expenditures and the value of the human development index. The object of research is the regions of the Russian Federation. The research is based on methods of the mathematical and statistical analysis of data of UNDP and Rosstat. Alcohol expenditures are decreasing in almost all regions against the background of the growth of the human development index. At the same time, half of the regions with a relatively low human development index have higher spending on alcoholic beverages and vice versa. In the Stavropol Territory and the Ivanovo Region, spending on alcoholic beverages is growing and there is a direct link with the human development index. The leaders in spending on alcoholic beverages are the Rostov Region, the Jewish Autonomous Region, the Kirov Region, the Murmansk Region, Karelia, the Kostroma Region, the Kaluga Region, the Komi Republic, the Khabarovsk Territory, and the Pskov Region. In these regions, except for Komi, against the background of high spending on alcoholic beverages, a relatively low human development index. In St. Petersburg with a high index of development, high expenditures on alcoholic beverages, in Moscow and the Republic of Tatarstan, also with a high human development index, expenditures on alcoholic beverages are average. North Ossetia, Dagestan, the Republic of Ingushetia, the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic, the Chechen Republic have the lowest expenditures on alcoholic beverages among all constituent entities of Russia, but also relatively low human development index indicators. The regions with low expenditures on alcoholic beverages are also the Tambov Region, Novgorod Region, Ryazan Region, Republic of Adygea, Buryatia, Republic of Kalmykia, Republic of Altai, Magadan Region, Irkutsk Region, Ulyanovsk Region.


Introduction
The study of the relationship between the consumption of specific addictive goods and the level of human development is relevant. Recognizing the relationship between them will contribute to a better understanding of the social and economic factors that influence the consumption of addictive goods. This paper examines the relationship between the share of spending on alcoholic beverages in household final consumption expenditures and the human development index in the regions of Russia.
The results of the empirical study will allow us to better understand the reality of the impact of alcohol consumption on the development of human capital and vice versa, which should become the starting point for state and public regional regulation.

Theoretical concepts
The Human Development Index (HDI) is an integral indicator that combines three main components of human development: longevity and health, measured by life expectancy at birth; level of education, i.e. the ability to acquire knowledge, measured by the average length of study and the expected duration of study; the ability to achieve a decent standard of living as measured by gross national income (GNI) per capita.
The HDI ranges from 0 to 1, where closer to 1 means higher human development in one country. UNDP classifies countries based on the HDI. Countries with an HDI less than 0.550 belong to countries with a low level of human development. Then countries with an HDI between 0.550 and 0.699 are classified as countries with an average human development level. Countries with an HDI between 0.700 and 0.799 are classified as countries with a high level of human development. Finally, countries with an HDI above 0.800 are classified as very highly developed.
The level of consumption of addictive goods affects each of the three components of the human development index: health and life expectancy of the consumer; academic performance; employment and labor productivity, etc. However, studies of the relationship between the consumption of specific addictive goods and the level of human development are underrepresented. Following works are noteworthy: F.S. Silva, H.A.V. Velasquez, N.F.O. Robles, M. Hynes, M. de Marco [17]; A.I. Gil, H.A. Molin [18]; T. Soseko, F. Aren [19]; S. Vasenev [20].

Methodology
This is a quantitative study using data published by UNDP and Rosstat.
The research is based on the methods of mathematical and statistical analysis: grouping, method of indicators, correlation analysis, regression analysis, factor analysis, index method, sampling. Regression analysis was used to study the relationship between the cost of purchasing alcoholic beverages and human development.
It was carried out in Russia as a whole and in 82 of its regions. In the time period 2000-2017. the coefficients of determination and correlation were calculated, trends in the change in the share of expenditures and HDI, the direction of the relationship between the HDI and expenditures on alcoholic beverages were determined.
The value of the approximation reliability (R²) was calculated for all regions. The determination coefficient takes values on the segment [0; 1]. Statistical models can be divided into quality levels depending on the coefficient. For good quality models, its value is from 0.8 to 1. For acceptable models, its value should be between 0.5 and 0.8. Poor quality models have a range of 0 to 0.5.
The correlation coefficient (R) takes values on the interval [-1; 1]. A value of 1 indicates the presence of complete coincidence between the ranks of the studied variables, -1 indicates that the ranks are completely opposite. In the absence of a relationship between the ranks of the variables, the correlation coefficient will be equal to 0. The relationship differs depending on how much the modulus of the correlation coefficient approaches 1. When the value of the modulus of the correlation coefficient is more than 0.9 -the relationship is very close, with 0.8 -0.9 -the relationship is close, with 0.7 -0.8 -the relationship is acceptable, with 0.5 -0.7 -the relationship is significant, if the value is less than 0.5, the connection is weak.

Data
Human Development Index statistics are presented in the annual Human Development Report, published by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) since 1990, as an independent, analytically and empirically informed discussion of critical development issues, trends and policies. Data on the share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages in household final consumption expenditures, characterizing the level of consumption of alcoholic beverages, are presented on the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat). Table 1 presents the results of the analysis of changes in the regions of Russia by year in the share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages in the expenditures on the final consumption of households and the human development index. Based on the negative values of the correlation coefficient, in 79 constituent entities of the Russian Federation out of 82 in the analyzed period in the dynamics the share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages tends to decrease. In 33 regions, this trend is quite stable, since the modulus of the correlation coefficient is in the interval from 0.8 to 1.0 (the strength of the connection is very close, close, acceptable). The coefficient of determination takes values from 0.5 to 1.0 (models of good quality and acceptable). In 25 regions, the modulus of the correlation coefficient is in the interval from 0.5 to 0.7 (the strength of the connection is significant), in 21 regions the correlation coefficient is less than 0.5 (the connection is weak). Only in two regions, Stavropol Territory and Ivanovo Region, the share of spending on alcoholic beverages is growing. For harmful goods, such as alcoholic beverages, this trend is negative. The correlation coefficient is less than 0.5 (the relationship is weak). In the Chechen Republic, there are virtually no expenses on alcoholic beverages.

Result and discussion
Human development index for the analyzed period 2000-2017 growing in all regions of Russia. The growth trend is very stable everywhere (the connection is very close). All models are of good quality. Table 2 presents the results of an analysis of the relationship between the share of spending on alcoholic beverages in household final consumption expenditures and the human development index, as well as the results of ranking in descending order of the expenditure level and the human development index in 2017 in the analyzed regions of Russia. In 79 out of 82 regions, a negative (inverse) relationship was found between spending on alcoholic beverages and the HDI -with an increase in the HDI, spending on alcoholic beverages decreases. In 11 subjects, the relationship is close -the modulus of the correlation coefficient is from 0.8 to 0.9; in 17 subjects, acceptable -the modulus of the correlation coefficient is from 0.7 to 0.8; in 28 subjects, the relationship is significant --the modulus of the correlation coefficient is from 0.5 to 0.7; in 23 subjects, the connection is weak -the modulus of the correlation coefficient is less than 0.5.
In the Stavropol Territory and Ivanovo Region, a positive (direct) relationship has been established between spending on alcoholic beverages and the HDI -as the HDI grows, the cost of alcoholic beverages grows. The connection strength is weak. The growth in spending on alcoholic beverages with the growth of the HDI deserves a negative assessment, which requires additional research to develop appropriate solutions in the field of public and state regulation.
The Ivanovo region has one of the highest expenses on alcoholic beverages in Russia -2.3% in 2017 (4th place in the ranking). At the same time, the human development index, on the contrary, is one of the lowest in Russia -0.827 in 2017 (76th in the ranking). In the Stavropol Territory, the situation is similar -21st in the ranking of alcohol expenditures (1. This list does not include 6 regions of the North Caucasian Federal District, where the lowest expenses on alcoholic beverages among all constituent entities of the Russian Federation -North Ossetia (79th place in the 2017 ranking), Dagestan (80th place), the Republic of Ingushetia (83rd place) , The Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (78th place), the Karachay-Cherkess Republic (81st place), the Chechen Republic (82th place). Religious rejection of alcohol consumption in these regions of Russia is the basis of both low demand from the population itself and significant government restrictions. It should be noted that these subjects have a relatively low level of HDI: North Ossetia (62nd in the 2017 ranking), Dagestan (65th), the Republic of Ingushetia (71st), the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (77th), the Karachay-Cherkess Republic (79th), the Chechen Republic (82nd). However, in all regions in the analyzed period in the dynamics of a steady decline in the share of spending on alcoholic beverages against the background of an increase in the human development index. The relationship between the share of spending on alcoholic beverages and the human development index is inverse. In the Chechen Republic, there are virtually no expenditures on the purchase of alcoholic beverages; therefore, the relationship between the HDI and the share of expenditures is weak, and the quality of the model is low.
The highest HDI in Moscow (1st place), St. Petersburg (2nd place), the Republic of Tatarstan (3rd place), Tyumen region (4th place), Belgorod region (5th place), Yakutia (6th place), Magadan region (7th place), Tomsk region (8th place), Sakhalin region (9th place). Of these regions, the highest level of spending on alcoholic beverages is in St. Petersburg 1.96% (16th place). Above the average level are also expenses in the Republic of Tatarstan 1.72% (34th place) and in Moscow 1.64% (39th place). In other regions, expenditures are below average, which deserves a positive assessment.
In general, in the Russian Federation, the share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages in household final consumption expenditures from 2000 to 2017 decreases with an increase in the HDI. The quality of the models is good. The relationship between the share of spending on alcoholic beverages and the human development index is close and inverse. The trend is positive, however, it does not take into account possible changes in the shadow sector in the market for alcoholic and alcohol-containing products, which is estimated at up to 70%. Established in 2009 The Federal Service for the Regulation of the Alcohol Market, in a short time, organized such a large-scale regulation and control on the alcohol and spiritus market, which has not yet been in modern Russia. However, it cannot be concluded that the concentration of powers in the sphere of regulating the alcoholic market in a single department led to the legalization of the market, since the consumption of alcoholic products "exempted from excise duties" sold and accounted for in legal retail was replaced by the consumption of medical, food and non-food alcohol-containing liquids of "double appointments ", the accounting of consumption of which is not kept to meet the destructive needs.

Conclusion
In Russia and in the overwhelming number of regions (79 out of 82 participating in the study), in 2000-2017, the share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages in household final consumption expenditures decreases against the background of an increase in the human development index. Also, in Russia and 79 regions, the relationship between spending and the human development index is inverse. Comparison of the regions in terms of 2017 showed that 22 out of 41 regions with the highest expenditures on alcoholic beverages have the lowest human development index and 22 other regions out of 41 with the lowest expenditures on alcoholic beverages have the highest human development index. In general, the trend is positive for the alcoholic beverages market, which is classified as harmful addictive products. In a number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, negative trends are observed. In the Stavropol Territory and the Ivanovo Region, spending on alcoholic beverages is growing and there is a direct link with the human development index. In these regions, with high alcohol spending, low human development indices compared to other subjects. The leaders in spending on alcoholic beverages are also the Rostov Region, the Jewish Autonomous Region, the Kirov Region, the Murmansk Region, Karelia, the Kostroma Region, the Kaluga Region, the Komi Republic, and the Khabarovsk Territory. In these regions, except for Komi, against the background of high spending on alcoholic beverages, a relatively low human development index. The Pskov region can also be referred to this group of regions. In St. Petersburg, with a high development index, relatively high expenditures on alcoholic beverages, in Moscow and the Republic of Tatarstan, also with a high human development index, expenditures on alcoholic beverages are average. The regions with a positive situation should also be noted. The constituent entities of the North Caucasian Federal District (North Ossetia, Dagestan, the Republic of Ingushetia, the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic, the Chechen Republic) have the lowest expenditures on alcoholic products among all constituent entities of Russia, however, relatively low indicators of the human development index. After the North Caucasian regions with low expenditures on alcoholic beverages, there are the Tambov Region, Novgorod Region, Ryazan Region, Republic of Adygea, Buryatia, Republic of Kalmykia, Republic of Altai, Magadan Region, Irkutsk Region, Ulyanovsk Region. In the Irkutsk, Ryazan, Novgorod, Tambov regions, the average rating of the human development index. In the Ulyanovsk region, the Republic of Kalmykia, the Republic of Adygea, Buryatia, the Republic of Altai, the human development index rating is below average. In the Magadan region, against the background of low costs for alcoholic beverages, there is a high human development index. In Tyumen Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, Yakutia, Tomsk Oblast, Sakhalin Oblast, there is a high human development index, and spending on alcoholic beverages is below average. The conducted empirical analysis should be used to change the approach of state authorities to the degradation of human capital from the consumption of addictive goods in problem regions.