Some aspects of the role of agricultural production for sustainable development of the state

. The author draws attention to the development of crisis phenomena in most of the developed countries of the world. Possible scenarios for resolving the growing crisis contradictions are briefly analyzed. It is noted that quite serious armed conflicts are not excluded, in which a drop in the standard of living of the population of many countries of the world is inevitable. It is noted that in this scenario, the developed agriculture will contribute to the minimum inevitable losses among the population of those countries that will be involved in the conflict. In a scenario in which armed clashes will not be a serious enough problem for developed countries, there will be a problem of a decrease in the number of the indigenous population of these countries, their replacement by a population with other cultural traditions, or, in general, a critical decrease in population density. The author analyzes the reasons for this phenomenon and comes to the conclusion that it is possible to reverse the current trend by involving the population in the development of agriculture on modern principles.


Introduction
The importance of agricultural production not only for economic development, but also for the preservation of social stability in the state has been the subject of scientific analysis of many research works. Within the framework of this article, arguments are given about the still poorly illuminated aspects of the importance of agricultural production not only for economic, but also for social development of relatively developed countries. First of all, I would like to dwell on both some general and specific problems identified in those countries that in the second half of the twentieth century determined the rules for resolving the most important problems and conflicts on a global scale. We are talking primarily about the main countries of the so-called Christian world. Of course, this term assumes certain assumptions, for example, the Muslim element is significant in Europe. What problems are typical for this group of countries? Let us give a brief analysis of them, taking into account the specifics of the problematic for the most important structural components of this system of countries. I would like to start with Russia, probably the most problematic country in this block of countries. The most significant problems hindering higher economic growth rates are traditionally called a high level of corruption, raw materials orientation of the economy, primarily hydrocarbon exports, and a high level of production monopolization. In addition, Russia, due to a complex of reasons, is in conflict relations with other countries, primarily Christian civilization, which threaten to escalate on an unpredictable scale. It should be noted a decrease in the population, the replacement of the indigenous population by migrants.
Continental Europe can be called another component of this block of countries. The problems of the economic and social development of these countries include the uneven development of different regions of Europe, which can lead to the undermining of bloc solidarity and internal conflicts, a drop in the birth rate among those groups of the population that originally lived in these territories and, as a consequence, the replacement of the declining indigenous population by migrants from disadvantaged in the economic and social plan of the countries. At the same time, an inevitable gradual change in the mentality of the population of these states with poorly predictable consequences. The absence of an understandable real plan for resolving conflict relations with Russia does not guarantee Europe against an unacceptable scenario for the parties. The third component of the countries of Christian civilization can be called the block of Anglo-Saxon states, primarily the United States. The most serious problem for the United States is the inevitable decline in the share of its economy in the global economy, which will lead to the emergence of a new reserve currency, maybe several currencies. This will make it impossible to cover the budget deficit by issuing the dollar, the standard of living in the United States will inevitably decrease, which is fraught with unpredictable social upheavals.
To maintain its dominant position at the international level, to maintain a monopoly on the only reserve currency as a means of maintaining a high level of consumption in the country, the United States will take all possible measures, including those that will be of a conflict nature, primarily in relation to Russia and China. The consequences of these conflict actions can be the most catastrophic, given the fact that each of the three countries has a colossal military potential capable of repeatedly destroying all life on the planet. In the most tragic scenario, with the full-scale use of nuclear weapons, the consequences do not imply the need to draw up an action plan to rectify the situation. Is this scenario possible? There are reasons to assert that this option is impossible, since no one is interested in mutual destruction. However, the First World War began in conditions when the main countries, participants in the war, initially did not want to arrange a world meat grinder, and its beginning is the result of mutually conditioned chains of conflict actions, while each of the parties believed that its actions were forced. Whether the balance of lifeaffirming motivations is capable of preventing the most catastrophic scenario for the development of events, people are not given to know. Fortunately, mankind did not have experience based on the facts of behavior of groups of persons with powers to unleash a nuclear conflict in critical situations. With a great deal of stretch, it is possible by analogy to analyze the behavior of individuals or groups of individuals who, in order to achieve sometimes even everyday goals, put their own lives on the line as a bluff, blackmailing the other side of the conflict. The author of this article worked for some time in the lower structures of law enforcement agencies and witnessed cases when the imitation of suicide or murder ended tragically. Apparently, under a certain set of circumstances, a tragic ending is possible on the scale of all mankind. Unfortunately, the countries with the most powerful nuclear weapons in recent years have allowed themselves to facilitate the use of nuclear weapons by introducing appropriate changes in military doctrines.
With a less tragic scenario, but suggesting the possibility of an armed clash between the countries of European civilization, it is possible to predict a total drop in the standard of living of the population and the need to master methods of survival when the state is unable to provide the usual living conditions for citizens. From the relatively recent, by historical standards, events, one can recall the experience of the survival of the population of the Soviet Union during the Second World War. The state was able to provide the necessary goods, primarily food, at the lowest level, and not the entire population. Residents of rural areas had to be on actual self-sufficiency, receiving food from their personal household plots. At the same time, all the more or less able-bodied population of rural settlements, not drafted into the armed forces, had to work in collective farms for a symbolic fee, providing food to the belligerent fellow citizens. It can be concluded that the food security of the Soviet Union in the Second World War ensured the ability of the population to provide themselves with food products at a time when the belligerent economy could not do this. This was facilitated by the fact that a significant part of the population of the USSR at that time lived in rural areas and was employed in agricultural production. Over the past years, the level of urbanization in Russia has grown significantly compared to the Soviet Union during the Second World War, and in a similar situation, Russian citizens will not be able to provide themselves with food, which will lead to massive hunger and the death of a significant portion of the population. And this is true not only for modern Russia, but also for many other countries with a high level of urbanization of the population. Moreover, the inability of the economy to provide the population with essential products may be due not only to a possible armed conflict, but also to other circumstances not related to direct human activities. A collision of planet Earth with a large meteorite is possible, which disorganizes control systems and so on. Thus, agriculture in any country should be considered not as one of the sectors of the economy, but as an industry that can ensure the survival of a significant portion of the population in an emergency situation for the state.

Materials and Methods
Within the framework of the presented research, the author used mainly the methods of comparative analysis and scientific forecast. A comparison was made of socio-economic situations in countries in those historical periods when certain social factors were present in them, the role of which is important in modern realities. The author predicts the possible dynamics of the development of these factors, for example, demographic processes, taking into account the assumed vectors of management decisions that affect the development of society. The materials for the analysis were mainly used from the historical experience of Russia, as well as from other European countries.

Results and Discussion
It can be assumed with a high degree of confidence that a significant number of politicians in the conflicting states of European civilization, admitting aggravation of relations between Russia and Europe with the United States, proceed from the postulate of the inadmissibility of an armed clash between these countries, at least during the period when each of the parties has the potential to inflict significant, unacceptable damage to the other party. At the same time, the possibility of man-made disasters on a planetary scale is obviously considered as low. Hence, agricultural production is viewed as an ordinary branch of the economy, the management of which should be conditioned by ordinary market laws without taking into account the possibility of emergencies of a prolonged nature, in which the question of the survival of the nation will arise. True, most countries take into account the peculiarities of agricultural production, its risky nature, and this is reflected in the legislation of many states. The practice of subsidizing agriculture is quite widespread. The legislation of a number of countries fixes preferences for agricultural producers. So the Civil Code of Russia in Article 538 establishes a rule according to which a manufacturer of agricultural products is liable under contracts for the supply of these products only if there is fault. It should be noted that other entities conducting business in Russia are liable on the basis of entrepreneurial risk, regardless of fault in the event of damages to the other party under the contract. The above provision of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation is reflected in judicial practice. In the Resolution of the Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Northwestern District of the Russian Federation No. A56-37599 of December 25, 2013, the manufacturer of agricultural products was released for shortage, since it was caused by bad weather conditions [1].
It should also be noted that agricultural producers are not prohibited from limiting the amount of liability of an agricultural producer in the contract, for example, to include in the contract a clause according to which lost profits cannot be collected, subject to the general rule of civil law of the Russian Federation, according to which it is not allowed to limit the amount of liability in the contract relative to that established in law. However, it should be recognized that these nuances of Russian civil legislation only reflect some of the specifics of agricultural production, its risky nature and in no way give agricultural production the status of a strategic industry. This circumstance is due to the relatively modest economic indicators of agricultural production in the total volume of the country's economy. So in 2019, with an increase in agricultural production relative to previous years, its share in the total GDP of Russia was only 5.4 percent [2] However, even if we assume that the further development of civilization will avoid major planetary cataclysms, such as large-scale armed conflicts like the Second World War or natural disasters causing a sharp change in the human environment, the gradual decline of the indigenous population of Russia and the rest of Europe can lead to the extinction of Christian civilization. Thus, back in 2005, the Government of the Russian Federation came to the conclusion that if the situation with the decline in the population level is not corrected, then in a few years this problem will become a direct threat to the statehood of Russia [3]. The consequences of this phenomenon are poorly predictable, but an extremely negative option for the development of world civilization as a whole cannot be ruled out. What are the reasons for the decline in the population level in developed countries with an increasing average life expectancy in these countries? The answer is obvious: it is a decline in the birth rate.
Many countries have programs to increase the birth rate. So, for example, in Russia a program of the so-called "maternity capital" has been introduced, when for the birth of a second and subsequent children, parents have the right to receive a fairly substantial amount of money, which after three years after the birth of a second child (and in some cases even earlier) can be sent for the social needs of the family specified in the law. This is the improvement of housing conditions, the education of children, or the retirement benefits of the mother. Subsequently, payments began to be made for the first child. There are other benefits related to maternity and childhood protection. The implemented measures of social support for families with children, to a certain extent, had a positive impact on solving the problem of a decrease in the population of Russia, but the problem has not been fundamentally solved. So it was noted that since 2006, after the introduction of the "maternity capital" program, the birth rate in Russia began to grow, but in 2018 the birth rate fell, which allows us to conclude that these social protection measures are insufficient to radically improve the demographic situation [4]. Moreover, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the rate of population decline in the Russian Federation in 2020 accelerated due to excess mortality. Thus, we can conclude that raising the standard of living, strengthening social guarantees for families with children are not able to raise the birth rate in developed countries. Meanwhile, even in the first half of the twentieth century in Russia and other European countries, the number of children in families was much higher on average than at present, the population of the countries was increasing, although the standard of living at that time was much lower than it is now. The reasons for this phenomenon are described in the scientific literature, and if we briefly summarize the main reasons for this phenomenon, they boil down to the fact that children in modern society impede the implementation of the life plans of citizens, which are associated with the consumption of material goods. It is known that in countries with a favorable economic situation, the birth rate is still low and this is obviously due to the prevailing culture of consumption. So it was noted that as "the whole world began to die out from old Europe, so Russia began to die out naturally from the center of its European part" [5]. The standard of living in Moscow is significantly higher than in the rest of Russia, but the birth rate is lower. So in the capital of Russia, there are currently 11.4 newborns per 1000 inhabitants, and in the rest of Russia 13.4 [6]. Thus, the rejection of the values associated with the existing structure of consumption could correct the situation with the decline in the population of European countries and Russia. However, this scenario assumes the emergence of any political forces in countries that are able to impose on citizens a rejection of the usual and comfortable values of the consumer society and suppress the natural resistance of the population, its creative part, to such events. In fact, we are talking about the need for the emergence of dictatorial regimes with unpredictable consequences. Another option presupposes not a rejection of the values of the consumer society, but a change in the culture of consumption, a change in priorities in consumption and such changes in the structure of the economy that could minimize the negative consequences of having a large number of children in the family for consumption.
It should be remembered that the proportion of the population in the first half of the twentieth century in Europe and Russia living in rural areas was much higher than at present. At the same time, in those families that live in rural areas, the role of children as parents' helpers is significantly different from the role of children living in urban families. If in urban family's children in most cases are only consumers of parents' resources, requiring a lot of material resources and time to organize food and leisure, in rural areas, children provide significant assistance in running a subsidiary farm, less time is spent on organizing leisure time. If you look at the birth rate statistics currently in Russia, the best indicators are in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Altai Territory, Tuva, [7] i.e. in those regions in which a significant part of the population is involved in agricultural production, at least not at the level of commercial production. Of course, other reasons for the higher birth rate in these regions can be identified, for example, the religious factor, traditions, and so on, but involvement in food production, at least at the level of subsidiary farming, plays a certain role. In the late Soviet Union, a significant number of collective and state farms were not profitable, but they played a significant social role in contributing to the improvement of the democratic situation, filling the labor shortage in cities with rural youth, where the birth rate was on average higher than in cities. Thus, agriculture, like no other branch of the economy, not only produces the necessary products and goods, but with its priority development can reduce the level of urbanization of the population and improve the demographic situation in any developed country. It has already been said above that low fertility in developed countries is due to the prevailing culture of consumption, in which the presence of children prevents an increase in the level of consumption.
The state has information and propaganda resources for the introduction of other consumer values, in which the presence of children will not reduce the level of a new type of consumption. So, for example, the production of organic food products on personal plots, in personal subsidiary farms, which will be much better in quality than those produced on an industrial scale, can be promoted, while the production of environmentally friendly products will be one of the necessary elements of a healthy lifestyle. Practice shows that there are quite a few adherents of a healthy lifestyle in developed countries, and with a more active propaganda policy of the state, their number will increase significantly. It is possible to promote agritourism, local history, develop sports hunting, all other types of leisure that are more accessible in rural areas. This will allow people to switch their needs from purchasing luxury goods, expensive tours to distant countries, buying prestigious, expensive, but not quite necessary things to a more pragmatic and efficient consumption structure. It should be noted that the development of information technology, which was given a certain impetus by the coronavirus epidemic, allows people to live in rural areas and people who are not directly employed in agriculture, but work remotely in other sectors of the economy. It must be recognized that the recommended measures will lead to a drop in labor productivity in agriculture, since a deep division of labor is possible with largescale production, including agricultural. It should also be noted that there is a possible outflow of labor from other sectors of the economy, which are characteristic of urbanized countries. However, it should be borne in mind that the current level of development of artificial intelligence has raised the issue of ousting people from the production and service sectors, and the threat of large-scale unemployment. Perhaps a significant number of citizens will be forced to subsist on unemployment benefits. Already today, one of the factors holding back the introduction of artificial intelligence and, consequently, holding back scientific and technological progress in a number of countries is the problem of significant unemployment and, as a result, the growth of social tension. So, according to some forecasts of specialists, by 2030, about 400 million people in the world will lose their jobs (about 14 percent of the workforce), since these jobs will be performed by artificial intelligence [8]. At the same time, with the help of artificial intelligence, the qualities of the employee, his suitability for the work performed will be assessed [9].
Depersonalization of the subject who makes decisions on concluding an employment contract during a period of a sharp increase in unemployment will negatively affect the social well-being of many citizens. Changed employment practices that have evolved over decades will be changed. For example, in Russia, personal connections and other subjective aspects are of great importance for employment. The destruction of habitual stereotypes of behavior will cause the growth of neuroses and other nervous disorders. Living in rural areas, the presence of personal subsidiary plots, despite their low economic efficiency, but giving a certain stable level of prosperity, will make it possible to neutralize the negative social consequences. In addition, a decrease in the level of urbanization will make it possible to more actively use renewable energy resources, for example, to generate energy from air masses, small rivers, since such generation is economically effective when the energy consumer is relatively close to the generating device. There will be an opportunity for a more successful implementation of the elements of the so-called green economy, that is, a path of economic development that consumes less natural resources, primarily nonrenewable ones. It should be noted that, according to experts, the implementation of policies related to the economical consumption of water, energy resources, and so on can provide an opportunity for the creation of up to 40 million jobs worldwide [10].
The depletion of non-renewable natural resources, climate change, the growth of social inequality as a result of the peculiarities of the development of the existing type of economy, put on the agenda a significant change in the foundations of social and economic relations. It is not for nothing that the United Nations conference dedicated to the problems of sustainable development of the planet, which was held in 2012, argued that the transition to the so-called "green economy" should be considered as the most important tool for fighting poverty and poverty. Researchers note that this is an important shift in public consciousness towards such an approach in planning the development of human civilization, in which the protection of nature and the environment will play an essential role [11].
It is obvious that the UN as an international organization cannot but be under the certain influence of the leading countries of the world, first of all the USA and the countries of Western Europe. It is no secret that the concept of the "golden billion" was and still is quite popular in Western countries, according to which the consumption of basic natural resources, maintaining a high level of consumption, maintaining a high level of environmental well-being, should have been carried out primarily in the most economically developed countries, and the countries that did not fall into the "golden billion" were supposed to exist in conditions of permanent poverty and other disadvantage. Practice shows that any, the most prosperous country, cannot isolate itself from the problems and crises that are inevitable in disadvantaged countries.
The operation of terrorist organizations in developed countries, whose members are recruited primarily from poor, belligerent countries, or countries where religious factors based on intolerance of dissent dominate in public relations, is an example of the impossibility of isolating individual countries in the modern world. Other examples could be problems with refugee flows to European countries. Climate change shows that the environmental problems of some territories will have a global impact on all of humanity.
All these examples cast doubt on the possibility of realizing the concept of a prosperous existence of the "golden billion" and predetermine the need for coordinated global actions to develop measures to prevent the implementation of destructive trends on a global scale. The 2012 UN conference on the development of the "green economy" can be considered such an example. It can be noted that with a fairly high level of international tension in the world, it is cooperation in the field of environmental protection that is the most successful and in a certain way helps to normalize relations between countries. It should be noted that in recent years in many scientific publications the topic of transition to new trends in the economy associated with "green growth", "green finance", "green technologies" has become quite popular. [12] Above, the author substantiated the need for the state to concentrate various resources, including organizational, financial and others, to popularize ideas related to changing the culture of consumption. However, it should be noted that any global trends associated with significant financial flows suggest the possibility of abuse and corruption. If the implementation of the concept of "green economy" is carried out within the framework of maintaining a high level of urbanization, i.e. is only in the replacement of one type of energy for another, for example, hydrocarbon for nuclear), in the re-equipment of enterprises according to new standards, and so on, then the possibilities of abuse here will be quite significant. With a development vector in which the level of urbanization decreases, and, consequently, centrally allocated resources are allocated in a metered manner for the development of relatively small agricultural projects, then the ability to control the spending of allocated funds will be higher. Consequently, the economic efficiency will be higher.

Conclusion
In accordance with the work done, certain conclusions can be justified. 1. Developed agriculture will help to minimize the loss of the population of a given country if it is subjected to an armed conflict or major natural disasters. 2. The involvement of citizens of any country in agriculture can help change the consumer interests of these citizens and can contribute to an increase in the population. 3. The state should promote a healthy lifestyle, which would include the production of organic food, changes in consumption priorities. 4. Reorientation of citizens to agriculture will lead to an outflow of labor from other sectors of the economy, which can be offset by the development of robotics and artificial intelligence. 5. The development of agriculture in any country will be in the global trend of development of the "green economy" and will contribute to the development of international relations of this country.