Quantitative analysis of the driving factors of carbon emissions and the evolution of carbon neutrality

. Based on the selection of quantitative indicators and divisions, this paper conducts an overall quantitative analysis. And some hard-to-measure energy structure and industrial structure carbon emission driving factors, combined with the laws of carbon emission and absorption are analyzed. According to the definition and measurement standards of low-carbon economic development, we select 18 energy structure indicators and 47 industrial structure indicators for quantitative analysis. The driving factors of the energy structure are mainly carbon emission intensity and energy conversion efficiency. The driving factors of industrial structure are mainly divided into industrial proportion and economic scale. The rapid growth of GDP level is asynchronous with the total amount of carbon emissions, and gradually shows a state of "relative decoupling"

Of course, our country's position is also very clear.my country has also written the development goal of "promoting green development and promoting the harmonious coexistence of man and nature" into the 14th Five-Year Plan for my country's national economic and social development and the outline of the 2035 long-term goals.It is enough to see the importance of "carbon neutral" promotion.

Data analysis method
The data in this paper comes from the carbon emission statistics from 2000 to 2018 provided in the China Carbon Accounting Database (CEADs).The data includes energy structure parameters such as raw coal, clean coal, and other washed coal.The comprehensive statistics in this paper are divided into coal, oil and natural gas for data analysis.According to the carbon emission calculation guidelines provided by IPCC, combined with my country's characteristics, the calculation formula is: coal Petro natural gas carbon emission factor 0.75 0.57 0.5 Carbon emission intensity is the ratio of carbon emission per unit of GDP.The China Carbon Accounting Database (CEADs) contains energy consumption data for various industries.Therefore, the carbon emission of each industry is the product of the energy consumption of each industry and the number of carbon emission intensity.

Descriptive statistics
Since the 21st century, our country has developed rapidly.
The following is an analysis of our country's energy structure and economic development trends by filtering some data through the data panel.However, it can be seen from the analysis that GDP growth has accelerated, while the growth rate of total carbon emissions has slowed down, and there is a negative growth.This shows a state of "relative decoupling" between GDP and carbon emissions. [2]

Industry proportion and carbon emission structure analysis
The data of each industry's share of the total economic output are as follows: After the third industry classification, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and water conservancy are classified as primary industries.Industry and construction are the secondary industries.The transportation industry and warehousing industry belong to the tertiary industry.From 2000 to 2018, the proportion of the national primary industry decreased by 9.53%; the secondary industry decreased by 3.89%; the tertiary industry increased by 13.42%.The three industries reflect the rising trend of the tertiary industry and the downward trend of the primary and secondary industries.The trend is shown above.The industry with the highest carbon emissions is the secondary industry, with an annual consumption of 8,000 million tons after 2013.In recent years, the proportion of the secondary industry has continued to rise, the proportion of the primary industry has declined, and the secondary industry has shown a downward trend from 2010 to 2016.The average annual decrease of the primary industry was 1.06%; the average annual decrease of the secondary industry was 0.43%; the average annual increase of the tertiary industry was 1.49%.

Fig. 4 Proportion of carbon consumption by industry
Among the three different industries, the secondary industry has the largest proportion of carbon consumption, accounting for about 89% of the total carbon consumption.Among them, in the secondary industry, industrial production is the main factor of carbon emissions.Among them, industry accounts for the largest proportion all year round, and the proportion is stable at close to 90%.The transportation industry, warehousing industry, and post and telecommunications service industry can be analyzed from the figure, and the proportion of 2000-2018 has increased slightly, and the proportion is close to 90%.From 2000 to 2013, industrial carbon consumption continued to grow steadily, and in 2013, carbon consumption reached 80 million tons.

Analysis of energy types
Filter the energy structure information from the data panel, and analyze the statistical results as follows:

Analysis of the relationship between carbon emission intensity, energy conversion rate and carbon emission
According to the Statistical Yearbook of Energy, the relationship between energy conversion rate, carbon intensity and total carbon emissions is shown below.

Fig.6. Relationship between energy conversion rate, carbon emission intensity and total carbon emission
Energy conversion efficiency is the ratio of final energy consumption to total energy consumption.Improving energy conversion efficiency can save energy.Carbon emission intensity is the ratio of carbon emission per unit of GDP.Carbon emission intensity is decreasing year by year.In 2008, the carbon emission intensity decreased by 13%, and the annual average carbon emission intensity decreased by 5.82%.

Related analysis
We use the Spearman correlation coefficient to analyze the correlation of each industry, GDP, energy conversion rate, carbon emission intensity and carbon consumption to verify their correlation.Define A and B as two sets of different data, then the spearman correlation coefficient can be expressed as:  According to the calculation results, carbon emission intensity, energy conversion rate, primary industry, tertiary industry, GDP, coal, oil and natural gas are significant at 95% confidence level.

Summarize
China's energy structure is mainly coal energy, but the proportion of natural gas carbon emissions is on the rise.The driving factors of the energy structure are mainly carbon emission intensity factors and energy conversion efficiency factors.China's carbon emission intensity has decreased year by year, and the conversion efficiency has increased year by year, which is strongly related to carbon emissions.China's industrial structure is mainly dominated by the secondary industry and the tertiary industry.The driving factors of industrial structure are mainly divided into industrial proportion factors and economic scale factors.China's tertiary industry has begun to develop rapidly, which is strongly related to carbon emissions.The rapid growth of GDP level is asynchronous with the total amount of carbon emissions, and gradually shows a state of "relative decoupling".

Global advice:
 Resource-based industries need to vigorously innovate and optimize the industrial structure.In essence, energy conservation and emission reduction requires continuous innovation in energy development and use technology to reduce carbon emissions.Strengthen the effectiveness of technology to ensure the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure and scientific and rational development.It is also necessary to fully adjust the internal structure of the energy.Make full use of the innovation of engineering technology, realize low-carbon economic development, reduce environmental pollution, and fully solve the adverse impact of social and economic development on the environment.[3]  Optimize energy structure and improve energy efficiency.At the current stage, the main supporting energy for the development of my country's industry and economy is coal, oil, and natural gas-based fossil fuel energy.Among them, most industries in resource-based provinces and developing provinces and cities mainly rely on natural resources such as coal to generate GDP effects.In the process of mining, refining, purification, and use, more greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, will be produced, which will increase carbon emissions and be detrimental to the carbon cycle.Therefore, my country's energy consumption structure should be transformed from a structure dominated by fossil fuels to a structure dominated by clean energy and renewable energy.Change the relatively single energy structure, develop and utilize new energy and alternative energy, and realize the diversification of the energy structure.

Fig. 5 .
Fig. 5. Analysis of carbon emissions of various energy sources Among them, coal carbon emissions account for about 80%.The proportion increased slowly from 2000 to 2012 and showed a downward trend from 2012 to 2018.Carbon emissions from petroleum-based energy showed a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2018.Carbon emissions from natural gas energy are on the rise.
grade difference between i i A B , and the grade of number is the position after ranking in ascending order.The calculation results are as follows:

Table 1 .
Carbon emission coefficients of various energy sources is the carbon emission, E N is the N th energy consumption, and N  is the N th energy emission coefficient.The unit is million tons.

Table 2 .
Panel data statistics

Table 3 .
Relationship between GDP and carbon emissions From 2001 to 2008, the annual growth rate of national GDP reached 13.46%.The national GDP growth from 2001 to 2018 can be roughly divided into two stages: the first stage is the rapid growth stage from 2001 to 2011; the latter stage is the slow growth stage from 2012 to 2018.From 2001 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of carbon emissions was 6.83%.It has roughly gone through four stages.The first stage is 2001-2011, which is the stage of rapid growth.The second stage is 2011-2014, which is a slow growth stage.The third stage is 2015-2016, which is a negative growth stage.The last stage is the slow growth stage in 2017-2018.Combining GDP growth rate and carbon emission growth rate, changes in carbon emission intensity can be divided into the following two stages.The first phase was a slow decline in 2001-2003.The second stage is the rapid decline stage from 2004 to 2018, with an average annual decline of 6.65%.
Fig. 2. Changes in carbon emissions, GDP, and carbon emission intensityIn recent years, my country's economy has developed rapidly.Among them, GDP and carbon emission values show high correlation characteristics.The correlation coefficient between the total GDP and the total carbon emission is 2 R =0.985, and the fluctuation is obviously asynchronous.

Table 4 .
The proportion of each industry Fig. 3. Analysis of Industry and Carbon Emissions

Table 5 .
Analysis of the proportion of various energy sources

Table 6 .
Spearman correlation coefficient results