Problems and prospects for the development of the Northern Sea route: its port facilities’ current state from a Western sector perspective

. In the twenty-first century, the Arctic is the latest contested region of global significance. The interests of foreign states encompass not only oil and gas production in the Arctic, but also the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The NSR has the status of a major transport artery in the Arctic sector of Russia and is seen as a transcontinental Euro-Asian maritime transport corridor. The study examines the importance of ports in the Arctic basin in the Northern Sea Route system. The volume of traffic along the NSR from 2011 to 2020 is analyzed. The characteristic of the key NSR ports in the aspect of cargo transshipment and access to the World Ocean is given. Based on the classification and analysis of statistical data, the authors examine the characteristics and role of Western Russian ports in the Arctic basin, as well as their current state. The conclusion is substantiated that the development of NSR is a priority direction of the Russian economy in the aspect of increasing the volume of export and cargo turnover of Russian ports in times.


Introduction
The Northern Sea Route -a future alternative to the Suez Canal. Figenschau N., Lu J. Seasonal note in research paper that «the sea route is located between 71•580 N 26•34 E and 64•110 N 169•050 W and is 5000-5400 km long, stretching from the east coast of Novaya Zemlya in the west to Cape Dezhnev in the east. The NSR can be divided into three routes: the Coastal Route, the Mid Route, and the Transit Route. The sea route is considered the shortest available connection between Northeast Asia and Northern Europe, about 2700 nautical miles shorter than the Suez Canal route. The sea route crosses five Arctic seas: The Barents Sea, the Kara Sea, the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Chukchi Sea» [1].
The NSR route for transporting cargo from the Far East to Europe is shown in blue with over 14,000 kilometres, while the alternative route using the Suez Canal is shown in red with over 23,000 kilometres. International logistics is dependent on freight transport by water. Any disruption or delay in supply chains causes spikes in global oil and liquefied natural gas prices. That is why it is important to have an alternative option -NSR, which has become more suitable for global warming. NSR is key to the successful development of the entire Far East, which will help create strong financial flows through the ports of the Arctic and the Far East.

Relevance
The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that the NSR is the cheapest and safest transport corridor for container freight transportation between the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation. Only with developed logistics the Arctic resources can be developed on a large scale to ensure the socio-economic development of the region. The President of Russia V.V. Putin, in his speech to the Russian Parliament, noted that the strengthening of scientific, transport, navigation and military infrastructure is of particular importance for the reliable protection of Russia's interests in the Arctic. The mission aims to turn the NSR into a global and competitive system, enabling large volumes of freight traffic to the Far Eastern regions year-round. Due to the country's growing production volume and, with it, the increased need for freight transport, mainly for the extraction of natural resources, its use has been increasing in recent years. The extractive industries constitute the economic backbone of the bulk of the Russian Arctic and the territory of the Russian Federation. The development of hydrocarbons on land and on the continental shelf is at the heart of the Arctic's economic development strategy. At present, the Arctic region of the Russian Federation has a unique mineral resource base of solid minerals, and its deposits form major provinces, mining districts and mineral resource centres. According to the Federal Agency for Subsoil Use of the Russian Federation, the main types of minerals, their reserves and production in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation are shown in Table  1. To summarise, the role of this transport hub, which has global interests, is that this route is a crucial part of the infrastructure of the Far North economic complex and connects the western part of the country to the Russian Far East. It connects Siberia's major river arteries into a single transport network. For certain areas of the Arctic, including the settlements of the Taimyr Autonomous Region, shipping by sea is the only way to meet the needs of the population. Only the NSR will be able to help Russia extract resources from natural reservoirs in the north, in Siberia and the Far East. It is predicted that the reserves of these storehouses can replenish the raw material base or even become the basis of Russia's resource potential in the 21st century.

Literature review
NSR is one of the most debated and controversial topics in the 21st century, as evidenced by the growing number of publications on the subject. Both Russian and foreign authors' studies are reviewed in this paper. A significant part of the research is devoted to the history of the NSR, including the discovery and development of the sea route as well as the icebreaking industry.
Historical basis is emphasised by Gavrilova I., Rayanova E., Sokolova A., reviewing the history of icebreaker fleet in the article: «the history of the development of the Arctic icebreaking fleet in Russia dates back to March 4, 1899. Despite the meter layer of ice, the world's first Arctic icebreaker the Ermak approached the Kronstadt port. This day has become one of the most significant in the history of Russian shipbuilding» [2]. Davydovska H., Petruchenko O., Yanin V. cover the history of the world's first icebreaker, the Ermak, and its expedition, which «showed that the idea of Vice Admiral Stepan Osypovych Makarov about the icebreaker fleet was viable and required further development. It is shown that the results of the first Arctic expeditions made by "Yermak" allowed to significantly develop knowledge in various scientific fields of Arctic and Earth research, namely, topography, astronomy, meteorology, hydrology, geology, magnetism, zoology, and botany» [3]. In works of Zverev D.L., Fadeev Y.P., Pakhomov A.N., Galitskikh V.Y., Polunichev V.I,Veshnyakov K.B., Kabin S.V., Turusov A.Y. the experience of developing nuclear power and reactor plants for the icebreaker fleet is reflected [9][10]. Regulatory and legal framework as well as strategies of further development of the sea route are covered in their works by such authors as Fedorov V. P. [5]. The interest of Russia in development of sea transport communication is stipulated by huge potential of sea way and progress of development for today, about what write Lee S. W., Jo J., Kim S. [4].
The growth of NSR annual traffic is predicted to increase to 80 million tons by 2024, which raises the problem of high traffic volume. Studies of this issue come to the conclusion that it is necessary to expand the nuclear icebreaker fleet [10].
In our opinion, the literature does not sufficiently reflect the issue of the current state as well as modernization of port infrastructure according to the NSR Infrastructure Development Plan for the period until 2035. The state's activities in seaport issues should be focused not only on developing export needs, but also on material and economic support as well as creating a developed infrastructure for the ports themselves.

Problem statement
Analysis of scientific works in the subject under consideration allows highlighting a number of problems: the Suez Canal needs an alternative; underdeveloped port infrastructure hampers the development of the NSR. The priority in port development is export rather than transit; practically all cargo traffic through the NSR is carried out at the expense of internal traffic through Russia; impossibility to provide year-round icebreaking; in 2022 only 4 Russian nuclear icebreakers operate in the NSR water area.

Aim, objective and hypothesis
The aim of the study is to examine the current state of the NSR port industry, taking the western sector as an example, its problems and prospects for development. For the purposes of the present study the following objectives are requested: -to analyse NSR cargo traffic, to identify problems and prospects of NSR development; -to review the cargo flow and the current state of the port industry in the western sector -to reveal features of the main port of the Arctic basin -the port of Murmansk; -to carry out a problem analysis of the NSR system; -to define the prospects of development of the western port infrastructure in the NSR system.
The hypothesis of the study lies in the fact that the cargo turnover of the Arctic basin ports directly depends on the active development and modernization of NSR. The development of the NSR sea route and coastal infrastructure will ensure sustainable socioeconomic development of Russia.

Methods
The methodological basis of the study is based on the general scientific principle of the system approach, which allowed the authors to consider the NSR system holistically, to identify features and problems of the Arctic basin ports' development. With the help of statistical data the analysis of the dynamics of the indicators of freight traffic on the NSR water area was made.
Empirical-theoretical research methods, such as analysis and comparison, were used for a more detailed study of the work objectives. This made it possible to relate the problems of

Results and discussion
In the Soviet Union, the development of the NSR was of paramount importance, helped by the Great Patriotic War, as at that time the use of the NSR was virtually the only way to transport cargo. In addition, both now and during the Soviet period, the NSR was used to supply the Arctic population with consumer packaged goods (CPG) and export mined minerals. In 1987, NSR use peaked in terms of cargo volume (over 6.5 million tonnes) and the number of ships passing through the NSR (over 300 vessels). But the unstable economic and political situation led NSR to a decline. It is only since 1996 that the number of NSR shipments started to grow regularly and the highest growth in traffic has been observed since 2011. Thus, according to the statistics provided by ROSATOM's press service, it will amount to 34.85 million tonnes in 2021, which is 5.7% higher than in 2020 (32.97 million tonnes).
According to Lee S.-W., Jo J., Kim S. "the Suez Canal blockage in 2021 has highlighted the issue of supply chain vulnerability and the need for alternative maritime routes [1]. Russian officials mentioned that this event showed the potential of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a Suez Canal Route (SCR) alternative [2,3]. The Russian government has been trying to develop the NSR. In 2018, President Putin targeted the NSR annual traffic of 80 million tons by 2024 and, in March 2020, signed the "Basic Principles of Russian Federation State Policy in the Arctic to 2035", which indicated developing the Northern Sea Route as a globally competitive national transport corridor" [4]. However, it should be noted that, by 2022, almost the entire volume of freight traffic along the NSR had been ensured by domestic traffic between Russian ports. It follows that foreign logistics companies are not interested in the NSR as a competitor of the Suez or Panama Canal. Experts say that by 2024 the claimed volume of 80 million tons of cargo traffic through the NSR will be difficult to achieve, as this volume depends mainly on the potential volume of transportation of minerals produced in the Russian Arctic.
Consider the current state of its port facilities in the western sector. There are 12 sea ports under the control of the Western Arctic Sea Ports Administration: Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Kandalaksha, Sabetta, Varandey, Vitino, Dickson, Dudinka, Mezen, Naryan-Mar, Onega and Khatanga.  0  1901  7510  6600  8000  8200  7011  7173  4900  4600  Arkhangelsk  3124  4680  3667  3800  2600  2398  2770  2687  3300  3200  Kandalaksha  1020  963  863  -800  1624  2002  2500  900  770  Dudinka  0  2876  1093  1200  1200  -1299  1460  2300  1600  Sabetta  ---538  2800  7987  17445 27678 27800 27900 One of NSR's most important ports is Murmansk, which is the ice-free port of the Arctic North of the Russian Federation and, as such, has year-round navigation. Of the total cargo turnover in 2020, most (88%) was import cargo, which increased by 8% compared to 2019, while the rest came from exports and cabotage, which decreased by 9.6%, and 9.1%. The port's cargo turnover continued to decline in 2021. The main reason for the decrease is the decrease in bulk cargo, including coal and coke, mineral fertilizers and loaded containers. But there was an increase in transhipment of ore, other bulk, general and other cargo.
In January 2021 liquid cargo transshipments decreased to 2.8 million tonnes (8.8%). The reason for the decrease in oil and oil product transhipment is the deteriorating market situation related to potential export cargoes towards Murmansk, as well as the decreasing level of oil product production. A problem has arisen related to a decrease in oil production and shipment to Volga LC and Nord RPC due to a drop in buyer demand for energy products amid the global crisis of the coronavirus pandemic, which led to a reduction in oil shipments from the Varandey terminal in the direction of Murmansk.
With the commissioning of the Vostochny Kildin Vostochny TRTC following earlier test trials, there has been an increase in the volume of liquefied natural gas transhipment at the port of Murmansk. In January 2021, 133,300 tonnes of LNG were transshipped from two LNG tankers to the Yenisei River LNG carrier for export.
Reconstruction of the Murmansk port started in 2020 -the reconstruction of Berth No. 2 at the seaport of Murmansk is being carried out to create additional capacities for receiving, storing and transshipment of coal, which will make it possible to redistribute the full volume of cargo handled at Berth No. 4 to Pier 2, and also to build an automated radio engineering station "Overview" to provide radar control of ship traffic in the southern part of the Kola Bay, including at the berths of the seaport of Murmansk to improve navigational safety in the area of the Kola Bay VTS Prospects of NSR development are defined by a number of documents, the main of them are Transport strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030; the State program of the Russian Federation "Social and economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation"; the Federal project "Northern Sea Route" implemented until 2024; NSR infrastructure development plan until 2035. Fedorov V. P. notes that pursuant to the Federal Law of 27. 12.2018 No. 525-FZ "state corporation Rosatom in late 2018 adopted the functions of the single infrastructure operator of the Northern Sea route". [5].
Guzov I. states "to make NSR the effective in the near future, it is necessary to focus on the development of the Arctic icebreaker fleet, satellite communications, emergency rescue facilities, port fleet and digital technologies". [6]. The attention of the state is focused on ensuring the safety of the Arctic seas and the coastal shelf in the environmental sphere. As part of this, annual comprehensive exercises are conducted by the Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations to deal with the possible consequences of environmental disasters and oil spills.
According to Yun J in an article entitled "Russia's arctic policy: Focusing on the construction of the arctic route and its challenges", "Russia is now investing funds in a comprehensive approach to the collection of information on waterways, hydro-meteorology and maps and the strengthening of safety measures for the prevention of oil spills. In light of this, Russia has proceeded with long-term use and development of the Northern Sea Route despite the constraints of the Arctic environment and conditions. It is also calling for government cooperation with business entities in the development of a nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet. In particular, Russia has played the most active role in Arctic development such as resource development and military base construction with a focus on icebreakers" [7].
The NSR as a transcontinental Euro-Asian maritime transport corridor is a priority for the Russian Federation. But the development of the NSR is fraught with a number of difficulties, and the future of this transport corridor depends on overcoming them. At present, in our opinion, the main problems of NSR development are: high cost of construction and maintenance of icebreaking transport; stable navigation 5 months a year; shortage of qualified personnel.
The key perspective of NSR is the renewal and development of the icebreaker fleet. According to Pavlenko V.I., Glukharev E.K., Kutsenko S.Y., "the Northern Sea Route and nuclear icebreaking fleet are the core elements of the Russian Arctic transport system. The transport system of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation consists of the different types of transport and transport network. It includes railway, pipeline, road and airline systems which pass through the polar circle to the North. There are over 100 ports and transshipping points on islands and coasts of the Arctic Ocean" [8].
"Atomflot announced a tender in 2019 for the construction of two more Arktika-type nuclear-powered icebreakers, which will cost 100 billion rubles. It is specified that the funds will be used for the construction from the federal budget and non-budgetary sources. The third and fourth icebreakers must be built no later than December 20, 2024 and December 20, 2026, respectively. Table 3. Comparative characteristics of nuclear icebreakers of the Russian Federation.

Specifications
Project 1052 "Yamal", "50 years of Victory" Project 10580 "Taimyr", "Vaigach" Project 22220 "Arctic", "Siberia", "Ural" In 2020, there were 45 vessels of various classes in Russia's active icebreaking fleet, including: 41 diesel-electric-powered icebreakers and four nuclear-powered icebreakers. Zverev D. L. et. al. note in their papers that «the service life of most of them (icebreakers) is close to exhaustion. For this reason, a decision has been made to build three universal nuclear icebreakers. They are intended not only to expand the fl eet but also to increase its effi cacy owing to universality» [9]. The study "Reactor Units for Nuclear-Powered Icebreakers: Experience and State of the Art" notes that "at present, there is a need to expand the fleet of nuclear icebreakers due to the rapid growth of cargo traffic. The freight growth is primarily due to the accelerated development of hydrocarbon production, processing and shipping as raw materials exported from seaports along the Northern Sea Route. The following nuclear-powered icebreakers are planned to be used for icebreaking pilotage of cargo ships: -2020 -operating Yamal, 50 Let Pobedy, Taimyr, and Vaigach; -2024 -operating Yamal, 50 Let Pobedy, Taimyr, Vaigach, and the new generalpurpose icebreakers Arktika, Sibir, Ural, and Yakutiya; -2030 -operating 50 Let Pobedy and new Arktika, Sibir, Yral, Yakutiya, LK60-5, and Lider-1» [10].
As the authors of the research paper «Economic and environmental aspects of the development possibilities for the northern sea route» note: «sea transport is an important part of the international transport system. Its development is especially important for the Arctic, which is an important energy region with easy access to the sea for the transportation of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other resources. This investment area is a priority for Russia and a number of other countries, including China, since it promotes interests in energy and shipping field. Tankers with icebreaking capabilities delivering crude oil and natural gas from the Far East to Western markets account for about 45% of shipping on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The rest of the transportation is carried out within the framework of the large Russian project "Yamal LNG" by ice-class tankers from the Sabetta port to Europe. However, the volume of sea traffic in the Arctic Ocean waters remains insignificant» [11].
By 2022, year-round navigation is implemented only in the Western sector of the NSR through the Kara Sea. The authors of the scientific article "Analysis of the current state of the Northern Sea Route and the potential development of the icebreaker fleet" believe that "an important requirement for maintaining the growth in cargo traffic is to ensure yearround icebreaker assistance to cargo ships along the Northern Sea Route" [12]. The transition to year-round navigation on the NSR is planned for 2022-2023.
Another problem in the development of the NSR is the shortage of qualified personnel. In the Strategy of development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and ensuring national security to 2035, the President set a goal of reaching the figure of 200,000 jobs at new enterprises by 2035. From 2020 to 2035, employers in the Arctic region will need 182,000 new jobs, 140,000 of which will come from new investment projects. By 2020, 1.4 million of the 2.5 million inhabitants of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation are employed in the economy and 208,000 (15%) work on a rotational basis. At the same time, the situation on the labour market differs from region to region, taking into account the sectoral nature of the economy.

Conclusions
Thus, the following conclusions can be drawn: 1. Extremely harsh climatic conditions of the NSR and the physical-geographical location of the route for a long time caused difficulties of mastering by seafarers and scientists. Up to now NSR has not had year-round navigation due to freezing of Arctic waterways. 2. The crisis of the 1990s, the decline in economic activity and political instability led to the decline of the NSR. The biggest increase in freight traffic has been since 2011.
3. In 2021, the cargo turnover of Arctic Basin ports decreased by 6.6% compared to 2020. But stable growth of cargo turnover is observed in the port of Sabetta. This is due to the construction of the LNG and SGC plants, as well as the shipment of oil from the Novoportovskoye field throughout the year. 4. At present, NSR development prospects are regulated in a number of documents, the main among which is the Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030. 5. NSR development is interlinked with ensuring military security in the Arctic associated with unresolved issues of water border division. 6. There are a number of problems in NSR development, namely: high cost of icebreaker construction and maintenance; sustained navigation 5 months a year; lack of qualified personnel. Up to 2035 the NSR development will be aimed at creating conditions for navigational and hydrographic support of navigation and improvement of port infrastructure, located in the NSR water area.