Risk analysis in the precast concrete industry supply chain

. Supply chain management (SCM) is a concept and strategic step that is currently widely used by small and medium industries to increase their productivity. Risk analysis in the supply chain is an important issue, because often companies are not aware of the risks until the risks emerge and become a problem for the company. The research results show that supply chain risk management in the precast concrete industry can be carried out based on the level of risk, namely by accepting risk, mitigating risk, sharing risk, and avoiding risk. Risk management at a critical level is included in risk avoidance, where risks cannot be avoided so extraordinary handling must be carried out, immediately and as quickly as possible in order to minimize the impact of greater risks. The risk categories that emerge are included in the risk management group of accepting risk, mitigating risk, and sharing risk where risk management is still considered easier for companies to handle.


Backgrounds
It is known that progress in the development of the business world in Indonesia is increasing every year, including business developments in the construction sector.As construction projects increase, the need for materials increases.One of the construction materials that is experiencing an increase in demand every year is precast concrete material.The increasing need for precast concrete is based on the advantages of using precast concrete materials, including saving processing time, neater results, easier work, and others [1].
However, this increase needs to be supported by the role of an efficient supply chain.Risk analysis in the supply chain is an important problem, because often companies are not aware of the risk until the risk appears and becomes a problem for the company, so it requires a lot of resources to resolve it, even though risk identification from the start in supply chain management can increase the market share of SMEs [2].The made to order system pattern in the precast concrete industry actually has shortcomings in its implementation, namely consumer uncertainty in determining the product they want to produce and the readiness schedule for use [3].This uncertainty requires further analysis regarding possible risks to the supply chain that may occur.During the supply chain process from the beginning to the manufacturing process and delivery of products and products to consumers, there may be risks such as product damage, or even the manufacturer having to replace a product.Therefore, in this regard, it is important to conduct a study on supply chain risk analysis in precast concrete.Research conducted by Utomo et al., (2019) explains that in the precast concrete industry, there are potential risks identified starting from the planning carried out to run the business well (plan), the resources used (source), the transformation process carried out out carried out to manage raw materials into products (make), delivery of consumer products (deliver), and returns that occur from consumers and suppliers (return) [4].

Risk and risk management
The definition of risk according to the Big Indonesian Dictionary (KBBI) is an unpleasant (harmful, harmful) result of an action or action.The definition of risk according to Hanafi (2006) risk is the magnitude of the deviation between the expected return and the actual return [5].According to Utomo et al., (2022) there are four ways or strategies that can be done in handling risk based on the level of risk, which include: 1. Accept risk, is a risk strategy at a minor level by accepting the risks that occur and maintain the risks as they are 2. Mitigate risk, is a risk strategy at a moderate level by reducing the impact and frequency of occurrence of risks that have the potential to harm the risk owner.3. Share risk, is a risk strategy at the major level by sharing the risk with the parties involved in a mutually agreed cooperation agreement.Avoid risk, is a risk strategy at the critical level by taking extraordinary actions to minimize risk [4].

Supply chain
Supply chain or Supply Chain was first used in 1980 by a number of logistics consultants, then in 1990 the supply chain was further analyzed by a number of academics.The supply chain is a series of interrelated companies and customers in the distribution of goods or services from the place of origin to the buyer or customer.The supply chain is a series of integrated processes and product flows from an organization or company that are joined in one supply chain to meet the needs of buyers or customers.If the supply chain is a physical network, then supply chain management (SCM) is a method, tool or management.

Supply chain risks
According to Cavinato (2006), supply chain management risk is divided into five categories, as follows.1. Material flow or physical flow, is a flow or network in which there is actual movement of material flow both within the company and between companies, either in the form of transportation, mobilization of servers, movement of shipments, storage and supplies.2. Financial flow, is a flow or network that contains the movement of money flows between organizations, the use of investment for the entire chain (or network), as well as the debt and receivable processing system.3. The flow of information, is a flow or network in which there is a process of moving data, capturing and using data, thus enabling a structured information exchange process.4. Relational flow, is a network of appropriate linkages between suppliers, organizations and customers of the organization in producing maximum benefits, including the internal supply network throughout the organization.5.The flow of innovation, is a renewal network that occurs between the parties involved in the supply chain so as to create effective and efficient products and services.This network is very relevant today, bearing in mind the need for readiness to face intense competition between construction companies [6].
Precast concrete is a concrete component without or with reinforcement that is cast before being assembled into a building, or as a concrete component that is cast in place rather than in its final position within the structure.Precast concrete is produced en masse and repeatedly.Precast concrete elements made in the field (factory) are connected at the building site to form a complete structure.Fabrication can be carried out at the project construction site or at a precast concrete industry company which is made by means of pre-tension (tensioning before casting) or posttension (tensioning after casting).

Population and sample
Population is a generalization area consisting of objects or subjects that have certain qualities and characteristics determined by researchers to be studied and then conclusions drawn [7].The population in this study were all precast concrete industry workers in South Denpasar District, precisely on Jln.By Pass Ngurah Rai Suwung Denpasar, totaling 18 people including 3 workers and 15 workers.

Sample determination method
The sample is part of the number and characteristics possessed by the population of a population [7].Sampling means taking only a portion of the population to describe the population as a whole.In this study the technique or sampling method used is saturated sampling.According to Sugiyono (2017) saturated sampling itself is a sampling technique that uses all members of the population as samples [7].The sample in this study was 18 people who were precast concrete industry workers in South Denpasar District, precisely on Jln.By Pass Ngurah Rai Suwung Denpasar.

Data analysis techniques
The analytical method is very important to identify relevant variables so that research results are obtained in accordance with the objectives.As input for carrying out this analysis is data and information from the respondents' questionnaires.After the data was collected, statistical data analysis was carried out using the SPSS (Statistical Program for Social Science) version 26 program to determine the validity and reliability of data regarding risk analysis assessments in the precast concrete industry supply chain.

Validity test
Validity test is used to measure whether a questionnaire is valid or not.A questionnaire is said to be valid if the questions in the questionnaire are able to reveal something that the questionnaire will measure [8].Measuring validity in this research was carried out by conducting a bivariate correlation between each indicator score and the total score (Pearson Correlation Coefficients) through the SPSS program.If the correlation coefficient between each indicator and the total score shows a positive total score and the magnitude is above 0.30 and is significant, it can be concluded that each indicator question or statement is valid.

Reliability test
Reliability Test is a tool for measuring a questionnaire which is an indicator of a variable or construct.A questionnaire is said to be reliable or reliable if a person's answers to statements are consistent or stable over time [8].Reliability measurement in this study used the Cronbach Alpha Test (α).A research instrument is said to be reliable if it gives a Cronbach Alpha value > 0.70 [8].

Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA)
The data in this study were collected through a questionnaire.The questionnaire contains identification of any supply chain risks that have occurred at the research location.Next, risk identification groups were carried out that were identified based on the results of a questionnaire that had been filled in using a 1-5 Likert scale to determine the risk probability and impact values.Then proceed with the risk analysis stage using the Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method, namely calculating risk on a scale of probability and risk impact in order to obtain a risk index value.The next stage of risk analysis is to carry out risk mapping, by placing the risk value on the mapping level and risk management.In risk mapping, the risk levels are classified into four, namely minor, moderate, major, and critical.
The supply chain stages of the make to order system at the research location are divided into five activities, namely planning (plan), procurement of raw materials (source), production (make), product delivery (deliver), and product return (return).At each stage of the supply chain, the number of risks that arise or may arise is identified and then a risk analysis is carried out using the FMEA method.After carrying out risk analysis using the FMEA method, the risk level for each type and stage of risk is known, namely minor, moderate, major and critical levels.Next, a risk management analysis is carried out with the following strategy.a. Accept risk, is a risk strategy at a minor level by accepting the risks that occur and maintaining the risks as they are b.Mitigate risk, is a risk strategy at a moderate level by reducing the impact and frequency of risk occurrence that has the potential to harm the risk owner.c.Share risk, is a risk strategy at a major level by sharing the risk with the parties involved in a mutually agreed Cooperation agreement d.Avoid risk, is a risk strategy at the critical level by accepting risk with extraordinary actions to minimize risk.
The use of sections to divide the text of the paper is optional and left as a decision for the author.Where the author wishes to divide the paper into sections the formatting shown in Table 2 should be used.

Research results and discussion
Respondent characteristics indicate the identity of the respondents used in this research.Respondents in the precast concrete industry have different characteristics or identities when filling out the questionnaire.The characteristics of the respondents in this study can be seen in Table 1

Research instrument test results validity test
The respondents used in this study were 18 precast concrete industry workers.Previously, validity and reliability testing was carried out on the questionnaire used as a research instrument in this study.An instrument is said to be valid if it has a coefficient greater than 0.30 with a significance value smaller than 0.05 [9].
Based on the results of the validity test presented in Table 3, it can be seen that the risk indicators in assessing probability and impact used in this research have a correlation coefficient value greater than 0.30 with a significance value smaller than 0.05.This shows that the statement items in the research instrument are valid and suitable for use as research instruments.

Reliability test results
The reliability test for this research instrument uses the Cronbach's Alpha value, which is a tool for measuring a questionnaire which is an indicator of the variables studied which in this research is used to measure the probability and impact of supply chain risks in the precast concrete industry.A research instrument is said to be reliable if the Cronbach's Alpha value is greater than or equal to 0.70 [9].The results of the research instrument reliability test can be seen in Table 4 below.Based on the reliability test results presented in Table 4, it can be seen that all the indicators used in this research have a Cronbach's Alpha coefficient of more than 0.70.So, it can be stated that the research instrument has met the reliability or reliability requirements so that it can be used for further analysis.

Risk analysis
Data analysis was carried out based on the results of filling out a questionnaire with a Likert scale of 1-5 from the level of rare risk with a value of 1 to 5 for the risk that most often occurs (almost certain), as explained in Table 5 below.Based on the supply chain stage, the number of risks that arise or may arise in the precast concrete industry will be identified.The results of identifying supply chain risks in the precast concrete industry will later carry out a risk analysis using the FMEA method.Based on the results of observations and interviews conducted by researchers, there were 20 supply chain risks identified.The results of supply chain risk identification in the precast concrete industry are presented in Table 6.Below.Based on Table 6, it can be seen that after conducting observations and interviews related to possible risks that may arise or risks that may arise in the supply chain in the precast concrete industry, as many as 20 risks were identified.

Risk Analysis using the FMEA
Method After testing the research instrument, namely the questionnaire and having been declared valid and reliable, then the questionnaire can then be used to conduct an analysis of the level of supply chain risk identified in the precast concrete industry based on the probability (P) and impact (I) of the risk.With regard to supply chain risk in the precast concrete industry, an assessment was carried out based on the probability and impact by the 18 respondents used in this study in relation to the 20 previously identified risks.The recapitulation of the results of the respondents' perceptions of the probability and impact of risk in this study is presented in Table 7.
The following.Based on the results of the risk analysis in Table 7, it can be seen that the level of risk for each type and stage of risk consists of minor, moderate, major and critical levels.Table 7 also shows that supply chain risk in the precast concrete industry is dominated by risks in the major category of 55%, followed by a minor risk level of 20%, a moderate risk level of 20%, and a critical 5%.Furthermore, an analysis of risk management is carried out with the following strategy.1. Accept risk, is a risk strategy at a minor level by accepting the risks that occur and maintain the risks as they are 2. Mitigate risk, is a risk strategy at a moderate level by reducing the impact and frequency of occurrence of risks that have the potential to harm the risk owner; 3. Share risk, is a risk strategy at the major level by sharing the risk with the parties involved in the Cooperation agreement that has been mutually agreed upon; 4. Avoid risk, is a risk strategy at a critical level by taking extraordinary actions to minimize risk.Based on the predetermined risk levels in Table 7 regarding supply chain risks in the precast concrete industry, an analysis of risk management and handling efforts is carried out based on the risk level.Management and handling of this risk is carried out based on interviews with employees of PT.Adi Jaya Beton according to the company's experience in dealing with supply chain risks that occur or may occur in the precast concrete industry.Based on this, a critical risk is obtained that needs to be responded to by the company with the considerations that have been prepared at the initial order of the product in order to anticipate the risks that arise.As for the management and handling of supply chain risk, the strategies formulated based on the level of risk can be seen in Table 8. below.Source: Primary Data Processed (2023) Based on the risk analysis carried out, the level of risk that is of particular concern to companies with a very significant impact is risk with a critical level, namely the risk of returning precast products because the product arrives in a defective condition such as crumbling, shrinkage cracks and warping.This shows that the risk with the highest ranking is at the return stage where the level is critical with an explanation of the risk of product returns from consumers due to precast products arriving not in accordance with agreed standards or quality.Risk management at the critical level is included in avoid risk, where risks cannot be avoided so extraordinary handling must be carried out, immediately and as quickly as possible in order to minimize the impact of greater risks.The emerging risk categories are included in the risk management group with accept risk, mitigate risk, and share risk where risk management is still considered to be more easily handled by the company.

Conclusion
Based on the results of the research and discussion that have been described previously, it can be concluded as follows.In connection with the identification of supply chain risks in the precast concrete industry, 20 risks are identified that arise or may arise in the supply chain in the precast concrete industry with a made to order system.At the critical level, one risk is identified, namely the risk of returning precast products because the product arrives in a defective condition such as porous, cracked, shrunken, and bent.Regarding the level of risk, supply chain risk in the precast concrete industry is categorized into four levels, namely minor, moderate, major, critical levels.At the minor level there are four risks, at the moderate level there are four risks, at the major level there are eleven risks, while at the critical level there is one risk.Based on the risk analysis carried out, the level of risk that is of particular concern to companies with a very significant impact is risk with a critical level, namely the risk of returning precast products because the product arrives in a defective condition such as crumbling, shrinkage cracks and warping.This shows that the risk with the highest ranking is at the return stage where the level is critical with an explanation of the risk of product returns from consumers due to precast products arriving not in accordance with agreed standards or quality.Supply chain risk handling in the precast concrete industry can be carried out based on the level of risk, namely by accepting risk, mitigating risk, sharing risk, and avoiding risk.Risk management at the critical level is included in avoid risk, where risks cannot be avoided so extraordinary handling must be carried out, immediately and as quickly as possible in order to minimize the impact of greater risks.The emerging risk categories are included in the risk management group with accept risk, mitigate risk, and share risk where risk management is still considered to be more easily handled by the company.

Table 1 .
Characteristics of respondents.

Table 2 .
Reliability test results of research instruments.

Table 3 .
Probability and impact scale.

Table 4 .
Identified supply chain risks in the precast concrete industry.

Table 5 .
Recapitulation of risk analysis calculation results.

Table 6 .
Risk management/handling strategy based on risk level.