The role of agile+bim+tunnel innovation in ensuring economic efficiency and security on backbone infrastructure expansion

. This article explores the key lean and safe technologies used for unique transportation projects to expand highway infrastructure. Given today's digital requirements, there are trends to reduce time, cost, and safety, but all of this is possible by introducing several key innovations into the design and construction process. New lean BIM technologies, methods of adaptive flexible Agile-approach have completely transformed modern design technologies and with the application of safe work, methods allow not only to carry out safe reconstruction of transport facilities but also to act as a high-tech locomotive of the transport industry, capable of making a significant contribution of lean production for innovative development of the Eastern polygon. The main task of the reconstruction as a modern intensive ecologically safe production of construction works is necessarily considered with efficient resource consumption and nature management. The authors conclude that the reconstruction of BAM tunnels acts today as the main direction and sets a vector of innovation in the field of investment and innovation projects. Improvement of design activity and presented collective work of specialists of technical and economic specializations of PSUPS of two faculties in the field of tunnel reconstruction should be rightfully named as a prospective resource of economic development in the field of transport construction. The main project technologies under consideration in the innovation aspect: Agile+Bim, economic innovations on the choice of optimal strategy taking into account risk and uncertainty for scenario analysis by Monte-Carlo simulation method, technological innovations using the specialized technological complex for tunnel reconstruction

interregional relations are the strengthening of railway communication and the expansion of transport backbone infrastructure.
It is today that there are great challenges associated with the innovative design of transport construction in the context of global turbulence and uncertainty.
Investments in rail transport facilities will ensure sustainable growth of freight flows eastward by introducing innovations that determine the effectiveness of project management under the constraints of safety and uncertainty.
The key cargo of the Eastern Range is coal. The main current trend of coal transportation is the reorientation of exports from the Atlantic direction toward eastern consumers. Therefore, to strengthen the competitiveness of Russian coal producers on the international market, it seems logical to shift coal production to the east.
Under such conditions, the tendency to optimize the market economy and innovation management is becoming more and more relevant.
In the study, the efficiency methodology is tested on the example of the innovative project of reconstruction of the Severomuisk Tunnel (SMT).
The problems in the economy under turbulent conditions once again emphasize the importance of implementing innovative projects for the reconstruction of railway tunnels within the strategic priorities identified in the Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030 with a forecast for the period up to 2035, the Program of Development of the Coal Industry of Russia until 2035 and the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2035. The need to develop a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects for the reconstruction of railway tunnels forms the prerequisites for the relevance of this study.
Thus, the relevance of the study is due to the anticipated structural changes in the economy of the regions of the Eastern polygon in connection with the implementation of innovative projects for the reconstruction of railway tunnels, as well as the need to supplement the scientific and methodological approach to the evaluation of the effectiveness of innovative projects.
The object of the study-the enterprises of the region, whose activities are related to the implementation of innovative projects for the reconstruction of railway transport tunnels.
The subject of the study procedures for assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects in the reconstruction of railway transport tunnels under the constraints of safety and uncertainty.
The purpose is to evaluate the effectiveness of investment and innovation projects in the reconstruction of railway transport tunnels under conditions of safety constraints and uncertainty.

Research Objectives
1. Analysis of the ratio of value and constraints of project management of an innovation project. 2. Analysis of innovations used in tunnel reconstruction (principles of flexible project management "Agile", digital models of BIM geological environment, safe methods of tunnel reconstruction). 3. Analysis of object-analogs to form the cost of technological innovation with the use of a specialized technological complex for the reconstruction of "tunnel in the tunnel". 4. Construction of cash flow model to assess the effectiveness of innovative projects.
Calculation of NPD indicator to assess the effectiveness of innovative projects for the reconstruction of railway tunnels. Selection of optimal strategy taking into account risk and uncertainty by Monte-Carlo simulation method (Monte-Carlo Simulation),

Research methodology
Project management is based on generating outcomes under time and cost constraints. However, the project is implemented under conditions of uncertainty and turbulence. The existing rigid (cascade) management methods allow taking risk and uncertainty factors into account. The modern eco-trend of lean project management is the Agile approach. A flexible "Agile" management system will allow you to take into account changing conditions in the project management mode. Elements of this approach should be applied as innovative management techniques in the field of railway construction as well.
It should be noted that the proportion of successful investment projects will increase with the ability to use flexible "Agile" management combined with digital technology Bim. These approaches are recommended for use in the project management process to maximize the effectiveness of innovation, security, and efficiency. The benefits of agile project management have been proven in the IT industry, but this method has hardly been used in the construction industry and its applicability has not been studied. For the unique complex innovative projects of reconstruction/construction of railway tunnels, there is a high probability of changes in the order of underground works, their timing, and cost in comparison with typical projects of buildings and constructions. Therefore, the application of cascade management methodology is not reasonable. As a rule, it is connected with inevitable changes during tunnel reconstruction and the necessity of constant adjustments at all stages of design, construction, and operation which requires the involvement of additional volume of all kinds of resources and significant costs.
Systems for creating information models (Bim) are designed for subsequent agile project management. The most difficult is to use the advantages of flexible methodology at the stage of operation, where iterative interaction of all participants is required. From this point of view, it is in the process of flexible operation a large amount of data with actual information on the real technical condition of the tunnel crossing object, information on scheduled, overhaul and replacement and (or) restoration of the main and auxiliary structures, materials and equipment is introduced into the object model.
Flexible management has a significant impact at the stage of preliminary analysis of the project of construction of unique buildings and structures, as it allows for to identify of alternatives and possible risks, expand technical and economic solutions in a joint iterative interaction of all participants of the project process with the development of high-quality complex unique solutions at a minimum cost of time, human, financial resources. Collection and analysis of baseline data are made by the customer in close coordination with the design organizations and are completed by the development of technical specifications for the design.
That is why Gostech1 recommended the use of advanced innovative methods of project activities: Scrum, Kanban, and other modern methods of development based on "Agile" as the most important leaving point in digital transformation.
The effectiveness of management with "Agile" techniques-ensuring maximum value (performance), and maximum quality (safety) under the constraints of time, cost, and uncertainty.
This innovation is implemented in the first stages of the project, with particular attention to issues related to the analysis of risk factors and uncertainty in the current economic situation in the country, including the logistic transport infrastructure of the BAM.
To assess the mutual influence of sets of hazardous phenomena (risks), as well as the degree and nature of their mutual influence during the reconstruction of the Severomuisk Tunnel (SMT), significant links between specific types of hazardous phenomena are identified. In the practical implementation of risk theory, an approach to actualization and control of geotechnical risks risk-oriented approach was developed. Combinations and indicators of hazardous processes and phenomena can vary significantly at different intervals of the extended SMT and at different times. This requires a dynamic approach to the assessment, prediction, and reduction of the probability of emergencies, as well as minimization of failures and losses in different sections of this unique transport facility. Therefore, it is advisable to consider the impact of negative natural and man-made factors on underground structures from the standpoint of risk management theory and use a risk-oriented approach.

BIM and digital models of the geological environment
The application and development of BIM technology in the field of civil engineering are now becoming increasingly mature, but in the field of underground transportation construction, the application of BIM technology is still in its infancy, even abroad. The Weimar University-Bauhaus (according to Koch 1 et al., 2017) proposes the integration of solutions based on a single digital platform, which accelerates the multidisciplinary interaction of specialists and efficiency and contract managers. Unfortunately, currently in Russia, we can identify single pilot projects that undergo state expertise in 2022 with geotechnical data and digitalization of the GIS of the linear structure using BIM technology, but this can lead to higher risks and construction costs, because of the uncertainty of soil conditions, determined by the small amount of research and heterogeneity of soils, among other things, is one of the greatest sources of risks in construction projects.
Analysis of the impact of the digital process of monitoring the geological and geodesic environment shows that with the help of new digital technologies you can apply a riskoriented approach and reduce most of the risks that lead to a significant increase in the cost of underground works.
Problems that can be solved with the use of BIM technology at the survey stage for the design or reconstruction of tunnels (including for SMT) will help design teams and specialized design institutes to obtain information modeling technology for the following sections of the project as 3D subsystems with attributive information: • Geology (geological bodies, massifs or fractures, mineralogical and physicalmechanical composition, drillings, 3D scanning (such as LIDAR laser scanning equipment) and/or similar), etc; • Engineering-geodetic surveys (topographic survey, networks, plan justification, 3D scanning (for example, geodetic devices and equipment LEICA or analogs), survey with aerial drones, deformation phenomena monitoring, tunnel vault, and backward vaulting, etc.); • Tunnel tubing products (tubing products, reinforcements, reinforced lining structures); • Artificial and technological structures (entrance groups, drainage, shafts, drainagetransport tunnels, junctions, technological recesses for engineering networks and equipment, lighting and ventilation, etc.); • Engineering systems of the tunnel and drainage-transport tunnel.

Modern methods of tunnel reconstruction -"tunnel in the tunnel
In Germany and other European countries, railroad tunnels have been used since the middle of the 19th century. Many of these tunnels no longer meet the requirements of modern rail traffic. Currently, under difficult conditions, while maintaining train schedules, tunnels are being repaired and rebuilt with a service life of more than 160 years. To ensure safe work during tunnel reconstruction, a protective fence (metal tunnel shield) designed to physically separate zones of construction work in the tunnel is proposed. The purpose of these works is to widen the overall approach dimension of the structures and to replace the lining that poses a hazard during the operation. Such works are carried out by GTA under the protection of a metal tunnel (gantry in the form of a self-propelled protective screen), which allows the complex rearrangement of the tunnel vault. The tunnel lining rework can be realized using this system alone while keeping the wall segments or by comprehensively changing the existing tunnel lining into a new lining with a larger inner profile. The first two tunnels that have been successfully widened with the new technology in Germany are the Jährodter Tunnel and the Mausenmühlen Tunnel on the Nahe line operated by Deutsche Bahn.
The authors have analyzed modern methods of tunnel reconstruction, which allow to carry out repair works without interrupting traffic (without closing the traffic) using the technological complex for transport tunnel extension (for example, Tunnel Enlargement Gantry TEP 8400 or Herrenknecht D835) with protective shield for excavation construction by mining method: internal method of tunnel widening, using mechanical drilling methods or with the excavation by drilling and blasting.
A basic pilot tunnel-in-tunnel method that was first applied to the a.d. Montedomini Tunnel in Italy (2004-2007), and then the positive experience was transferred to railroads decades later. The method of anticipatory consolidation applied to the Montedomini Tunnel has several advantages, such as the lower risk of operation, better air quality, lower noise level, and convenient communication between the two sides of the tunnel to be widened. However, it should be kept in mind that the expansion of existing tunnels without stopping traffic is not always feasible compared to other reconstruction options.
Comparison of analogs of tunnel reconstruction without stopping traffic by the "tunnelin-tunnel" method by variants: Theoretical approaches for mastering the above-described innovations Agile+Bim+Tunnel in Tunnel can be presented as modern future pilot projects with a preliminary estimate of the cost of new construction and reconstruction of BAM tunnels ( Table 1). The range of options in terms of cost and construction time (for example, for the SMT option at a length of 15.343 km) can be significantly expanded in connection with the construction of the tunnel drainage and transportation adit and without including the new adit in the design and estimate documentation, in case of a reduction in the financing of pilot projects. Duration of work. years 10 6.5-7 9-10 Fig. 1 shows an example of the safe reconstruction of railway tunnels using the "tunnelin-tunnel" technology for the Baikal-Amur Mainline, which presents an innovation using a technological complex to expand tunnels for double-track traffic without stopping the traffic. Fig. 1. Example of safe tunnel reconstruction without traffic closure using the "tunnel-in-tunnel" technology (symbols: 1-contour of the temporary lining before construction of permanent lining, 2 and 9-outlines of Gabat C for railway rolling stock, 3-structure of the dismantled oversized lining of the existing tunnel, 4 and 5-outlines of preferential Gabat T for railway rolling stock, 6-level of rail head (UGR), 7-protective metal frame for safe reconstruction works, 8-fragment of equipment (metal circles), 10-underground wheel loader).
The strategy for making decisions to implement innovative projects begins with an assessment of the public value of the project, and then the assessment of commercial effectiveness.
The social importance of the project is more multifaceted than budgetary efficiency. However positive values of budgetary efficiency allow for the allocation of a role of the innovative project within the redistribution of scarce resources and demonstrate the efficiency of decisions in the sphere of management of the national and regional economy.
Innovative projects of railway transport form significant flows of tax and insurance deductions. It is customary to call such cash flows-internal effects.
To assess the multiplier effect, we should consider a set of the nearest interrelated industries. These include enterprises for mining and processing industries, as well as transport activities for loading and unloading in ports. They form the external effects of the investment project.
Both internal and external effects generate a set of tax and insurance deductions. Based on the model of cash flows of tax and insurance deductions, the estimation of budgetary efficiency of innovative projects is carried out.
In the authors' study, the commercial efficiency of reconstruction is defined as the ratio of the increase in the net profit of freight transportation through the tunnel as a outcome of its reconstruction to the required level of investment for the reconstruction of the tunnel, strengthening the bypass, taking into account the operating costs of maintaining the tunnel and the bypass.
Assessment of commercial efficiency is based on the increase in freight flows associated with the innovative project. The choice of the recommended option is made based on deterministic performance indicators: simple and discounted payback period, the net present value of the project, internal rate of return, as well as probabilistic: risk level, cost of risk, expectation, and standard deviation of commercial effectiveness of investment (PDI).
The outcomes of calculations for single-track and double-track reconstruction projects are presented in the analysis. If you change the reconstruction project from single-track (investments-57.7 billion rubles) to double-track (investments-92 billion rubles) the expected NPV will increase to 450 billion rubles (3.5 times). Net discounted income (net present value NPV, NPV) of the tunnel reconstruction project without the second track device will make 128 billion rubles ( fig. 2): However, under conditions of uncertainty, methods of risk accounting and assessment should be applied. Underestimation of risks in the early stages of project concept development will hurt the project objectives at various stages of the life cycle and will lead to an increase in the cost and timing of project construction, increased capital and operating costs, and reduced economic efficiency of the project. Complex technological and naturalclimatic factors complicate the construction and installation work, which may contribute to an increase in the timing and cost of construction (reconstruction) of transport facilities. For the final choice of the optimal strategy, it is necessary to take into account natural and manmade risks as an additional cost (percentages or coefficients of construction cost increase).
There is an objective possibility of hazardous natural processes and technogenic impacts on the territory where the reconstruction, construction, and operation of the tunnel complex will be carried out. The whole unique complex of natural-climatic, landscapegeomorphological, geological, and structural-tectonic conditions of the transport section under consideration determines very complex hydrogeological conditions of the territory and mining technical features of construction in the Severomuisky ridge interval.
The authors analyzed the risks and accepted that the allocation of the main parameters considered as a risk, which will be modeled in the form of random variables, taking into account natural and man-made risks and cost of works (investments), which will be for the reconstruction-3029.25 million rubles and new construction-6,744.15 million rubles.
The second key group of risks is accepted in the range of 10 to 12%, depending on the macroeconomic situation and changes in the structure and volume of cargo flows by cargo To account for the risk factors under consideration, the method of assessment based on the combined method of computer simulation is applied. The method of simulation modeling (Monte Carlo method) provides for the construction of a probabilistic model of the integral effect of the risk factors determining the value of the investment project. The values of risk factors in each simulation experiment are selected randomly based on generating random numbers within the specified limits of their variation. The outcomes of all simulation experiments are combined into a single sample and analyzed using statistical methods to obtain a probability distribution of the integral effect and assess the degree of riskiness of the project. The expediency of simulation method application in risk analysis of tunnel construction projects in complex conditions is caused, first of all, by a rather high degree of their uncertainty.
Developed a Monte Carlo method with the imposition of events, which can be limited to the duration of the project (the duration of reconstruction work-6.5 years and construction-10 years), and this algorithm can be used to model the transportation of goods of 11 categories, including coal growth in the preparation of various versions of the development projections, taking on the original (initial) step.
The main stage-Determination of the characteristics of the distribution of the net present value of the project, using the obtained as a outcome of the cycle of simulation calculations of the cost of risks based on the modules of the program "Alt-Invest". With the help of this toolkit, we conduct risk analysis, search for the optimal solution (option) with the financial justification of the investment project, and assessment of investment efficiency. As a outcome of the spent calculations, analytical expressions-without taking into account (deterministic estimation) and taking into account risks and growth of freight traffic by the Monte-Carlo method for a total value of BFD are received. The optimal choice of the strategic decision follows from the maximum value on the total value of PDD, taking into account the risks by the Monte Carlo method.
Thus, an assessment of the effectiveness of innovative investment projects in the reconstruction of railway transport tunnels in conditions of constraints: safety and uncertainty.
In the course of the study the tasks were solved: 1. The analysis of the correlation of value and limitations of project management of the innovation project was carried out. It was revealed that the implementation of the system of innovation in the field of technology has limitations on security and uncertainty. Agile management procedures "Agile" are proposed. 2. Analysis of innovations used in tunnel reconstruction (digital models of geological environment, safe methods of "tunnel-in-tunnel" reconstruction, principles of flexible project management "Agile") is carried out. Examples of the implementation of innovations during the reconstruction of the Severomuisky tunnel are given.
The analysis of object analogs forms the cost of technological innovations is presented. To assess the effectiveness of innovations by single-track and double-track reconstruction options. 3. A cash flow model to assess the effectiveness of innovative projects for the reconstruction of railway tunnels in the deterministic and probabilistic formulation is built. The calculation of PDD indicator to assess the effectiveness of innovative reconstruction projects for the options: the arrangement of single-track and double-track tunnels. The method of Monte-Carlo simulation is offered to take into account the safety requirements at the stage of efficiency substantiation. The analysis of risk factors is performed.
The calculations performed to increase the efficiency of management decision-making, taking into account the growth of freight intensity of the Eastern Polygon and the cost of tunnel operation with bypassing the example of SMT and confirmed the economic efficiency