Pedestrian Flows Analysis to Create a Sustainable Development Concept for a Metropolitan Area

. This article presents the results of structuring the territory adjacent to Pryanishnikov Street in the Timiryazevsky District of the Northern Administrative District of Moscow. The key objects of the street road network that form the pedestrian flows are highlighted. The rules of interaction between pedestrian flows and the influence of external factors have been established. Based on this we constructed undirected graphs reflecting the connectivity of pedestrian routes, the influence of infrastructure objects on them, and the density of flows depending on the time of day and days of the week. Such results are the basis for simulation modeling, allowing to obtain an adequate model to assess the impact of decisions on the area development, and the operational management of traffic and pedestrian flows of the street road network.


Introduction
The organization and management of pedestrian flow in an urban environment is a pressing problem. Every year in the cities the level of high-rise development increases, the number of local residents and citizens engaged in labor migration -all this forms a load not only on the transport but also in general on the street road network. Decisions affecting the landscaping and development of areas determine the degree of convenience for city residents. This problem is particularly acute in a metropolitan area. As Naumova notes in [1], responding to the constantly changing situation in the street and road network requires a minimum of time between getting the initial parameters and the results of problem solving. This requires the use of transport intelligent systems considering pedestrian flows.
The basis for such systems is the mathematical modeling of all objects and subjects involved in the processes in the study area.
The difficulty for such systems is volatile processes due to the unstable behavior of the system objects (the human factor introduces instability). Scientists in their works divide a complex system into subsystems, which are subsequently elementary objects for analysis and modeling [2]. As Beclarian notes in his work [3], a simulation model that demonstrates human behavior is a flexible modeling tool. Such a tool allows simulating the behavior of different types of pedestrians, which increases the degree of identity of the results of pedestrian flows and real-world processes. Evaluation of the results allows forming a concept for the sustainable development of the area.
Thus, the study aims to create rules for the impact of pedestrian flows on the street road network and its facilities.
The theoretical implication of the study is to obtain a model of pedestrian routes and their dependence on internal and external factors on the section of the street road network. The use of such results allows to establish patterns of population movement to create a concept or model for the improvement and development of the area. Such results are necessary for the creation of urban development plans, the organization of traffic, and the need for public transport. All this determines the practical implication of the study.

Objects and Methods
The object of the study is the pedestrian flows in the area adjacent to Pryanishnikov Street in the Northern Administrative District of Moscow. The site is bounded by Bolshaya Akademicheskaya and Timiryazevskaya Streets.
The following methods were used to study the object:

1.
A structuring method that allows getting all the key objects and their characteristics. As Logachev [4] and Roulland [5] point out in their works, the results obtained during the application of such a method allow qualitatively organize the design of information systems, for example, for making management decisions.

2.
Graph theory methods. The use of such allows getting a schematic representation of the modeling object, consisting of nodes and edges connecting them. For the current study, the edges are sections of the actual path taken by pedestrians, and the nodes are decision points on the direction of the subsequent movement. The resulting graph allows evaluating all the routes for length, duplication of sections, travel time, ease of travel, etc. [6,7]. 3. The analysis method allows to establish regularities in the formation of the pedestrian route from various factors (e.g., location of stops, crosswalks, etc.) [8,9].

Results
As a result of using the structurization method, the team of authors obtained the main objects and characteristics of the section of Pryanishnikov Street used by pedestrians. Such objects include: 1. Public transport stops (non-adjacent stops of streetcar and bus routes, located at a distance from each other). It should be noted that stops for the same type of public transport in opposite directions are not combined.
2. Crosswalks, one of which is unregulated (the exit from Pryanishnikov Street towards Bolshaya Akademicheskaya Street).
3. Natural sidewalk limiters. On much of the site, the sidewalk rests on the Great Garden Pond. This fact does not allow to widen the sidewalk or install a bus stop due to the physical lack of space. It should be noted that the investigated section of Pryanishnikov Street is a dam, and the sidewalks with the roadway are at a significant elevation from the water level of the pond. On the opposite side is a public garden.

4.
Departmental facilities with fencing close to the sidewalk (buildings and laboratories of higher education institutions). Pedestrian flows are lined up in relation to the listed objects. Using graph theory methods allowed building a model showing the paths of pedestrians (Fig. 1). The resulting model in Fig. 1 is an undirected graph, combined for clarity with a map of the area considering its features. It should be noted that the traffic in the allocated sections is carried out in all directions. This means that at a moment on the same section can move two streams of pedestrians in opposite directions.
The symbols on the graph provided allow evaluation of the following characteristics: 1. Pedestrians delay at certain points. This, for example, is associated with waiting at a stop for the arrival of public transport, waiting for a traffic light signal, and free for the passage of the road at an unregulated crosswalk.
2. The passage from the waiting area to the streetcar stop, as passengers are boarding and disembarking on the roadway.
3. Crossing the road in forbidden places. Analysis of the location of the facilities on the ground showed that to save time (and reduce the distance covered), some pedestrians violate traffic rules and cross the road from the streetcar drop-off area to the opposite side in a place close to the entrance to the educational institution (routes ID or PE). Table 1 presents the characteristics of routes that can be used by pedestrians in the designated study area. It should be noted that the role of the visitor to form a walking route does not matter, i.e., the route of the applicant and the student (or employee and one-time visitor) do not differ from each other. This is due to the fact that there are no specific activities that require the presence of a pedestrian with a unique role in the enclosures adjacent to the study site.
In addition, the team of authors does not distinguish categories of people taking a walk. This means that a pedestrian can use any means of transportation (i.e., a scooter).
Using the analysis method for the routes of Figure 1 and the data from Table 1, the team of authors obtained the congestion of the sections of Pryanishnikov Street depending on the day of the week and time of day (Fig. 2).

Monday-Saturday 08:30-18:00
Sunday (all day), Monday-Saturday (before 08:30 and after 18:00) The distribution of flow densities over time depends on the goal of pedestrians. Weekday site congestion is due to two universities with large student and staff populations. It should be noted that for universities Saturday is a working day, so there is the same workload of routes as in the middle of the working week.

Discussion
The results obtained in the course of the study are input independent parameters for simulation modeling, allowing to evaluate different scenarios for the organization of traffic or pedestrian flows, landscaping options, etc. The works of Logachev [10], Krasnikov [9], and Dinda [11] confirm this statement. Conducting a traffic feature analysis of road users is an important need in simulation modeling for a traffic control system. Such conclusions are drawn in the works of Babicheva [12] and Basbas [13], which confirm the importance of the findings. As Shchukina notes in her work [6], the results of the analysis of pedestrian flows allow estimating the time to get people to workplaces, the connectivity of neighborhoods, traffic safety, and other indicators. Such indicators allow the creation of the area development concept to improve life quality and safety, and organize environmentally sustainable urbanization, i.e., reducing the impact on the environment, landscaping, transport system development, etc.

Conclusion
The use of general scientific methods in the course of the study allowed obtaining valid results, suitable for the construction of simulation models of different types and complexity.
The quality of a model is determined by the exact rules of interaction between objects, external influences, and the adequacy of input parameters. The totality of such characteristics allows creating a model of the area using which it is possible to implement various scenarios of improvement, traffic flows, emergencies to assess its stability, recoverability, and other parameters.