Analysis of the dynamics and patterns of paddy field use – A case study

. Any emerging economy that relies heavily on agriculture must go through the process of agricultural development in order to hasten economic progress. Agriculture is a crucial primary sector. The focus of agricultural development schemes has shifted to productivity increase as growth from expansion has reached a plateau. The present study asses the donation of area, yield and their commerce to growth in product of rice as well as the composite periodic growth rate in area, product and yield of rice in Kerala. Kerala's husbandry has undergone substantial structural changes, including a fall in its share of the state's GDP and commercialization of agriculture. In the state, both the net sown area and the gross cropped area have decreased over time. Kerala is now in a state of food insecurity as a result of the changes in land use patterns, which have resulted in a major conversion of paddylands for the development of cash crops and for non-agricultural purposes. The study comes to the conclusion that Kerala's food insecurity, rapid exposure of husbandry, and confederated conditioning are all results of the absence of an effective land application strategy. The most recent SPSS and XLSTAT versions were used to produce the results in this study. The researcher contends that paddy agriculture as a whole has to be improved.


Introduction
Agrarian culture in kerala has many significant changes nowadays. Despite this, most nomads still rely on agriculture for their jobs and livelihoods. Currently, Kerala faces severe food security challenges due to its small food base. The rice area in Kerala was 8.7 million hectares in 1970-71 and vacant land of 1.97 million hectares in 2012-13. During this time, rice products decreased from tens of thousands of tons to 50 thousand tons. Growing demographic pressures and secondary and tertiary sector development are diverting farmland across the country to build housing, marketable facilities, roads, health and education facilities, and more. Decreasing profitability of paddy fields, shortage of agricultural workers and sharp rise in wages, conversion of paddy fields to other uses, etc., are the main reasons for the decline of rice cultivation civilization in Kerala. Kerala is currently running a 90% deficit in food production. steep drop in the rice field cultivation increased food insecurity, rural unemployment and environmental protection ecological problem. Changes in the agricultural sector will inevitably affect the livelihoods of many people, the environment and society as a whole. Therefore, this study deserves special attention at this time. This study is important in that it examines trends in rice cultivation not only at the national level but also at the county level and understands the differences at the county level. This study is very useful in understanding state-and district-level variations in rice area, yield and productivity over time. Moreover, such studies are very helpful in identifying the causes of the decline in rice production and in suggesting policy recommendations for redesigning rice production.

Statement of the problem
Since the mid-1970s, the agricultural economy in Kerala is changing structurally in favour of cash crops, which is contributing to the state's difficulties with food insecurity. Rice output has been continuously dropping in Kerala. This study examines state-level trends in rice area, yield, and productivity from 1980 to 2020 and predicts future paddy yields from 2021 to 2023..Land-use patterns and agricultural issues have a greater impact attracting much attention from the environment, research and politics maker. Therefore, this study has interdisciplinary relevance. Kerala's rice crop has been steadily declining since the 1980s. The sharp decline in rice planted area and rice production in the state has important implications for the economic, environmental and social development of Kerala. It is a meaningful study to investigate the trends of rice cultivation not only in the state. In order to understand the difference not only at the level but also at the district level, we will also explain it at the district level. This study is very helpful in understanding variation at the state and district level in terms of area and production, productivity of paddy fields over a period of time. Also, studies like this are very helpful for Investigation of the cause of the decline of rice cultivation and policy proposals. This analysis is both descriptive and analytical in nature. The study is being done using the secondary data from official sources. The data source was collected from various editions of the Kerala Economic Review by the Kerala State Planning Commission, Bureau of economics and statistics, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala. In order to investigate changes in paddy production during the survey period, we will analyze production area, yields, and commodities by products. Main terminologies used are correlation and regression (linear and multiple regression), time series analysis.

Objectives of the study
• To analyse Kerala agriculture scenario of paddy cultivation • Investigating trends in rice area, yield and productivity in Kerala • To predict the upcoming production of paddy from 2021 to 2030

Fig. 2. Graph for area and production
In addition to some environmental and ecological issues, the decline in the area planted to paddy and the resulting decline in paddy produce have caused food insecurity in Kerala. The environment of the rice-growing agricultural wetland offers a vast array of goods and services both directly and indirectly.
There are a multitude of socioeconomic and ecological effects of converting paddy fields. Figure 2 illustrates how, between 1980 and 2020, both production and area usage are steadily declining. The graph in Figure 3 shows the consumption of area is decreasing as well as the production level is steadily decreasing from 1980-2020 but the ratio of input to output is steadily increasing.  The multiple regression analysis indicates that the coefficients of Productivity and Area influenced, is 990 and the adjusted R square value is 0.981.
There fore, the findings suggested that the overall 98.1% of the variance in current choice has been explained by the predictors and p-value(p>0.05) so, this study concluded that these factors are not significant and accept the null hypothesis that the production decreases area wise.  .002 Production Y= 0 + 1(Area) + 2(productivity)+ ε, were 0 is the constant term 1, 2are the coefficients and ε is the error factor. 0 =-36543, 1 = 1.138, 2=.0.169The value of beta variables counts measures how strongly each predictor variable influences the criterion variables. There is 16.9% increase in productivity.

The trends in production and productivity of paddy in Kerala
The below given graph give the interpretation of the data including production and productivity of paddy shows that both of them are in positive growth phase at the intial stages and then it keeps a uniformity and later it is steadily decreasing.   Production Forecasting showed that there is a decreasing trend in production, in this study forecasting of production is done for 10 years since 2021. Table 7 . Forecasting of Productivity Productivity forecasting shows that there is an increasing trend in productivity, the study shows the forecast of productivity for 10 years from 2021 to 2031.
Forecasting of paddy product is a need for planning purposes and import policies of rice should be grounded on similar forecasts. The prediction of rice yield plays a major part in reducing food security problems in Kerala and also government can make future strategic decision-making policies. From the forecasting graph, we can see that the production is steadily decreasing.

Conclusion
This analysis provided a very encouraging insight regarding the possibility of increasing paddy production with effort : The ratio of output to input has been steadily rising, despite the annual decline in paddy production. Kerala has a low base in food products and a declining share of agriculture in its Gross State Domestic Product. Kerala's paddy product has been steadily declining since the middle of the 1970s, and the agrarian economy has undergone a structural shift toward cash crops, resulting in the issue of food insecurity. The main factors contributing to the decline of paddy civilization in Kerala are a decrease in the probability of paddy crop, a shortage of laborers and an increase in their stipend, and the conversion of paddy lands for other uses, among other things. The lofty fall in paddy progress has enhanced food precariousness, serious joblessness and natural as well as biological issues.