Analysis of risks arising at the stages of production, transportation, installation of large-sized modules in the design position

. The paper considers the prospects for the development of large-sized modular housing construction in the face of industrial and managerial risks. The authors consider the risks identified at the time of production of a large-sized module, transportation and installation in the design position. The risk planning management algorithm is considered. The article identifies the factors that arise at the stage of production, transportation, installation of a large-sized module in the design position. A literary analysis was carried out on the topic of large-sized volume-block housing construction. The technical and economic prerequisites for the construction of buildings from large-sized modules and obtaining an economic effect are considered, in comparison with the construction of similar buildings in a large-panel or monolithic design. An algorithm for studying potentially significant factors is considered. Practical experiments were carried out, which made it possible to determine the risks affecting the quality of large-sized modules. The task of this work is to identify risks that affect the quality of large-sized modules at various stages: production, transportation, installation of a large-sized module in the design position. As a result, risks were identified by three groups for further qualitative and quantitative analysis, response planning, monitoring, and risk management. The relevance of the considered topic lies in the implementation of investment projects, in their implementation in the field of management.


Introduction
According to the strategy approved by the Government of the Russian Federation dated October 31, 2022 No. 3268-r, on the development of the construction industry and housing and communal services of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 with a forecast until 2035, it is necessary to ensure the development of industrial housing construction, including block housing construction [1].Large-sized space-block housing construction allows you to provide the population by today's standards with inexpensive and comfortable housing.During the production of large modules, due to the production line at the house-building plant, the accuracy of manufactured reinforced concrete products is increased, less process waste is generated, and high quality of finished products is ensured under the rooftop.Large modules with high degree of prefabrication up to 95% are transported to the construction site -comprehensively equipped with engineering systems, facade systems, windows and with completed interior decoration.At the stages of production of large modules, transportation and installation into the design position, risks arise that have a significant impact on the quality of modular products [2][3][4].
The authors assessed the inevitably emerging of risks situations at the house-building plant, during transportation and at the construction site, which must be worked out in order to implement similar methods of prevention, identification and response in order to minimize or eliminate risks affecting the quality of the finished large module [5][6][7].This article discusses the risks identified during the manufacture of the large module, transportation and installation into the design position.

Materials and methods
During the study, the following methods of scientific research were used: analysis, synthesis and deduction, in order to systematize and analyze information within the framework of the current study.This work is aimed at studying the impact of production and management risks on the quality of a large module.For the analysis were used initial data, regulatory documents, research studies, internal documents of LLC "Combine of Innovative Technologies -Monarch," including technological documentation and reports on the achieved results of the experiment in the field.
Within the framework of construction organizations, special attention is paid to the risk management and assessment process, on the basis that they help supervisors to rationally identify possible losses, develop a system of measures to eliminate them, and of course, during risk management, these measures allow companies to predict their economic effect.
It is impossible to fully prevent risks in the company, meanwhile, it will be possible to investigate and implement preventive methods for identifying, preventing and eliminating them as soon as possible in order to avoid or at least reduce the level of losses.
The basis of effective enterprise risk management is as follows: identification, qualitative risk analysis, quantitative risk analysis, response planning, monitoring and risk management (Fig. 1).Below will be considered the risk tree, the primary importance of which is the classification of groups by the operation of the enterprise [8][9][10][11].Next, the list of key risks of the enterprise, which describe the structure of construction organizations, is systematized: 1. Risks of a production nature -determined by the implementation of construction and installation works on the basis of a contract agreement between the customer, the general contractor and the contractor.
3. Financial risks -determined by unscheduled excess costs or budget losses in the financial activities of a construction organization.
4. Commercial Risks -Critical to this listing of risks due to unsustainable sales and advertising policies.In such situations, auxiliary unplanned expenses, a shortage of income or losses due to an incorrect course of sale of goods arise.
5. Managerial risks -determined by the loss of the vector of strategy development due to conflict situations between the administration on different levels.
6. Marketing risks -This is characterized by an incorrect definition of the development strategy of the construction enterprise in the market, resulting in additional unforeseen costs.
7. Risks of a social nature -determined by the low level engagement of the construction organization in development of social infrastructure for the safe operation of working personnel.
This study will identify production and management risks arising during the production, transportation and installation of large modules in the design position (Figure 2).To determine potential risks, were analyzed implemented projects, current projects and possible future conditions during the construction of buildings from large modules (Fig. 2).Fig. 2. Algorithm for investigating potentially significant risks.The authors study a large-sized dimensional module, which is produced at the "Combine of Innovative Technologies -MonArch."The plant plans to produce large modules with the following maximum dimensions: length -15.5; width 6.5; height 3.55 [12][13][14].
It is planned to implement projects for various purposes from large modules: public buildings, residential and administrative.The plant produces a large-sized module equipped with all engineering systems, facade systems and finishing equipment.Complete factory readiness is 95%.There are various options for a space-planning solution within a large module.
This method of erecting buildings has a number of advantages compared to the construction of buildings made of cast reinforced concrete or large-panel housing construction in terms of obtaining an economic effect [15][16][17].The main advantages are: -enhanced receiving quality control of components and materials.
-increased quality and accuracy of products, reduction of adverse factors that may affect the products at the construction site; -increased labor productivity; -rational integration of all types of construction works and standardized working processes; -energy efficiency of factory production; -the most labor-intensive processes are carried out with the use of mechanization and robotization due to the transfer of the main production processes to the plant, reducing the labor intensity of work at the construction site.
-reduction of the total environmental load on the construction area, taking into account the fact that the construction site turns into an assembly site; -reduction of the cost of work; -acceleration of the project payback period due to reduction of the building construction period; Research was carried out on the basis of the Combine of Innovative Technologies -MonArch to identify potentially significant risks.The risks were determined at the stage of production, transportation and installation of the large module into the design position.At production site were revealed risks arising at all stages of making of a large module in production conditions.During the study, were considered works on formation of products, assembly of modules, internal facing works, facade works.On the stage of transportation of the large module to the construction site, the factors that significantly affect the quality of the transported large module were analyzed.At the stage of installation of the large module into the design position, risks were identified, the impact of which reduces the quality of finished products, reduces operational properties, and increases the time for commissioning the facility.As a result of the study, it is necessary to describe the following provision: at all stages of production of large modules, risks arise that significantly affect the quality of finished products.The risks are identified in three groups for further qualitative and quantitative analysis, response planning, monitoring and risk management.

Conclusion
The risk management system is part of a comprehensive project management model.Only based on a well-functioning project management system enterprises can implement a strategy for developing large-scale projects.For a long time, the construction sector lagged behind other sectors of the economy in productivity.In modern conditions of economic development and technological progress, there is an opportunity to transform the construction industry, the development of industrial methods of building construction.According to the results of the study, the identified risks are divided into three groups.In further studies, a questionnaire will be compiled and an expert survey will be conducted to identify the most affecting group of risks.

Table 1 .
Risk groups affecting the quality of the large module.