Arctic and North-West Russia forestry industry supply analysis with higher education personnel

. The article is devoted to the study of the supply of the forestry industry in the regions of the Arctic and the North-West of Russia with higher education personnel. It analyzes statistical data from four forms of state federal reporting for 2022. The list of areas of training and specialties of higher education organizations, in which the training of highly qualified personnel for the timber industry is carried out, was determined. A group of economic activities related to the five main areas of the forestry complex was formed. We calculated estimates of the annual additional needs of the forestry complex of the Arctic and Northwest Russia macro-region in personnel with higher education. Based on these data, a comparative analysis of the output of higher education institutions in the areas of training and specialties of the forest industry and the volume of staffing needs of forestry complex organizations in employees with higher education in 15 subjects of this macroregion was conducted. The analysis revealed the subjects, the staffing needs of which can be met by graduates from their region, as well as the subjects that need graduates from other regions to cover the needs.


Introduction
The development and management of the forest industry in the Northwest and the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is a national priority for Russia, focused on the global competitiveness of its timber industry products.In particular, the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is an area of geostrategic interests of Russia, which today plays an important role not only in terms of national security, but also economic [1].In 2020 the most important strategic documents declaring the features of long-term development of the macroregion were adopted [2; 3], the priority of Russia's economic policy in the Arctic becomes the stimulation and intensification of business and investment activity [4].
The forestry complex, as a set of industries that ensure the rational and sustainable use of forest resources, is traditionally part of the structure-forming industries of the regions of the European North of Russia and the adjacent Arctic territories.The «Strategy for the Development of the Forestry Complex of the Russian Federation until 2030» states as one of its objectives «increasing the long-term competitiveness of the forest industry and increasing the contribution of the forestry complex to the socio-economic development of Russia».[5].At the same time, among the problems that hinder the achievement of this goal are the following: the low degree of forest raw material use, which deteriorates the economy of the industry; the limited scale of the domestic market, insufficient for the creation of new industries in isolation from export markets; low investment attractiveness of the industry due to country factors; low level of technical, scientific and human resource support, etc. [6].
This macroregion contains the main part of forest resources of the Russian Federation, the volume of forest industry products in GRP of these regions is a significant part.Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention and attention to the development of the forest industry in this macroregion, including such its important component as staffing.
The system of vocational education must promptly respond to the current and future demands of the labor market and technological changes and prepare in advance the necessary number of personnel with the professions and specialties that are in demand.
The purpose of the article is to present the results of the analysis of personnel training for the forest industry by the educational system of the North-West and the Arctic zone of Russia in order to bring the output of the higher education system in line with the needs of the forest industry of this macroregion.
The results of the study can be used by decision makers in the field of personnel training to improve the balance of labor markets in the regions of the North-West and the Arctic zone of Russia by bringing the output of the higher education system in line with the needs of the forest industry.

Literature review
Determining the need for qualified personnel required for the development of key sectors of the economy is an important element of the analysis of the socio-economic situation of the country at the current moment and for different time horizons.The assessment of the staffing component of the need for stable economic development is usually calculated in two ways: by macroeconomic modeling of the capacity of markets through the parameters characterizing the structure of the economy, employment, etc., or microeconomic way through surveys of employers [7].
This study considers graduates of the system of higher professional education as one of the main resources, which provides qualified personnel for the economic development of the regions of the North-West and the Arctic zone of Russia.The graduation from the system of professional education is carried out in the annual dimension.From the position of management theory, the regional economy objectively needs an annual inflow of human resources, which is an external impact on the socio-economic system.This need for resources should be satisfied in time, so that the economy functioned smoothly.The role of a compensating mechanism for this purpose is played by the vocational education system.The presented management approach is based on the principle that the market of educational services is secondary to the labor market, which itself is secondary to the market of goods and services production [8; 9].Thus, the main function of the vocational education system is to train and release the personnel demanded by the economy to the labor market, which is not always the case.One of the reasons for this is the inertia of the vocational education system, which works according to the principle "from what has been achieved," reproducing from year to year the personnel in those specialties that are in demand mainly among the population, but not necessarily among employers.At the same time, special attention should be paid to the training of personnel with higher education as a very costly training of future employees with the most responsible positions.
In order for the education system to produce the required number of cadres with higher education, it is necessary to use a correct methodology to assess the needs of economic sectors in personnel, both in terms of quantity (volume) of graduates and quality (training direction or specialty).
The scientific basis for the assessment of staffing requirements is the macroeconomic method of forecasting staffing requirements [10; 11], which is based on a systematic approach from the general to the particular, during which there is a consistent decomposition of labor flows of the type "aggregate staffing requirements" → "additional staffing requirements" → "detailing of additional staffing requirements".
Thus, at the first stage of calculating the annual additional demand of industries or types of economic activities for qualified personnel, the total personnel requirement or the average annual number of employees is determined.At the second stage this indicator is structured by the levels of education, taking into account the proportion of the annual renewal of the staff.At the third stage, the annual additional demand for qualified personnel is detailed by educational specialties/training areas or professions in the economy [12].
Mathematical models for assessing current and projected demand for human resources in economic sectors, used in the methodology, were developed within the framework of socio-economic systems modeling methodology, taking into account the best foreign experience (Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor [13; 14], MONASH model of Australia [15; 16], MDM model of Great Britain [17], INFORGE and Ifo models of Germany [18] and other over 10 different foreign models).
Much attention in such models is paid to ensuring that the education received by the workforce meets the requirements of employers.For example, it is widely recognized that workforce development is currently not the exclusive responsibility of employing organizations, and it has become a top priority for higher education institutions [19].The development of curricula is based on the sectoral monitoring of the economy aimed at assessing staffing needs [20], as well as taking into account the adaptation of curricula to the requirements of the labor market [21].
The article [22] presents the Russian experience of forming a list of the most in-demand professions in the economy of the Arctic zone of Russia, taking into account the priorities of regional economic development and various criteria of occupational demand.Publication [23], based on the survey of leading employers in key sectors of the Arctic economy, formed a list of the most in-demand professions, as well as a comparative analysis of 50 professions from this list and specialties/training areas of graduates of the education system of the Arctic regions.
This study will focus on the analysis of staffing of enterprises and organizations of the forestry complex in the macroregion of the North-West and the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.

Materials and methods
The data on the main indicators characterizing the supply of the regions of the Arctic zone and the North-West of the Russian Federation with personnel with higher education for the forestry industry were collected and processed as the information base of the study.The necessary information was obtained from the statistical reporting forms, published on the official websites in the public domain, namely the form № 1-T (prof.)"Information about the number and need of organizations in employees by professional groups"; form № 1-T "Information about the number and wages of employees", form № VPO-1 "Information about the organization carrying out educational activities in higher education programsbachelor programs, specialist programs, master programs" and № ОО-1 "Information about the org The methods of descriptive statistics and comparative analysis of data were used in the study.The Excel spreadsheet processor and SQL Analysis Services Excel Add-In were used as the statistical analysis software [24].

Results and discussion
The macroregion of the North-West and Arctic zone of the Russian Federation includes 15 subjects: Republics of Karelia, Komi and Sakha (Yakutia), Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Kaliningrad, Murmansk, Novgorod, Pskov and Leningrad regions, Krasnoyarsk territory, Chukotka, Nenets and Yamalo-Nenets autonomous districts and federal city -Saint Petersburg.Labor markets of the timber industry complex, especially in the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, have a constant need for personnel.Taking into account the characteristics of the forest industry five main areas of activity have been identified: 1. Logging and development of timber by standard assortments.2. Woodworking.
3. paper and pulp production.4. Chemical processing of wood. 5. Supply of the woodworking industry with machinery and equipment.
To determine the number of employees and staffing requirements for the above directions were selected 19 types of economic activities (hereinafter -TEA) of sections A (Agriculture, Forestry, Hunting, Fishing and Fish farming) and C (Manufacturing) most suitable for the selected areas of the forest industry.As a result 4 foreign economic activities included in general classifier of economic activities (hereinafter -GCEA) «Forestry and felling» of the section A were attributed to the direction 1, 6 foreign economic activities included in GCEA «Wood processing and manufacture of wood and cork products, except furniture, production of articles of straw and plaiting materials» were attributed to the direction 2, to the direction 3 -7 of the TEA included in GCEA «Production of paper and paper products», to the direction 4 -1 TEA of GCEA «Production of other organic basic chemicals», to the direction 5 -1 TEA of GCEA «Production of machinery and equipment for agriculture and forestry» section C.
Table 1 presents the results of the aggregate data on the average number of employees (hereinafter -ANE) in the forest industry for the full range of organizations of the macroregion and Russia as a whole, obtained from the form № 1-T for 2022.From the section «Distribution of the listed number of employees of organizations by professional groups and types of economic activity» and the section «The share of organizations' need for workers to fill vacant jobs in the total number of jobs by professional groups and subjects of the Russian Federation» of Form № 1-T (prof.)were obtained information on the share in the HRR, related to the category of managers or specialists of higher qualifications and the needs in these professional groups.
The data show that the share of the North-West and Arctic macroregion's ANE to the total ANE for Russia in the forestry industry is 26%.The largest number of employees is in the Leningrad and Arkhangelsk regions and Krasnoyarsk territory, together they account for 45.7% of the macroregion's ANE.These regions are also leaders in the number of employees with higher education (hereinafter -HE), their share in the macroregion is 45%.The smallest number of people employed in the forest industry is in the Chukotka and Nenets Autonomous Districts.Figure 1 shows the specific need for employees with higher education in the forestry industry in two sections -in the ANE with higher education and in the total ANE.The presented data show that the need for staff with higher qualifications in the ANE with higher education in Russia as a whole and in the macroregion is 3.78% and 3.54%, respectively.It averages 4.25% in 15 regions, more than 6% in Chukotka and Nenets Autonomous Districts, the lowest value -2.5% in the Arkhangelsk region.The need for employees with HE in the total NSR in Russia and the macroregion is 0.88% and 0.81%.The highest and lowest values are observed in the Nenets Autonomous District (1.54%) and in the Arkhangelsk region (0.54%), the average for the regions is 0.92%.
Thus, in all regions under consideration there is a pronounced need for personnel with higher qualifications.Table 2 presents information in different sections on the admission and graduation of universities in 2022 for the macroregion and Russia as a whole.By expert way 20 directions and specialties from 8 enlarged groups of specialties (hereinafter -EGS), graduates of which have competencies required to work in the forest industry, were selected.The choice was based on the opinions of experts qualified in the industry, as well as research areas of training and specialties of the 12 largest universities in Russia from various regions of the forest industry.All necessary information was obtained from the form № VPO-1 at 01.10.2022, as well as № OO-1 at the beginning of 2022/23 academic year.
Of the total admission, the admission to the EGS related to the forestry industry is 10.4% of the total admission in Russia as a whole and 11.2% in the subjects of the macroregion.In the Nenets and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Districts the admission and graduation in these specialties is not carried out, because in these subjects there are no educational institutions of higher education.In the Chukotka Autonomous District, all enrollment in universities in the specialties of the forest industry, in the Leningrad region there is no enrollment in these specialties.Of the remaining subjects the highest value is in the Vologda region (21%), the lowest -in the Novgorod region (3.8%).The graduation rate for the EGS related to the forest industry, on average in Russia, is 14%, and for the macroregion -18%.These values are higher than for admission.But, taking into account that the admission is 1.14 times higher than the graduation rate, we cannot talk about negative dynamics.
It is worth noting a significant proportion of students in the admission, who received a previous education in another subject of the Russian Federation or a foreign country -32% on average in Russia and 33% in the macroregion.Of the subjects that make up the macroregion, the highest number of newcomers is in St. Petersburg (42.7%) and Novgorod region (39.2%), the lowest -in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (4.8%) and Murmansk region (4.7%).In all subjects, except St. Petersburg, the number of graduates of the 11th grade of the subject, is greater than the actual total admission to higher education institutions.Despite this, a significant percentage of students from other subjects remains in the total admission.This may indicate a high quality of higher education in the subjects under consideration, including in the areas and specialties of the forest industry.

Conclusion
A comparative analysis of the output of higher education institutions in the areas of training and specialties of the forest industry and the volume of staffing needs of forestry organizations in workers with higher education in 15 Russian regions included in the macro-region covering the Northwestern Federal District and the Arctic zone of Russia was conducted.
The study identified 20 areas of training and specialties in which highly qualified personnel are trained for the timber industry.The annual need for personnel with higher qualifications in the average number of employees with higher education in the macroregion is equal to 1165 people, which is 3.54% of the total number of employees with higher education working in the forest industry.A clear shortage of own staff with higher education was revealed in the Leningrad Oblast, Chukotka, Nenets and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District.
In conclusion, it is worth noting that the results of the study can be useful for those who make managerial decisions in the field of personnel training, to improve the balance of labor markets in the regions of the Northwest and the Arctic zone of Russia by bringing the issues of higher education to the needs of the forest industry.

Fig. 1 .
Fig.1.Need for employees with higher education in the forest industry Higher education institutions located on their territories are primarily engaged in the training of highly qualified personnel for the subjects.Table2presents information in different sections on the admission and graduation of universities in 2022 for the macroregion and Russia as a whole.By expert way 20 directions and specialties from 8 enlarged groups of specialties (hereinafter -EGS), graduates of which have competencies required to work in the forest industry, were selected.The choice was based on the opinions of experts qualified in the industry, as well as research areas of training and specialties of the 12 largest universities in Russia from various regions of the forest industry.All necessary information was obtained from the form № VPO-1 at 01.10.2022, as well as № OO-1 at the beginning of 2022/23 academic year.Of the total admission, the admission to the EGS related to the forestry industry is 10.4% of the total admission in Russia as a whole and 11.2% in the subjects of the

Figure 2
Figure2shows the distribution of the need for personnel with higher education for the forestry industry and the actual output by subjects without taking into account graduates who came from other subjects or foreign countries to obtain higher education.All but four of the subjects, in sufficient numbers prepare highly qualified personnel to work in the forest industry.The leader is the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the output of specialists exceeds the need by 40 times.Leningrad region and three autonomous districts -Chukotka, Nenets, and Yamalo-Nenets -have a shortage of cadres with HE.It is interesting that Leningrad region is part of the Northwestern Federal District, Chukotka Autonomous District is part of the Arctic zone of Russia, and Nenets and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District s are part of both the Northwestern Federal District and the Arctic zone of Russia.

Fig. 2 .
Fig.2.Need for employees with higher education in the forest industry It is worth noting that 11 of the 15 subjects of the macroregion of the North-West and Arctic zones of the Russian Federation can independently provide themselves with highly qualified personnel for the forest industry.

Table 1 .
Aggregated data on the average number of employees in the forest industry for the full range of organizations

Table 2 .
Information on the admission and graduation of universities by macroregion subjects in 2022