Sustainable development for international Chinese language education along the belt and road countries in the post-epidemic era: a SWOT-AHP approach

. The purpose of this study is to provide sustainable growth strategies and practical methods to realize the sustainable development of International Chinese language education along the Belt and Road Countries in the Post-Epidemic era. This article consists of a SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) analysis of developing International Chinese language education in Belt and Road Countries. and in-depth interviews with experts in International Chinese language education in China. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is adopted to the finalized and quantified SWOT matrix to incorporate experts’ ideas.The result showed that the total strength and total opportunity of International Chinese language education in Belt and Road Countries are much greater than that of total weakness and total threat, which indicates that the opportunities outweigh threats, and advantage outweigh disadvantage. Therefore, the growth-oriented strategy shall be applied to spur the sustainable development of Belt and Road Countries’ International Chinese language education. In addition, the setbacks should also be taken into serious consideration in order to overcome the weakness and the threat.


Introduction
International Chinese language education has always been a bridge that tightens the connection between China and the countries along the Belt and Road.As the concept of the Belt and Road Initiative gains recognition from more and more countries and the uncertainty caused by COVID-19, it is no doubt that international Chinese language education has also entered a new era that brings both opportunity and challenge.
According to data made public by the Chinese International Education Foundation, by 2022, a total of 204 Confucius Institutes have been established in 65 countries along the Belt and Road ( Table 1 ).Compared with 2008, 66 Confucius Institutes have been newly established in countries along the Belt and Road(.Liu Baocun, 2019).This indicates that international Chinese language education still has great potential and space for development in countries along the Belt and Road.
Quantitative method have been wildly adopted in development assessment and strategy selection.As one of the most commonly used methods, SWOT analysis, also known as situation analysis, in which S refers to strengths; W refers to weaknesses; O refers to opportunities; T refers to threats.Therefore, applying the SWOT strategy research framework to the discussion of the sustainable development of international Chinese language education in countries along the Belt and Road provides a structured perspective and solid theoretical support for this paper.
In addition, to compensate for the lack of objective measurement in SWOT analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was carried out to help divides the research object into quantitative levels, which is of great significance in enhancing the scientific and explanatory nature of the SWOT strategic analysis framework, and is an important supplement to the SWOT strategic analysis method.Therefore, it has great application value to combine SWOT analysis and APH to the assessment of the sustainable development of international Chinese language education in Belt and Road countries.

Literature Review
Since the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020, people's lives have changed dramatically.As a result, many industries have faced new challenges, particularly in the education sector.
According to Wang Zhuli(2020) , the impact of the epidemic on the education sector is irreversible.In the post-epidemic era, with the recurrence of the epidemic, fighting new crowns has become the new normal in people's lives; the permanent impact of the epidemic on people's productive lives will continue to be reflected in the education sector.
Overall, it seems that current research in the field of education in the post-epidemic era is mainly focused on three levels.First, regarding the overall strategic layout of education, Zhong Binglin(2021) believes that the integration between the development of higher education and information technology, as well as the transformation of the education management model are the problems that must be addressed in China's current higher education reform in the post-epidemic era.Liu Yonglin(2021) contends that in the postepidemic era, online education should seize the opportunity of development to promote the optimal allocation of educational resources and the transformation of higher education management.Secondly, many scholars have put forward their researches on the reform and upgrading of education and teaching mode in the post-epidemic era.Qian Dandan et al. (2021) propose using technology to change the traditional teaching model and construct a knowledge transformation model for medical information literacy education in order to enhance the effectiveness of education and teaching.Hu Yang et al. ( 2021) conduct an indepth study on the deviation of the value of teaching order in online education practices during the epidemic and propose a new education system that integrates physical space and cyberspace to establish a better value of education order in the post-epidemic period.Thirdly, in the research on a specific educational field, Li Baogui et al. (2021) pointed out that Chinese international teachers are now facing new challenges under the impact of the epidemic, as well as Chinese international education in China.But the development momentum of international Chinese education is still strong, and the training of international Chinese teachers' information literacy should be actively accelerated to enhance the comprehensive information competence of international Chinese education practitioners.
In summary, although existing research on education in the post-epidemic era has taken shape, two problems remain: firstly, the research methodology is relatively homogeneous, with most existing studies being textual in nature and lacking theoretical and data support; secondly, there are still certain gaps in research on international Chinese language education in the post-epidemic era.

Methods
This study adopted the combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods by using a jointed SWOT-AHP theoretical model to assess the internal and external factors that influence the development of international Chinese language education in the postepidemic era in countries along the Belt and Road.
In this study, Yaahp7.0 software was used in model formulation and calculation.The first step is to obtain the SWOT factors and indexes of the development of international Chinese language education in the Belt and Road countries.In this step, a large amount of secondary literature and a well-designed workshop of experts interview were referenced to ascertain the influential factors in each aspect.
The next step is to weight each factor's importance and set the priority according to the experts' opinions collected in the first step.Saaty's scale in the range of 1-9 was used in this step： a ij -on the scale1-9, to what extent object Xi being compared is preferred to object Xj and aij > 0. When i = j, the values of diagonal elements is 1.
The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was introduced to the third step to prioritize the SWOT factor obtained above.By presenting the result of the pair-wise comparison in square, the matrix A was constructed: After the matrix of each layer was constructed, the single hierarchical arrangement was calculated.
the formulation of the Geometric mean value in each row: the formulation of normalized ω ̅ i can be written as: Then, the consistency of each factor shall be checked.the formulation of largest eigen factor λ max : the formulation of consistency index CI: the formulation of consistency ratio CR: RI -the random index, whose value depends on the dimension of the matrix (n).
The consistency shall passed test when CR <0.1.Finally ,the total strength, total weakness, total opportunity, and the total threat were obtained according to weight.And the strategic decision quadrangle in SWOT was constructed: The final strategic focus was determined according to the formula above.

The SWOT analysis of the sustainable development of international
Chinese language education in the Belt and Road Countries

Strength
Sound policy environment (S1) The policy system has a certain incentive mechanism (Wu Xiaojian,2011), and a sound policy environment has a positive effect on development.International Chinese language education is currently a government-led education program, and a sound policy environment is an important element for its long and healthy development.As of 2022, China and other countries along the Belt and Road have issued a number of cooperation, from the training of teachers to the regulation of relevant institutions, and by formulating and improving relevant policies and systems, China and other countries along the Belt and Road have provided a solid institutional guarantee for the healthy and long-term development of international Chinese language education.
Superior location(S2) The countries along the Belt and Road are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, etc. Geographically, they mostly share borders with China and work closely with China in the field of transportation construction.Regionally, they are mostly located within the radiation circle of Chinese culture and have a stronger sense of affinity and affection for Chinese culture compared with other regions.China and the countries along the Belt and Road are convenient and interconnected in terms of transportation, mutual cultural recognition, and significant geographical advantages, which provide rich soil for the long-term development of international Chinese language education in the region.
Abundant experience(S3) Since the founding of the first Confucius Institutes in 2004, international Chinese language education has achieved milestones and ushered in the peak of its development.By 2022, there will be 567 Confucius Institutes worldwide, with Confucius Institutes in countries along the Belt and Road alone accounting for 36% of the total number of Confucius Institutes worldwide.Especially in Thailand and Russia, the number of Confucius Institutes has reached more than 20.This shows that international Chinese language education in the countries along the Belt and Road has already formed a certain scale and has rich experience in development.
Solid bilateral relationship(S4) Since the Belt and Road was formally put into construction in 2015, China has signed a number of memoranda of understanding with countries along the Belt and Road on the basis of bilateral relations.In particular, since the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020, China has provided a large amount of timely relief in terms of materials and medical care to countries along the Belt and Road, resulting in closer bilateral relations, higher political mutual trust and closer economic collaboration, creating the possibility for the long-term stable development of international Chinese language education and the economies of countries along the Belt and Road.

Weakness
Uneven development (W1) As an educational institution for international Chinese language education, Confucius Institutes have played an important role in international Chinese language education and as well as an important way to carry out international Chinese language education practices.However, in terms of the number of institutions, nearly 14% of the 65 countries along the Belt and Road still do not have Confucius Institutes, and the development of international Chinese language education is lagging behind.In terms of spatial layout, Confucius Institutes are mainly concentrated in relatively developed regions such as Thailand and Russia, while the construction of Confucius Institutes in regions with large population bases, close bilateral economic cooperation, and greater market demand for international Chinese language education, such as Vietnam, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia, is still in short supply.
Disconnect with the market demand (W2) At present, the Confucius Institute and the Confucius Class are still teaching mainly in a utilitarian manner oriented to the HSK level examination.The training of professional and vocational talents is still insufficient.In terms of teaching materials, the Chinese language teaching materials compiled in China are not well adapted to the needs of international Chinese language teaching outside of China (Lu Jianming，2022) ; in terms of E3S Web of Conferences 420, 10026 (2023) https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202342010026EBWFF 2023 curriculum, it is mostly based on the accumulation of knowledge output and lacks the ability to develop the application of the language in the actual workplace.This is not in line with the burgeoning market demand for professional Chinese translators in various countries since the Belt and Road Initiative was launched.
Faculty deficiency (W3) The shortage of international Chinese language education faculty is mainly reflected in two aspects.The first is quality.In the post-epidemic era, duel mode teaching, which is based on online teaching will become a trend, and online teaching will become the main way for international Chinese language education in the future, however, the training of international Chinese language teachers' information literacy in China has not yet become systematic.Secondly, in terms of quantity, although China sends out a large number of volunteers every year to participate in international Chinese language education activities overseas; the training of overseas Chinese language teachers has been in a relatively insufficient state of affairs.
Insufficient industrial development (W4) The industrial development of international Chinese language education is still mainly policy-oriented.Most of the funding for international Chinese language education activities comes from official foundations or donations from other social sources.Compared to other foreign languages such as English and Japanese, the international Chinese language education industry has a weaker commercial transformation capacity and a longer cycle, and the value added of the industry is smaller, and the industry chain still needs to be developed and improved.

Opportunity
Coordinated with the mainstream of the educational reform (O1) Deepening the development of international Chinese language education and training professional foreign language talents is one of the important elements of education reform in countries along the Belt and Road.For example, Pakistan's Higher Education Vision 2025 clearly states that higher education needs to cultivate more senior talents with professional training and vocational guidance who can contribute to the economic development of the region [13] , and the Malaysian General Education Council's "Blueprint for Chinese Independent Secondary Education in Malaysia" also proposes to keep the Chinese language curriculum up-to-date to meet the development trends of countries around the world (Wu Ruixin, 2022) , all of which coordinate with the "International Chinese Language Education + 'X'" concept of talent training in the post-epidemic era.
High-level attention from authorities (O2) The development of international Chinese language education has always been highly valued by the governments of China as well as the countries along the Belt and Road, and the officials of both sides have held many consultations on problems related to the development of international Chinese language education in their countries, and have visited and delivered speeches at local Confucius Institutes on many occasions.The Indonesian Minister to China, Dino, has praised "the positive role of Confucius Institutes as a bridge between education and culture."He also said that he "looks forward to seeing Confucius Institutes in various countries, including Indonesia, become an important tool for cultural exchange and Chinese language learning between China and abroad, as well as serving economic and social development." Abundant market demand(O3) With the development of infrastructure projects along the Belt and Road, bilateral trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road has also expanded dramatically.As of June 2022, China's trade in goods with countries along the Belt and Road is close to US$12 trillion, and non-financial direct investment in countries along the route exceeds US$140 billion.In the post-epidemic era, as bilateral trade still growing steadily, international Chinese language education fits the demand for professional Chinese language translators language to maintain the long-term growth of bilateral trade.
Promoted by the Belt and Road Initiative(O4) The Belt and Road Initiative is a new type of concept put forward by China in light of the new development situation.The concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, as the spiritual core of the Belt and Road Initiative, which offers a new possibility of win-win cooperation between countries and nations.It has shown the world, especially the countries along the Belt and Road, the friendly and amiable gesture of China.The Belt and Road Initiative has promoted bilateral friendship and enhanced the goodwill of the people in countries along the route towards China, and has created a solid external foundation for the future promotion of international Chinese language education in the countries along the route.

Social instability (T1)
The social security risk index is high and social security issues are prominent in regions along the Belt and Road (Jin Gaofeng, 2019) .In April 2022, the Confucius Institute at the University of Karachi in Pakistan was hit by a terrorist attack that killed several people.In the post-epidemic era the time spent on internet have been generally increased, which also provided terrorists with more opportunities to recruit their member and radicalized the social issue (Jin Xiaozhe, 2022).New types of terrorism, radicalisation and other new regional security threats will exacerbate security problems along the Belt and Road, which brings uncertainty to the daily teaching tasks, and threats the personal safety of the faculty.
Complex ethnic issues (T2) Due to historical background, the relationship between national interest groups in many places along the Belt and Road is complex.International Chinese language education along the Belt and Road is intended to promote exchanges and cooperation among countries in various aspects such as culture, education, economy, and trade, but because of the complexity of ethnic groups and beliefs along the Belt and Road, ethnic, religious and local group interests are often hostage to the political decisions of the top management of the regions along the Belt and Road ( (Lv Chao, 2018), nationalist sentiments will have a certain degree of negative impact on the further development of international Chinese language education cause.
Recurrent outbreaks of COVID-19 (T3) The epidemic has had a considerable impact on the countries along the Belt and Road.Firstly, in terms of the economic perspective, the recurrence of the epidemic has led to economic weakness in Belt and Road countries, resulting in a currency devaluation and escalating debt pressure; secondly, the continuous mutation of the virulent strain and its increased infectivity have increased the pressure to governments in epidemic control and the instability of social public health security, which has had a negative impact on the local construction of international Chinese language education as well as offline teaching.
Competitive pressures from other language institutions (T4) After the COVID-19 pandemic, the global situation has been reshuffled and all powers are seeking different ways to enhance their national soft power and global competitiveness.The Cultural Council in London, the French Association in France, the Goethe Institute in Germany, the Cervantes Institute in France, and the Russian Language Institute in the Russian Federation are all making their own efforts to effectively promote their own cultural propaganda and increase their overseas voices.
Base on the factors discussed above, the SWOT factors for development of International Chinese language education along the Belt and Road is formulated (Table2).Among which, strength and weakness stand for internal factor, whereas opportunity and threat stand for external.Competitive pressures from other language institutions

AHP-SWOT data analysis of the sustainable development of international Chinese language education in the Belt and Road Countries
According to the SWOT factors of development of International Chinese language education along the Belt and Road, the hierarchy structure model was constructed.
The AHP model of International Chinese language education's development along the Belt and Road countries includes three layers: objective layer, factor layer and index layer.Based on the SWOT factors discussed above, the factor layer consisted of four factors: strength, weakness, opportunity and threat.And the index layer consisted of 16 factors (Table 3).Based on the the formulation ( 1)-( 8) the total weight, largest eigen factor, CR as well as the priority of each factors in each layer are presented in the Table 4.According to Table 4, the C.R. values of each layer were calculated to be less than 0.1, which passed the consistency test.

Table3. AHP model of sustainable development of international
Based on further observation, in Table 4, the weights of Strengths (S), Weaknesses (W), Opportunities (O) and Threats (T) for the sustainable development strategy of international Chinese language education are 0.3180, 0.0971, 0.4522 and 0.1327 respectively.Thus indicates that there is more opportunity and greater strength to develop international Chinese language education in the Belt and Road Countries in a sustainable approach.What's more, external conditions play a significant role in the continued healthy growth of overseas Chinese language talents along the Belt and Road, followed closely by internal strengths.In addition, the weights of O3(0.2185),S1(0.1220),S4(0.1184) and O4(0.1033) are higher than 0.1, which have prior influence to the sustainable development of international Chinese language education in the Belt and Road Countries.

Strategic position
In order to make a scientific suggestion to boost the sustainable development of international Chinese language education in the Belt and Road Countries, a strategic position point was introduce to identify the specific strategy that can be adopted in this study.There are four strategies corresponding to different cross combinations of internal and external factors in SWOT.They were respectively SO (growth-oriented strategy), ST (diversified business strategy), WO(reverse-type strategy), WT(defensive-type strategy).
According to the formulation(8), P= (0.055225, 0.079875).The P point was located in the first quadrant.Therefore, the growth-oriented strategy which combined the external opportunities and its own advantages should be adopted in the sustainable development of international Chinese language education in the Belt and Road Countries.International Chinese language education in the Belt and Road countries is an opportunity industry, and that a pioneering strategy should be adopted at this stage in order to facilitate its sustainable and healthy growth.

Conclusion and policy implications
This study adopted SWOT-AHP method to assess the sustainable development of international Chinese language education in the Belt and Road Countries in the postepidemic era to make sure the analysis is more quantified and results are more visible and reliable.
This study has conducted an exploratory analysis of the influencing factors and types of strategies that affect the development of international Chinese language education in countries along the Belt and Road in the post-epidemic era.
Based on the above findings, this paper proposes the following feasible for the sustainable development of international Chinese language education in countries along the Belt and Road in the post-epidemic era: Firstly, promote the integration of teaching and vocational training in international Chinese language education.The cultivation of practical talents should be enhanced, by using the market as a vane, the combination of language learning and its application should be infusion into the curriculum.
Secondly, promote the localisation of international Chinese language education.Avoid a uniform "assembly line" approach during the Chinese language education practice.Encouraging each region to develop international Chinese language teaching materials with its local characteristics , as well as local faculty training.
Thirdly, vigorously develop online international Chinese language education.Further integrate the quality of international Chinese language education teachers and launch high- quality international Chinese language education online courses.Take the initiative to grasp the development direction of dual-track education on and offline in the post-epidemic era.
To sum up, the Belt and Road Initiative is an advantage for the development of international Chinese language education in countries along its route.The senior management of both sides should seize its opportunity to include the sustainable and healthy development of international Chinese language education in important strategic planning, giving full play to the role of education in promoting the cultural, economic and social development of both sides; and improving the service role of international Chinese language education for the construction of the Belt and Road.

Table 1 :
Number of Confucius Institutes in countries along the Belt and Road Source:Collected by the author based on information from the website of the China International Chinese Language Education Foundation.[2022-9-8].https://www.cief.org.cn.
Chinese language education in the Belt and Road Countries

Table 4 .
AHP-SWOT data of sustainable development of international Chinese language education in the Belt and Road Countries