Developer status assessment based on its aggregate capacity estimation

. Investment and construction activity development entailed not only the improvement of existing systems and approaches to the assessment of the state of participants of this process, but also the emergence of new areas of analysis based on a comprehensive space-oriented structure of both the project itself and its environment. The methods of the complex estimation of the investment and construction project condition which takes into account not only the design risk and the stage of the project realisation but also the financial and economic condition of the participants of the investment and construction activity, first of all the developer. The estimation of financial and economic conditions of the developer is suggested to be carried out on the ground of aggregate potential that characterises the possibilities to achieve the objectives set before the enterprise and solve the current problems taking into account resource constraints and factors of the internal and external environment. Consideration of the aggregate potential of the enterprise as a complex multilevel system that covers all subsystems and organisational and technological processes, allows developing a comprehensive and objective assessment of the financial and economic condition of the developer that allows identifying reserves to further improve the efficiency of its activities.


Introduction
The scientific literature currently presents a fairly extensive amount of research related to the risk assessment of investment projects, both from the point of view of the participants in the investment and construction activity, and from the position of the project life cycle, its sectoral focus, and other criteria [1 -9].But despite the large number of works in this area, due to changes in the organizational and legal conditions of investment and construction activities, the transition to project financing, changes in the relations of the main construction participants, there is a need to develop methodological approaches to the assessment of project risks, which were considered in detail by the authors in previous papers on assessing its aggregate potential [10,11].

Materials and methods
The most common and traditional methods for assessing the potential of enterprises in modern scientific and academic literature are: methods for assessing the market value of an enterprise, the methodology for comprehensive rating assessment of potential, and the methodology for assessing the financial performance of an enterprise.In all traditional methods, the evaluation is carried out using the actual values of indicators that characterise the performance of the economic system.An overview of the methods is provided in Table 1.
Based only on traditional methods of potential assessment, it is impossible to make a full assessment and form a total potential of an enterprise.Since they do not reveal the prospective (unused reserves) potential of the analysed enterprise.However, modern methods of assessing the potential of an enterprise aim to determine the prospective potential of an enterprise by comparing the actual potential to the possible attainable level of the potential of a particular enterprise.

Table 1.
Traditional methods for assessing the potential of an enterprise.

Method name Essence of the method
Methods for assessing the market value of a company Cost (property) method.The valuation of an enterprise's potential on the basis of the amount of its expenses for its formation and use; Comparative (market) method.Evaluation of the potential of the enterprise in comparison with peers; Income method.Assessment of the potential based on the amount of net cash flow.

Comprehensive rating methodology
Analysis of financial and economic activities of the enterprise by indicators characterising the financial condition and financial results of the enterprise; Calculation of the final rating indicator based on the comparison of an enterprise with a notional benchmark enterprise.

Methodology for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise
The potential of an enterprise is analysed in terms of an assessment of its property and financial potential.
Modern methods for assessing the potential of an enterprise are based on the identification of individual potentials, and the structural components (indicators) are defined differently by all authors [12].The list of modern methods and private potentials is presented in Table 2.

Results
At each stage of the life cycle, an enterprise may have the same set of particular potentials and in order to operate as efficiently as possible, it is best to use all the capabilities (i.e. to unlock all the potential of the enterprise) at all stages of the life cycle, but if this is not possible (due to environmental factors), then emphasis should be placed on the most important particular potentials in a particular stage of the life cycle -those without which it is impossible to exist in the market and difficult to compete in a modernised economy But this set can vary according to the specific characteristics of the enterprise.
Whatever methods are used to assess the potential of the enterprise, according to the authors, it is necessary to take into account the threats (risks).The calculation algorithm proposed by the authors [8] in a previously published paper can be refined to take into account the value of the developer's potential.Assessing enterprise capacity through financial indicators using a system of inequalities based on the "golden rule of economics"

Financial Economic Industrial
Assessment of the use of the enterprise's potential is based on the algorithm of structural-targeted analysis and the system of calculation of structural coefficients of economic activity.The evaluation of the effectiveness of the use of potential is carried out by comparing the actually achieved values of the enterprise's indicators with their potential values The total risk indicator of a project, taking into account its financial and economic status (Rcorrect), as the ratio of the total risk of the project (Rtotal) to the overall integral coefficient of financial viability of the project (KF).
The use of the coefficient analysis method has found wide application not only in the practice of assessing the financial condition of the enterprise and predicting the probability of bankruptcy, but also in assessing the financial feasibility of projects, comparing them with each other when choosing alternative solutions.In addition, the project must ensure financial sustainability and an acceptable rate of return on invested capital throughout its implementation period.One can agree with those authors who believe that the information obtained by this method is illustrative and abstracted from the specifics of real projects [13][14][15].But the value of financial ratios consists primarily in a standardized algorithm of calculations and the possibility of their use as a target function for certain combinations of given input parameters.It is on the basis of these features of financial ratios that a comprehensive integral coefficient of financial soundness of the project, presented in the form of a multiplicative model, was developed: here Кstand iis the standardised value of the i-th financial ratio; n is the number of ratios involved in the calculation.
There are quite a few different ratios that can be used to assess the financial health of a project.However, we are primarily interested in those that determine its sustainability in the long term, its ability to repay its term liabilities, as well as characterising the efficiency of investment use and ensuring a given level of profitability.We will group and present the coefficients according to these categories, which will be further used in the formation of the integral coefficient of financial solvency of the project.The grouped ratios are presented in Table 3.  3: PE -net profit; A -total assets; ICinvested capital (equity + long-term liabilities); SC -equity; VR -sales proceeds; AAcurrent assets; KO -short-term liabilities; DS -cash; WB -balance sheet currency; SOSown current assets; VA -non-current assets.
The presented financial ratios reflect all areas of the financial condition of the project and can give an objective assessment for the analysis of its financial feasibility.Projects with high level of financial stability, sufficient liquidity and solvency, and profitability have high chances for successful implementation and preferential terms of lending by the bank.This in turn helps to reduce the risk of the project as a whole and its attractiveness to potential buyers and investors.
As the coefficients included in the model are unidirectional, the product of standardised coefficients greater than 1 indicates a satisfactory financial and economic condition of the project.A Kstand coefficient value greater than 1 indicates that the actual coefficient value exceeds the recommended value.
Then the aggregate potential of the developer is calculated and the project risk is adjusted to the developer's potential: here П is an integral value of the developer's capacity.
here аweight value; p -quantification of each type of aggregate potential; n -number of types of aggregate potential.
Developers are currently operating in a high-risk environment due to decreased demand for housing due to low purchasing power of the population, increased mortgage interest rates, reduced preferential lending programmes, general economic turbulence and uncertainty.Smaller regional developers are more exposed to the risk of financial insolvency due to a small margin of financial strength.
This places additional demands on the financial component of the overall capacity of the developer in terms of financial sustainability.In this connection, it is advisable to take into account, when assessing the financial component of the aggregate potential, the developer's regulatory indicators, the procedure for calculating which is established by the Regulation on the Developer's Financial Stability Ratios pursuant to Government Decree No. 1683 of 26 December 2018: -the ratio of security of liabilities determined by dividing the amount of the developer's assets by the amount of the developer's liabilities under the contracts of participation in shared construction ( at least 1); -the target utilization ratio determined by dividing the amount of the developer's assets not related to construction by the amount of the developer's net assets and the total amount of its liabilities reduced by the amount of liabilities under the shared construction contracts (at least 1); -the standard amount of the builder's equity.In addition, according to the authors, the builder's potential should be calculated based on the indicator of loan funds security as the ratio of the amount of funds in the escrow account to the balance of loan funds.

Conclusions
Based on the study, it can be concluded that: -to increase the aggregate potential of an enterprise it is necessary to take an integrated approach to the process of managing its components in order to achieve a synergistic effect; -the category of "potential" unites different types of particular types of potentials existing in an enterprise and forming one complex system, the elements of which have heterogeneous relations with each other; -in order to identify reliable and objective values of the potential of an enterprise it is necessary to pay special attention to the risks that limit the activities of the enterprise at the regional and sectoral levels.

Table 2 .
Modern methods for assessing the potential of an enterprise.

Table 3 .
Project financial status indicators.