Issues of econometric modeling and forecasting of sustainable development of agribusiness subjects

. In the scientific research conducted today, special attention is paid to the study of theoretical and methodological problems related to the sustainable economic development of agribusiness entities in developing countries and to the development of new approaches. In order to further increase the volume of production of agribusiness entities in Uzbekistan, special attention is being paid to attracting more farms to the sector and significantly expanding the participation of the private sector. This article describes the prospects for the development of agribusiness entities in the agriculture of our country, and the sustainable economic development of farms, which are considered its main and leading links.


Introduction
The current level of development of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan is related to the process of establishing socio-economic relations in the market economy, in which small business is one of the main factors affecting the improvement of the material and moral wellbeing of society members.Small business activities should serve the interests of all people.This is particularly important in solving the food problem and ensuring the employment of the country's population in the ongoing reforms related to the improvement of the activities of economic entities.
In the conditions of current globalization, the development of the country's economy and especially the rapid recovery of the economy in any emergency situation is reflected in the business activity of small business entities.The need to form entrepreneurship as a new organizational and economic structure in the village is explained by reducing interruptions in inter-sectoral relations, testing livestock and other agro-industrial complexes in the period of reforms.
As a result of fundamental economic changes, entrepreneurial activities are being organized in agriculture in order to regulate socio-economic processes in rural areas, reduce the level of state intervention in the production of meat, milk and consumer products, ensure employment, increase the seasonality of agricultural production, and reduce the bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises.To a large extent, this is reflected in the reduction of state intervention in the activities of agricultural enterprises and the establishment of farms, which are one of the main sources of attracting private capital investments.

Research methodology
The research aims to determine the factors influencing the sustainable development of farms, which are considered the leading link of agriculture, especially agribusiness, to study the experience of foreign countries on the sustainable economic development of farms, to examine the socioeconomic effects of farm economic growth and its effects on ecological balance, the main aspects of the sustainable economic development of farms it is envisaged to define the directions and scientifically justify, to develop the ways of employing governmental, institutional, and judicial systems.

Analysis and results
The form of entrepreneurial activity in agriculture is manifested in the form of agribusiness.Agribusiness is a branch of the market economy related to agricultural production and deep processing, sale, storage, and distribution of its products.
According to the founders of the agribusiness theory, John Davis and Ray Goldberg, agribusiness is a set of processes for providing agriculture with resources, production on farms, processing of agricultural raw materials, and sale and storage of consumer goods obtained from them in order to maximize income.
Russian scientist A.A.Pereletov said: "Agribusiness is the basis for the formation of a reasonable structure of the local economy and its financing, taking into account the characteristics of a certain sector.Despite the fact that each sector that forms the basis of agribusiness and each economic entity included in these sectors has its own resource structure, specialization, location and technology, the problems that arise in them require different levels of solutions.Agribusiness is an important element of any country's economic system.Agribusiness includes not only the process of agricultural production, but also its processing, storage and transportation, as well as the production of agricultural machinery and fertilizers".
In our opinion, it is appropriate to define that "Agribusiness is a unique system that coordinates the organization of production and service on the basis of providing agriculture with the necessary resources".
In terms of structure and purpose, agribusiness mainly corresponds to the agro-industry complex.Briefly, agribusiness covers all the links of the agro-industrial complex created as a result of the integration of agro-industry.The purpose of agribusiness activities is to profit by continuously supplying the consumer market with sufficient quality agricultural products and the industry with raw materials.The main form and primary link of agribusiness are farmers and peasant farms.
Because they manufacture agricultural products directly.The farmer and his family serve as the owner and producers of these farms, which operate on their own or leased land.In some circumstances, hired labour is also an option.
As a result of the measures implemented in Uzbekistan, especially in the Namangan region, for the sustainable innovative development and comprehensive support of agribusiness entities, their place and share in the economy is increasing year by year.
Based on its geographic position and current circumstances, the Namangan region has favourable chances for the growth of private enterprise in general and agribusiness in particular.
If we pay attention to the numbers, the structure of production of agricultural products in Namangan region looks like this (Table 1).Generally speaking, the quick growth of agribusiness is a crucial strategic task of sustainable economic development, the key component in the formation of the nation's gross domestic product, the source of employment and income for the populace, and one of the key elements in ensuring national well-being.
According to the analysis, agribusiness activity is one of the means of realizing initiative, entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship and property ownership skills in people.The formation of the middle class of owners, the prevention of the deterioration of the economic situation of the population also depends on the level of development of this sector of the economy.
In order to determine the importance of agribusiness entities in the agriculture of Namangan region, it is appropriate to calculate the impact of investments in fixed capital for the purpose of population employment and development of the sector, as well as their effectiveness.For this purpose, the econometric model of the gross agricultural product produced by the farms -GNP, the number of jobs in the network -TBS and investments in fixed capital -AKI can be determined in the Eviews program.First, the degree of correlation of the selected factors is determined (Table 2).Determining the regression equation between the resulting and influencing factors and checking the significance of the parameters using the t-Student test and the regression equation based on the Fisher criteria, whether there is autocorrelation based on the Darbin-Watson values, and the adequacy and reliability of the model determined by a number of Akaike Schwarz and Hannan-Quinn criteria is suitable for the purpose, for this, first of all, since the indicators of the selected factors are in different units, we logarithm each factor and create a regression equation table (Table 3).Based on the information found in the table, since tjad=2.1604at df=13 when a=0.05, the number of items in the network -TBS (tTBS=-1.786)tjad>this condition results in insignificance.Moreover, it is desirable to check the parameters of the equation according to the criteria MARE<10 and TIC<1.According to the test results, the parameters are significant under the condition MARE=9.316<10 and TIC=0.05<1.According to α=0.05, k1=13 and k2=2 equal to Fjad=19.42,Fhis=58.47>Fjad,equation (2.1) is significant and DW=1.87≤2 is adequate: the equation is significant and reliable and adequate.Of course, in order to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the calculation of the logarithmic equation, it is desirable to exponentiate the regression equation (2.1), according to which, equation (2.1) will have an appearance.If we interpret the equation (2.1*) economically, the studies show that if we take into account the saturation of the demand for labor in farms in the Namangan region, if the number of jobs in the network is reduced by one thousand units based on the model, the income of farms will be an additional 3.4 billion increase to soums and the volume of investments in fixed capital to 1 bln.due to the increase of soums, the gross output of farms will increase by 5.9 bln. it was determined that it will increase to soums.In the current globalization environment, food security, population growth, and shrinking arable land, in turn, require the development of sustainable intensive farming activities to increase soil fertility and water efficiency, and maintain ecosystem services in order to maintain high yields, the volume of gross agricultural products developed by farms -the land area with good (clean) land reclamation conditions for the change of YFXM -TEM, saline land area -ShEM, land productivity determined on the basis of reports of 150 farms -land use and water consumption -according to Ss we think it is appropriate to determine the effect of the specified values.For this, we will use the analysis process of dynamic changes in 2010-2022 and check the correlation between the initially selected factors and the resulting factor and factors (Table 4).According to the results of the table, in relation to the resulting factor, the clean crop area of the selected farms (rYT=0.7444),increasing land productivity (rYU=0.9236) in high density is correct and saline land area (rYS=-0.80214),water use consumption (rYS=-0.92424) is inversely strongly correlated.Also, there is no multicollinearity in the relationship between the selected land area with good (clean) reclamation condition -TEM, saline land area -ShEM, land productivity -YerU and water use cost -Ss.Continuing the process, it is necessary to check the regression equation based on the criteria, and we can see the results of this check in Table 5 below.According to the table data, all parameters except YerU parameter are insignificant because tjad=2.201 in df=11 when α=0.05.Therefore, it is appropriate to check the significance of these parameters according to the criteria MARE<10 and TIC<1 (Fig. 1).According to the test results, MARE=0.73<10 and TIC=0.0049<1mean that all the parameters are significant.According to α=0.05, k1=11 and k2=4 equal to Fjad=5.9358 and Fhis=268.37and DW=1.975≤2 the equation is significant and reliable and adequate.If we give an economic explanation to this (2.2*)-regressionequation, according to this model, increasing the area of clean land by one thousand hectares will increase the gross output of farms by 88.3 mln.leads to an increase of soum.Also, if land productivity is increased by 1 ha/centenary, the gross output of farms will increase by 224.7 mln.may increase to soums.
Based on the results of the determined model, it should be noted that at present it is necessary to improve the water consumption in farms and the reclamation of saline land.69.8 mln. it was found that it can be increased to soum.
Currently, it has been determined that the water consumption in the farms of Namangan region is being wasted, and an increase of 1,000 cubic meters will cause a 3.5 times decrease in the gross yield of the farms.Based on the results obtained in the study (together with the above-mentioned econometric model (2.1*)), it can be generally concluded that increasing the number of jobs in the network, investments in fixed capital, improving land reclamation, increasing their productivity, and saving water consumption and reducing the area of saline land it is possible to increase the volume of products produced by farms.
Of course, in addition to the tasks to be performed on the sustainable management of these identified farms, the delivery of the produced products to their consumers is also important.In this sense, 39.4 mln.under the agricultural development program based on the order of the Agency for Structural Restructuring of Agricultural Enterprises under the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the financial support of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).The US dollar allocation is aimed mainly at improving the livelihoods of rural people by helping smallholder dairy farms improve their productivity and competitiveness, connect with commercial farmers and access markets.
This, in turn, requires farms to improve economic cooperation relations and further strengthen their relations with neighboring farms.
Based on the ideas presented in the study, we will forecast the expected results from the consistent implementation of the indicated tasks and suggestions based on two scenarios.First of all, based on the above-mentioned econometric model (2.1), the change over time of each of the selected factors is determined by the econometric model determined by the effect of the gross agricultural product produced by the farms -the GDP, the number of jobs in the industry -TBS and investments in fixed capital -AKI forecasting is carried out using a system of models: The number of items in the network − TBS=-87.4+30.9*t;Capital investment − AKI=-50.5+32.9*t.According to the table, in 2026, 594.2 thousand people will be employed in the farms of Namangan region and 675.1 billion.5248.8 billion soums of farm production due to attracting investments it is expected to reach soum.
Moreover, agreeing to the moment situation, the alter within the volume of cultivate items decided by the relationship between the arrive range with great (clean) arrive recovery -TEM, saline arrive region -ShEM, arrive efficiency -YerU and water utilization -SUF is carried out utilizing the taking after demonstrate framework: Using the above, the forecast for the 2nd scenario is carried out, and by determining the results obtained from both scenarios, it is possible to develop proposals and recommendations for the sustainable economic development of farms based on the final conclusion (Table 7).Based on the data displayed within the table for the 2nd situation, by 2026, due to the lessening of water utilization and the area of saline arrive, that's , break even with to 729.0 million m3 and 60.0 thousand hectares, individually, which can reduce the clean trim region of ranches by almost 3% ha and is anticipated to extend the volume of cultivate items by 2 times due to the increment of arrive efficiency by approximately 8%.

Conclusion
Based on the foregoing:  The arrangement of different shapes of possession within the economy, counting the characteristics of agrarian generation, the laws of advancement of an entrepreneurial movement, the want of makers to illustrate opportunity of administration, private intrigued, and activity are the objective premise for unused shapes of administration in agribusiness.The showcase economy serves as the premise for the organization of cultivate exercises, which is one of the foremost successful shapes of administration.The most reason of evaluating the execution of ranches ought to be not as it were to evaluate the adequacy of these ranches, but moreover to define viable roadmaps and openings to guarantee their financial maintainability. Tackling territorial issues at the republican and sectoral levels for sustainable advancement of farming, subjective change of labor and financial relations to realize financial advancement, interregional, interdistrict integration of fabric and common assets, reliable utilize of advanced strategies and advances of administration based on the framework can as it were be accomplished. The work on the advancement and productivity of farming in Namangan locale is bearing natural product.Based on the comes about of an econometric examination of sustainable economic advancement of ranches within the ponder, given the current immersion of labor request in ranches within the Namangan locale, agreeing to the demonstrate, on the off chance that the number of employments within the industry is decreased by one thousand units, cultivate salary will increment by 3.4 billion.soms and increment the volume of investments in settled resources by 1 billion soms.By expanding the volume of net yield of ranches by another 5.9 billion soms. Concurring to the demonstrate found within the ponder, an increment within the region of clean arrive per thousand hectares will increment the net rural yield to 88.3 million hectares soms.Moreover, on the off chance that the efficiency of the arrive increments by 1 ha / c, the net yield of ranches will increment by another 224.7 million soms.Based on the comes about of the distinguished demonstrate, it ought to be famous that right now, it is fundamental to make strides water utilization and recovery of saline lands, and in the event that water utilization is diminished by one thousand cubic meters, the net abdicate of ranches will increment by 42.3 billion soms, in the event that the diminishment of saline lands by one thousand hectares is accomplished, the net gather will increment by 69.8 billion soms. Looking at the comes about of both scenarios, it is presently suggested to extend the share of work and venture in settled resources in situation 1 for the feasible financial improvement of ranches, which, in turn, will quicken the level of advancement.Be that as it may, it ought to be famous that to guarantee maintainable advancement, of course, it is prudent to reliably execute the proposition and proposals given in situation 2. 

Table 2 .
Correlation between the volume of products produced by farms and the factors affecting itAccording to the table, the effects of both selected factors (rYFXM,TBS=0.9023)and (rYFXM,AKI=0.979)on the volume of gross agricultural products produced by farms -YQXM are closely connected and between them rTA≤0.8 it was determined that there was no multicollinearity according to the condition (rTBS,AKI=0.7409).

Table 3 .
Egression equation of the volume of products produced by farms and its evaluation table

Table 4 .
Correlation coefficient of selected factors

Table 5 .
Results of regression equation (2.2*) based on criteria

Table 6 .
Scenario 1 (in terms of the number of points in the network and the impact of capital investments) forecast

Table 7 .
Scenario 2 (on the effect of clean land area, saline land area, productivity, and water consumption) forecast