Scenarios for the development of regional production and economic systems based on industrial parks

. The article presents the results of research on the formation of strategic alternatives for the development of regional production and economic systems in industrial parks within the framework of the internal rating management mechanism. A generalized scheme of cognitive modeling is proposed, which is based on the synthesis of methods of cognitive analysis, principal components, expert analysis, econometric modeling, which makes it possible to increase the validity of the concepts of the cognitive model and scenarios for the development of regional production and economic systems in the system of industrial parks. The presented cognitive model makes it possible to develop scenarios for the implementation of strategic alternatives for the development of regional production and economic systems, evaluate their effectiveness, and choose the most appropriate development strategy for the current situation, ensuring their sustainable functioning in the system of industrial parks. Basic and alternative scenarios have been developed using the example of a regional production and economic system representative of a cluster of companies with crisis development, making it possible to identify the components of the development strategy that require adaptation to ensure the transition of the regional production and economic system representative to a higher cluster. Research data can be used by interested stakeholders: industrial parks, regional production and economic systems, regional authorities.


Introduction
The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for the formation of strategic alternatives for the development of RPES within the framework of spatial rating assessment of the efficiency of their activities in the system of functioning of industrial parks.
The authors' analysis has shown an unbalanced percentage distribution of industrial parks (IP) by the level of efficiency of functioning and development of regional production and economic systems (RPES) in clusters of IP of different type: developed IP of the "brownfield" category; developing IP of the "brownfield" category; developed IP of the "greenfield" category; developing IP of the "greenfield" category.In general, it should be noted that the relatively low share of industrial parks with a high level of RPES performance in their system is relatively low, which indicates that the actual rate of capacity expansion by industrial parks does not correspond to the target rate, allowing to consider IP as a sustainable impetus for the formation of logistics chains of high value-added production and industrial zones of accelerated growth.The current situation indicates certain problems both in the sphere of design and management of IP development, ensuring sustainable functioning of RPES in the IP system, which actualises the issues of developing adequate mechanisms for managing the development of RPES in the IP system in order to make effective management decisions.

Materials and methods
An important element of the cognitive approach is the selection of target factors that should be reflected in the cognitive model.To solve this task, methods of expert analysis are traditionally used.In the study, the authors used a combined approach, which takes into account both expert and statistical information on the efficiency of RPES functioning in the IP system, complementing the results of expert evaluation.
The method of principal components was used to filter the system of target indicators when building a cognitive model of RPES development in the IP system of different types [1].The procedure of filtering the target indicators of RPES development includes: construction of the system of principal components; determination of the minimum necessary number of principal components; evaluation of informativeness and selection of the most significant target factors.
The cognitive model built taking into account the selected factors is the basis for developing scenarios of RPES development in the system of IP functioning [2].

Data and primary analysis
Implementation of the tasks of building a cognitive model is carried out on the data of LLC "PALLADIO OBNINSK" (part of the industrial park "Obninsk"), since the functioning of this RPES in the IP system is characterised by negative dynamics of development, both spatially and dynamically.This suggests the need to form an adequate strategy of anti-crisis management in order to prevent the transition of RPES into a RPES cluster with crisis development [3].
As a basic scenario we consider the inertial dynamics of change in the indicators of the level of development of LLC "PALLADIO OBNINSK" at the current values of factors of the forecast background (exogenous factors) and management variables.The initial state vector is set as follows, Table 1. was set for such factors as level of business activity, quality of management, level of financial stability, level of development, involvement in the system of technological relations and customer loyalty, communication and information strategy, demand in the domestic market, development of import substitution, basic services of the management company, industrial real estate, office real estate, IP attractiveness rating (indicators of the region).The levels: "average" and "high" were set by experts for such variables as business reputation of RPES, competitiveness of products (services), quality and level of innovation of management technologies used, experience and qualification of personnel, system support for the development of industrial parks, participation in state and regional programmes (financial and administrative support), tax benefits for IP residents [5].

Results and discussion
The growth rates of the target indicators under the baseline scenario are shown in Table 2.
The anticipation period equal to 5 was chosen based on the analysis of the results of the expert survey related to the period of formation of the RPES development strategy.The data of Table 2 show that under the baseline scenario of RPES development strategy a cascading pattern of crisis is observed.Over the next two years there will be a decline in business activity and profitability of RPES activity, the consequence of which is a decrease in the level of financial stability and stagnant dynamics of the development level indicator [6].
Alternative scenarios provided for the elimination of threats on "critical" factors, the assessment of the level of which is given by experts as "very low" [7].Among the control variables of the microlevel, such factors include the following: communication and information strategy ( 11 ); involvement in the system of technological relations and customer loyalty ( 6 ).
It should be noted that PALLADIO OBNINSK LLC (Serbia, Italy) is one of the structural divisions of the international company Palladio Group in the field of pharmaceutical industry [8].The decision to become a resident of the Obninsk Industrial Park located in the Kaluga region was based on the presence of a developed pharmaceutical industry ecosystem in this area [9].Thus, the Kaluga pharmaceutical cluster is one of the 5 Russian clusters (the European Secretariat for Cluster Analysis (ESCA) evaluation was carried out on 750 objects), which received a bronze certificate of Cluster Excellence and has the highest rating in the group of health and medical science [10].Pharmaceutical companies in the region produce about 140 products, about 80% of which are finished medicines.Kaluga pharmaceutical cluster has an agreement with one of the largest clusters in Italy CHICO (Cluster of Health, Innovation and Community), is evaluated as one of the most promising in Russia, is characterised by relatively high growth rates of pharmaceutical products, allowing to gradually implement the import substitution policy [11].Despite the high development potential of LLC "PALLADIO OBNINSK" within the selected location, the financial indicators of activity, the level of business activity, profitability, financial stability of RPESresident IP "Obninsk" speak about the weak integration of the company into the existing system of technological links (with a potential level of 200 employees, today RPES employs only 57 people).Partially this problem can be solved by adapting the communication and information strategy, so the scenario considering the change of control parameters for this component of the development strategy ( 6 ,  11 ) was considered as a priority (scenario 1).Scenario 1 considered the change in the level of factors  6 ,  11 from the assessment "very low" to the assessment "high".
Along with the above-mentioned micro-level factors, alternative scenarios were considered, taking into account changes in meso-and macro-level factors [12].Thus, at the meso-level (industrial park, region), according to experts, the assessment "very low" can be assigned to such variables as "basic services of the management company", "industrial real estate".This assessment is confirmed by the components of the rating of industrial parks, Table 3. Source [12] The low rating of IP "Obninsk" in the category "Services and Management" indicates the need to develop effective strategies to attract residents to the IP taking into account their categorisation, both large basic investors who need access to financial resources at various stages of business development, and RPES of small and medium-sized businesses with fixedterm contracts for property lease; the need to develop differentiated schemes of participation of different categories of residents in the project.In addition, actualisation requires the promotion of IP in the media, Internet space, both at the national and international level to form a "critical mass" of residents, allowing a more efficient use of resources of the industrial park as a whole [13].Scenario 2 considers the change of control parameters associated with the growth of the level of IP business activity:  6 ,  11 ,  18 ,  19 .
The assessment "low level" in the group of macro-factors was assigned to such factor as "demand in the domestic market, development of import substitution".This is partly due to the situation in the Russian pharmaceutical market, which demonstrates a slowdown in growth rates [14].In addition, Russian companies are represented mainly in the low-price E3S Web of Conferences 458, 05020 (2023) EMMFT-2023 https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202345805020segment.Thus, while the specific weight of sales of Russian companies is 60.5% in physical terms, their share in value terms is only 32.6%.Sales of imported drugs account for 67.4%, Figure 1.

Fig. 1. Ratio of sales of imported and domestic drugs on the commercial pharmacy market in Russia
Source: [15] Despite certain problems of pharmaceutical industry development in Russia, mediumterm trends are positive and show gradual shifts towards import substitution and expansion of Russian companies' representation in the high-price segment.In this context, we should expect an increase in the demand potential for the products of LLC "PALLADIO OBNINSK", which is engaged in the production of pharmaceutical packaging.Therefore, scenario 3, along with changes in micro-and meso-level factors, took into account the growth of demand potential, i.e., the following variables were set to change:  6 ,  11 ,  18 ,  19 ,  13 .
Assessing the effectiveness of scenarios and selecting a strategic alternative for the development of RPES in the IP system is the final stage of the mechanism [15].The best scenario is considered to be the one that demonstrates the maximum growth rate of criterion indicators in comparison with the baseline scenario.The growth rates of criterion indicators due to the implementation of the above scenarios developed on the basis of the above cognitive model are shown in Table 4.The data in Table 4 suggest that the implementation of scenario 1 -strategic alternative aimed at improving the effectiveness of the communication and information component of RPES development strategy, strengthening the degree of RPES involvement in the system of technological links and increasing customer loyalty leads to a more sustainable dynamics of RPES development in the IP system.In particular, there is a more sustainable growth of the level of business activity and profitability of the enterprise's activity, a faster recovery of the safe level of financial stability, which leads to the refraction of negative trends of change in the level of RPES development in general in the forecast period.
Scenario 2, assuming a change in the forecast background and improving the quality of management and expanding the range of basic services of the management company, attracting a "critical mass" of residents, which makes it possible to use IP resources more efficiently, shows a higher growth rate for the variable "quality of management", characterising the profitability of RPES activities, and the variable "financial stability", reflecting the ability of RPES to improve the capital structure by reinvesting profits.In general, this scenario provides a higher rate of growth in the level of development of RPES as a whole.
Scenario 3, assuming the growth of factors of the forecast background, not only at the meso-, but also at the macro-level demonstrates the highest growth rates of the level of business activity, profitability, financial stability and the level of RPES development.

Conclusion
Realisation of the strategic alternative scenario of RPES development in the IP system is aimed at increasing the efficiency of the communication and information component of the development strategy, strengthening the degree of RPES involvement in the system of technological links and increasing customer loyalty, which will ensure more sustainable dynamics of RPES development in the IP system in comparison with the basic strategy.

Table 2 .
Growth rates of criterion indicators under the baseline (inertial) scenario of RPES development of LLC "PALLADIO OBNINSK" Source: compiled by the authors

Table 3 .
Industrial parks rating