Sustainable economy: strategies and indicators of post-global transition

: The paper contains the author's definition of a sustainable economy as a concept of post-globalism; models of countries’ transition to sustainable economic, taking into account the required institutional and infrastructural transformations of the state regulation of the economy; methodology for assessing the economic stability of states in the dynamics of world economic relations. Paper defines the concept of modernizing the principles of state economic regulation; proves statistically that the geographical factor is a main determinant of the traditional and environmental predictors of capital sustainability; based on the results of comparative analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of the world during the pandemic, the adequacy of the authors' assessment of the economic stability of states is substantiates.


Introduction
The relevance of the study is justified by: Firstly, the need for a theoretical definition of a sustainable economy as an alternative to economic globalization of the concept of development, which includes a complex set of relationships between society, business and the state; involves profound transformations of the principles of these relations, new ideas about long-term competitiveness, efficiency, fairness and rationality.
Secondly, the substantiation of the relation between the global and sustainable economy, which makes it possible to identify the tools and forms of the upcoming phase transition, reflecting the main problems of globalization that require adjustments in the interaction between business and the state, forms of industrial relations and foreign economic activity.
Thirdly, the need to classify the factors of economic sustainability, areas (economic, social, environmental) and indicators of its manifestation, the formation of a system of which will allow the state not only to strategically plan the phase transition, but also tactically manage it, more effectively respond to possible challenges and threats of its implementation.
Fourthly, the importance of summarizing and evaluating the existing experience in implementing sustainable development initiatives at various levels of the economic systems of the countries, which make it possible to classify transition models to a stable economy, to analyze the effectiveness of a combination of the state regulators, representatives of society and business owners.
Fifth, the timeliness of developing narratives of economic transformations, priorities of consumption values, mobilization of factors of production that ensure the consolidation of government, business and society on the path to developing the principles of a sustainable economy as an internally sustainable and externally competitive model.
The main scientific hypothesis of the study is justified by the authors' conviction: firstly, the inevitability of the world economic system transition to a new evolutionary phase, functioning on principles different from the global economy, although not completely denying the essence, potentially capable to reformatting not only the structure of the international labor division and the existing transnational production and distribution systems, but also the factors of global competitiveness and macroeconomic systems attractiveness; secondly, the need to develop an adequate methodology for assessing the economic sustainability of modern states in order to both compare the achievements of national progress in the formation of models of sustainable economic development and identify critical obstacles in its path.
The scientific task is to develop a methodology for ensuring effective institutional and infrastructural modernization of the economic systems of modern states that meets the requirements of the transition to a model of sustainable development and growth, which does not cancel, but reforms the principles of mutual integration of macroeconomics and the functioning of transnational production and distribution structures.
The purpose of the study is to develop, based on the author's definition of a sustainable economy, a methodology for assessing a three-component (traditional, human and environmental capital) macroeconomic sustainability that is capable of infrastructurally and institutionally substantiating and effectively ensuring the transition to a sustainable phase of progress.
Achieving this goal provides a certain logical sequence of the following tasks: -to present a methodology for assessing the economic stability of modern states based on the classification of predictors and stabilizers of sustainable economic progress; -to conceptualize the principles of state economic regulation in the context of the priority of guidelines for the economic stability of the macroeconomic system; models for implementing the transition to a sustainable economy based on the analysis of advanced foreign practices; -to assess the sustainability factors of traditional (anthropogenic), human and natural (environmental) capitals, the degree of their influence on the sustainability of the country's economic development; -to conduct a comparative analysis of the author's assessment results with similar, recognized and popular in world practice.

Theoretical analysis
The problems of a sustainable economy as a concept of development and economic progress began to be actively discussed and studied in academic circles largely as a result of not only increased criticism of globalism, but also the noticeably intensified social protest against transnational entrepreneurial initiatives, the strengthening of the role of world capital in national politics, social and cultural life.
The multidimensional nature of economic sustainability parameters has determined the plurality of approaches to establish the system of its indicators, which differ significantly not only quantitatively (from three indicators offered by Rigamonti et (Pieper, 1999); energy efficiency (Vasiev et al., 2020); income limits (Guth et al., 2020); economic sustainability life cycle costs (Jeswani et al., 2020;Kargbo et al., 2021).
Despite the large number of publications available, certain problems of economic sustainability theorizing (in particular, the role of the state in the sustainable economic development model, the problems of national sustainable economy integrating into the world economic relations; narratives of the transition to the sustainable green growth model), the theoretical concepts application in the practical assessment of modern states economic sustainability, critical points and limiting factors of the transition to sustainable economic development, adequate to the requirements of the world market and national strategic priorities, need to be considered in more detail.

Factors of Economic Sustainability: Cross-Country Differentiation and Asynchronous Dynamics
We carried out a three-component assessment of predictors and stabilizers of economic sustainability in the context of traditional (anthropogenic), human and natural (environmental) capital; analyzed the macroeconomic indicators dynamics of 50 countries of the world (including the BRICS countries, G 20, 8 EU countries, 5 G7 countries, 6 CIS countries) for the period from 2001 to 2019.
The assessment of the predictor of traditional capital stability took into account: adjusted net national income per capita and the rate of its annual growth; the amount and costs of state external debt servicing; trade balance; final consumption expenditures; net volume of foreign investments; gross domestic savings; gross investment in fixed assets; government spending; dynamics of inflation and exports.
The results show a slight fluctuation of the predictor of traditional capital stability in European countries (except for Serbia and Turkey); a significant drop in the indicator in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (except Saudi Arabia), in four states of Asia (China, South Korea, Pakistan and Japan), Canada and Mexico, in all states of Africa, as well as in most CIS countries.A noticeable increase of the predictor was typical only for some countries in Asia (Phillipines, Malaysia and Vietnam) and Belarus (Table 1).
To assess the predictor of the human capital sustainability, the following indicators were used: the proportion of the population with constant access to fuel and safe cooking technologies, to electricity; duration of compulsory education; the proportion of children under the age of 16 attending primary school; the proportion of the population over 25 years of age with higher or vocational education, with an academic degree; share of public spending on education; population dynamics; life expectancy; immigration; unemployment rate; the United Nations Human Development Index. of human potential.In most countries of the region, a drop in the predictor of sustainability is observed.In Asia, countries with a relatively high level of economic development (Japan, Malaysia, Thailand) lost their positions in 2001, while China, South Korea and the Phillipines were leaders in growth.
Steady and stable growth of human potential among the countries of the Americas was demonstrated only by Colombia, and all African countries (due to high demographic indicators and the results of socio-economic reforms).
To assess the predictors of sustainability of environmental capital, the indicators of the ecological footprint and the efficiency of nature management were used: the amount of GDP per 1 ha of arable land; carbon dioxide emissions (kg) per unit of GDP; the share of natural resources in the formation of GDP; energy intensity and water intensity of GDP; share of own energy sources in total energy production.
The world leaders in assessing the predictor of environmental capital sustainability in 2019 were the countries such as Switzerland, UK, Italy, and Israel.Russia and 4 other countries of the post-Soviet territory fell into the category of outsiders for the first time (Tab.3).The situation in Asia is much more pessimistic because apart from China, not a single state demonstrates significant increases in the environmental capital sustainability and positive dynamics in the future.On the American continent, the situation is relatively stable only in the USA, in Africa but only in Ethiopia ( The indicator of the efficiency of traditional capital stabilizer was calculated taking into account the dynamics of the share of foreign investment; import; incoming foreign transfers; foreign portfolio investment in GDP; the ratio of a country's short-term international debt to the value of national exports; national reserves to the amount of the country's external debt; foreign trade operations to GDP; as well as the share of transport and tourism services in exports; indicators of sectoral and geographical differentiation of exports. To assess the effectiveness of the human capital stabilizer, the study used indicators that reflect its erosion (as a result of emigration, the spread of dangerous and fatal diseases, addiction to tobacco and alcohol), which reduce not only the potential for the national human capital reproduction, but also the effectiveness of government measures to support its quality.
The effectiveness of natural capital stabilizers took into account: annual water withdrawal; share of protected marine area; renewable energy consumption; shares of protected areas; the territory of a country prone to natural disasters; imported energy sources in total energy consumption.Extrapolating the trends of 2010s, we can conclude that the predictors of economic sustainability in European countries will be increasingly associated with natural capital, while in the countries of MENA, America and the former USSR, with the sustainability of traditional capital.The impact of human capital sustainability on economic self-sufficiency in Asia will remain at a higher level, but for a short time, most likely, it is the countries of Asia that will have a balanced model, in which the impact on the predictor of economic sustainability of all three components will be equal.
High-income countries demonstrate high integrated estimates of the predictor of economic sustainability, primarily due to human capital; middle-income countries show it due to ecological and traditional ones.
Analyzing the average performance of the stabilizers of traditional, human and natural capital sustainability, it can be seen that in all geographic groups (except Africa), the stabilizers of environmental capital sustainability have a minimal contribution to the integrated assessment.In the countries of the CIS and MENA, the contribution of the indicator of the stabilizer of the stability of human capital is maximum (due to the local demographic situation), in the states of Asia and America is the traditional one.In Europe, the performance values of the stabilizers of traditional and human capital sustainability are evolving in sync.

Economic Stability of States as A Principle Of Organizing the World of Economic Relations
Geographical groups of countries demonstrate a greater homogeneity in the dynamics of economic growth stability indicators, which indirectly confirms the tendency for the formation of regional clusters and groupings that can ensure the economic stability of each country in the group (Table 5).The greater influence of geography, rather than the achieved level of well-being, on the predictors of traditional and natural capital sustainability can be explained by the specifics of the regional economic system, not canceled by the achievements of the global economy.Regional differences of production relations in the world (features of state regulation, the role of the public sector, dependence on world trade, the state of competition, the level of financial market development and so on) also determine the factors of sustainable economic development in them.
In the countries of traditional capitalism, the latter are determined by the efficiency of business as a creator of material and social benefits, society as a responsible and active consumer, of the state as a guarantor of balance and protection of business and society interests.In the countries of migrating capitalism, these differences are determined by the expansionism of business as a condition for national prosperity, society as an environment for growing consumer demand and the formation of highly qualified professionals, the state as a protector of the corporations and investors interests.In countries with transitive economies sustainability is associated with the state, its effectiveness as an owner, employer, investor.In the newly industrialized countries it is associated with the effectiveness of the symbiosis of the state and business in the conditions of the dominant idea of national competitiveness.In developing countries sustainability is more related to the efficiency of local businesses integrating into transnational chains, attracting foreign investment, and permanently improving the economic regime.
At the same time, combining the results of the dynamics of the effectiveness of the stabilizers of traditional, human and environmental capital demonstrates that within the groups on material well-being there is a greater homogeneity in the indicators change.This led to the conclusion that the economic stabilizers in their effectiveness are more dependent on the economic system efficiency, the level of well-being achieved, rather than on the factors of geographical localization.
Consequently, stabilizers, as tools for implementinga sustainable economy model, are inherently mobile, they are not some kind of natural advantages (unlike, for example, predictors of traditional and natural capital stability).
On the one hand, this conclusion confirms that ensuring the sustainability of economic development is the lot of wealthy countries that have quantitatively and qualitatively capacious domestic consumption, an effective system of state regulation, the ability to export domestic economic problems through the existing model of integration into the world economic space, maximizing the efficiency of globalization benefits converting into expediency of internal social (environmental, innovation, etc.) policy; on the other hand, it makes it possible for any country, through its own modernization and achievement of a certain level of material well-being, to implement a successful model of transition to a sustainable economy.
Having reformatted not only the world economic production and distribution systems, the structure and sectoral balance of macroeconomic systems, but also the very ideas of economic sustainability and stable growth, the coronavirus pandemic is one of the most serious tests of the world economy in the new millennium, and the macroeconomic indicators of the development of countries in 2020-2022 years already allow assessing the adequacy of internationally recognized approaches to economic sustainability assessing to the realities of the current stage of globalization.
The economic consequences of pandemic restrictions, although demonstrate how prepared and resilient the states were for shock changes, but it does not seem correct to completely analogize the results of this "shock test" with the achievement of macroeconomic systems in the field of economic stability in view of the non-economic nature of the pandemic reasons.
For all the devastating consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, it is not the "beginning of the end" of globalization -the authorities and business everywhere have generally retained inertia, loyalty to the principles of the global economy, there have been no fundamental changes in state economic models in favor of economic stability and stability of economic growth.
The coronavirus pandemic provides a unique opportunity to test the adequacy of the results of the author's methodology for economic sustainability assessing, to compare the reliability of the proposed methodology with similar, widely recognized and authoritative ones.
Thus, the results of the author's assessment of the economic stability of the countries of the world in 2021 turned out to be more pessimistic for developed countries, but confirmed the growth of the ratings of a number of countries in the Asia-Pacific and Central Asia; as well as middle-income countries.
The statistics of macroeconomic indicators in 2021 proved greater (compared to the SDR methodology) reliability of the author's approach to assessing economic sustainability, based on the hypothesis of the correlation between the economic sustainability indicators achieved in 2019 and the dynamics of the countries' macroeconomic indicators in the context of anti-pandemic measures taken at the global level.
So, if in relation to the dynamics of GDP and foreign investment in 2021, there is no correlation with the achieved indicators of economic stability of the countries of the world in 2019 (according to the author's approach and the SDR methodology), then two other criteria are the growth of final consumption (%) and the growth of gross savings of citizens (%) demonstrate a large negative correlation with the results of the author's (rather than SDR) assessment of economic stability, which allows us to judge its greater adequacy and the possibility of wide application for analyzing the dynamics and effectiveness of incentive measures for the transition to sustainable economic development models (Table 6).

Conclusions
The assessment of the economic development stability of modern states demonstrates that its maintenance in the new millennium is increasingly becoming the lot of wealthy countries, with a high level of domestic consumption and efficient use of available resources, as well as positioning in the world market that can ensure greater autonomy of national exports and imports from the dynamics of world production and consumption.
According to the author's analysis, in the world ranking of economic stability (50 countries analyzed) in 2019, the leadership of the developed countries of Europe, as well as Israel and Japan, was noted.Of the BRICS countries, the leader is Brazil (14th place), followed by China, Russia and India (23rd, 38th and 40th positions respectively); from the CIS countries -Armenia (22nd place) and Belarus (33rd place); among the EU countries -Austria (1st place), NAFTA -Canada (13th place), ASEAN -Malaysia (20th place).Hungary (26th place) turned out to be an outsider in the EU, Mexico (36th place) in NAFTA, and Vietnam (50th place) in ASEAN.
The application of the author's methodology confirmed that the stabilizers of traditional and ecological capital have a stronger influence on the probability of stable economic growth than predictors, but the situation is reversed with respect to the sustainability of human capital.
Comparison of the obtained results of assessing the modern macroeconomic systems sustainability with the data of international ratings (SEDA -Sustainable Economic Development Assessment, SDR -Sustainable Development Report) reveals discrepancies (especially significant in the middle of the ratings).This is due to the differences in the methods used (unlike the author's, the SEDA method is more socialized and politicized, takes into account economic indicators that only characterize growth, incomes of the population and the fairness of their distribution, but does not reflect the degree of vulnerability of the country's economic system; the SDR method is based on the use of a large number of third-party ratings, focuses on issues of gender equality, political pluralism, development of democratic institutions), and requires additional arguments for the adequacy of the author's approach based on an integrated assessment of predictors and stabilizers of the stability of traditional, human and natural (environmental) capitals, the best option of which is testing the sustainability of economic systems of the countries of the world in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.

Table 1 .
Predictor of the traditional capital stability (leaders and outsiders in 2019)

Table 2 .
Predictor of the human capital sustainability (leaders and outsiders in 2019) indicators of the predictor of human capital stability have increased significantly; the difficult demographic situation in Europe has overpowered the quality of life and the state As the results show (Tab.2), in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, the

Table 3 .
Predictor of environmental capital sustainability (leaders and outsiders in 2019)

Table 4 .
Leaders and outsiders in terms of predictors of traditional, human, environmental capital stability (compiled by the authors)

Table 5 .
Countries -leaders in indicators and in integrated assessment of the economic stabilizers efficiency (compiled by the author)

Table 5 .
Index of economic sustainability in the countries of the world in 2019, selectively (compiled by the authors)

Table 6 :
Results of the correlation analysis of economic stability of the countries of the world in 2019 and macroeconomic indicators of countries in 2021 (calculated and compiled by the authors)