Modelling approaches to innovative activities of timber enterprises based on regression analysis

. The article presents the results of modelling approaches to the implementation of effective innovation. Within the framework of a collinear system of regression-correlation equations, a block diagram of the implementation of innovative activities of timber enterprises is presented, reflecting the possibility of increasing the level of innovativeness of timber enterprises. The study determined the necessary data array for building the proposed model. The presented model is based on financial and statistical indicators that characterize the level of innovative development of the timber industry enterprises of the Russian Federation, as well as taking into account their financial turnover throughout the industry for 2017-2022, and in the context of the development of small and medium-sized businesses. An important indicator was the level of funding for business projects on the use and implementation of information and communication technologies (ICT). The model also takes into account the influence of a group of various factors on the indicators of innovative development. As part of the regression and correlation analysis, each indicator was assigned its own value x i and x j . The results of the regression analysis data correlation are interpreted in two main blocks, general for the industry, and reflecting the dependence of the influence of small and medium-sized businesses on the innovative development of timber enterprises.


Introduction
Modelling approaches based on regression equations and the formed system of evaluation criteria with the possibility of reducing the multicollinearity of independent linear variables in correlation equations in the conditions of survival in crisis and sanctions conditions of timber industry enterprises is a relevant tool today.
In scientific research on the construction of regression equations, there is no universal approach and the use of the fundamental method of optimal components of the regression equation for all types of solving fundamental problems, which largely leads to the conditions under which, when using different methods of regression analysis, it becomes possible in the same interpretation of the system data to propose constructed several optimal oriented regression models, each of which will be based on the optimal criteria for a specific situation being solved, which allows researchers to solve the problem of selecting the most optimal model from the available options [4,6,9].
The most optimal under these conditions will be the construction of a collinear system of regression-correlation equations.

Material and research methods
The construction of a collinear system of regression-correlation equations and the rationale for the need to use its main indicators for the innovative development of enterprises should focus on solving the task of reducing dependence on crisis and sanctions conditions.Based on this, enterprises need to take measures to overcome high competition in new international markets, which, for many factors, is characterized by a higher level of activity than in domestic product markets [1,3,5].But the implementation of the sale of timber products when entering new sales markets, including international ones, requires wellprepared business plans and an assessment of their current activities in the conditions.Another condition is the active participation of enterprises in the policy of import substitution, here it is impossible to produce better products and with improved quality characteristics that meet modern consumer preferences without the development of innovative activity [2,7,8].
Figure 1 shows a block diagram of the implementation of innovative activities of timber enterprises.

Login Processes
Setting goals and tasks to be solved, aimed at the development of innovative activities

Implementation of effective innovation activities
Collection of necessary data on the state of innovative activity of enterprises The block diagram shown in Figure 1 reflects the possibility of increasing the level of innovativeness of timber enterprises and organizing the formation of an effective chain of business processes.In the context of the reorientation of production to an innovative path of development, the main attention of the management of the enterprise should be directed to the fulfilment of the goals set and the fulfilment of tasks in a crisis with the achievement of the necessary results in innovative activity [10,11].The developed block diagram provides for the accumulation of the entire set of available information on the innovative and financial and economic activities of an economic entity, with the identification of key problems that impede the release of innovative products [11,12].
All ongoing activities in the flowchart are subject to control in three main areas: primary control, current control and final control.All the necessary data on the functioning of each enterprise is contained in the reporting and statistical information published annually.
There are many methods for processing economic information, but under the current conditions, the most optimal for this study will be the use of methods aimed at interpreting the information received by statistical methods and analytical procedures, using the methodology of economic and mathematical modeling and forecasting.

Research results and discussion
A significant part of the financial turnover in the timber industry complex is occupied by enterprises from among the subjects of small and medium-sized businesses, as well as enterprises and organizations from the category of micro-enterprises.
In the work, a study was made of the impact of small and medium-sized enterprises, taking into account the micro-enterprises of the domestic timber industry, logging enterprises (LZP), woodworking (DP), pulp and paper (Pulp and Paper), furniture (MP) were studied.  2 presents' data on the turnover of timber enterprises belonging to small and medium-sized businesses for the period from 2017 to 2022.Data analysis and their further correlation were carried out in the context of the financial turnover of the entire timber industry.During the pandemic period for 2020, statistical data on small and micro enterprises were not provided, because.were not included in the statistics.Enterprises are represented by four main production groups: logging, woodworking, pulp and paper, and furniture production.According to table 1 and table 2, it can be seen that among all small and medium-sized businesses, the largest share of financial turnover is characterized by small enterprises, which occupy a share in the total volume of timber industry by 27.8%, in turn, mediumsized enterprises show a low level -6.4% , microenterprises, on the contrary -11.8%, as a result, the share of financial turnover by small and medium-sized businesses in industrial production is 46.04%.
For the successful functioning of any enterprise, it is necessary to introduce innovations, it is on the degree of application and implementation of innovations, and in the future, the release of innovative products depends on the level of innovative development of enterprises.
Table 3 reflects the indicators necessary for regression analysis and correlation of data that characterize the state of innovative activity of forestry enterprises, the sample includes: the level of costs in the implementation of innovative activities, the share of technological innovations, the value of the share of innovative products released in the total volume of production, as well as the amount of funding for projects aimed at introducing the use of information and communication technologies (ICT).According to ICT-related data, for 2020 were not taken into account, because not reflected in the statistics.Data are analyzed for three groups of enterprises -woodworking, pulp and paper, furniture, information on innovative activities for logging enterprises is not reflected in the statistical reporting.

* -predicted values
Innovative development without information technology is impossible, the areas related to the technologies of analysis, collection and processing of large data arrays are of the greatest interest.At the forestry enterprises, given their remoteness from each other and large areas of forests, there is a need to develop technologies for the specifics of the activities and functioning of timber enterprises, including for the production of competitive products in the context of import substitution.One of the indicators reflecting the degree of implementation of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the forest complex is the amount of funding for business projects for the use and implementation of ICT.
To build a collinear system of regression-correlation equations and justify the need for its application, it is necessary to determine the necessary variables x and y for regression analysis and data correlation.The data presented on the required indicators in tables 1 and 2 are reflected in the model for the development of effective innovative activity of timber enterprises in the context of a real import substitution policy, shown in Figure 2. The model reflects three productive-informative blocks, in which all indicators are grouped according to the level of influence on the innovative development of timber enterprises.Each indicator has its own variable x.The first block, production and economic, reflects the total financial turnover of timber enterprises, the volume of output of timber products, the financial turnover of small and medium-sized businesses.

Environmental factors
External influence The results of the correlation of the presented data on the impact of the total financial turnover of timber enterprises on innovative development are presented in Table 4 (the first block of regression analysis).The degree of influence by small and medium-sized businesses on the indicators of innovative development of the analyzed objects in Table 5 (regression analysis block).The values obtained from the results of data correlation both in the first and in the second block of regression analysis are characterized by relatively high values, but there are some of them that demonstrate low values associated with an insufficient level of output of innovative products and the proportion of technological innovations.

Conclusions
As part of the construction of a collinear system of regression-correlation equations, correlation and regression analysis were carried out, on the basis of which the most problematic points in the innovative activity of timber enterprises were identified.The presented model for the development of effective innovative activity of timber enterprises in the context of a real policy of import substitution fully reflects the necessary set of indicators for conducting purposeful calculations and data analysis.
Innovative activity at timber enterprises must be carried out in a comprehensive manner using the block diagram for the implementation of innovative activities of timber enterprises, shown in Figure 1, with the mandatory implementation of control measures at the primary current and final levels.

Fig. 1 .
Fig. 1.Flowchart for the implementation of innovative activities timber industry enterprises

Fig. 2 .
Fig. 2. Model for the development of effective innovative activity of timber enterprises in the context of a real policy of import substitution Effective activity of MSP subjects E3S Web of Conferences 462, 03017 (2023) AFE-2023 https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202346203017

Table 1 .
Data on the financial turnover of timber enterprises, billion rubbles.
Table 1 and table

Table 2 .
Data on the financial turnover of medium and small enterprises, billion rubles.

Table 3 .
Values of indicators reflecting the level of innovative activity of timber enterprises

Table 4 .
Results of data correlation of the first block of regression analysis

Table 5 .
Results of data correlation of the first block of regression analysis