Development of a methodology for predicting the development of rice blast in southern Russia to improve the environmental friendliness and food security of the country

FSBSI «All-Russian Rice Research Institute», Belozerniy, 3, Krasnodar, 350921, Russia

^* Corresponding author: lenakrug1@rambler.ru

Abstract

Establishing links between the conditions for the development of rice blast and the dynamics of its manifestation makes it possible to assess the behavior of the pathogen in various agroclimatic conditions. Therefore, to conduct research, we selected test sites located in one agroclimatic zone and homogeneous in variety composition. This approach allowed us to assess the degree of influence of external factors on the development of the pathogen, using different models describing this interaction. As a result of the revealed patterns, a model was determined that most accurately describes the periods of infection and the manifestation of the disease. In addition, the study set the task of the most complete coordination of the results obtained after processing the data using the model, and the data obtained as a result of observations. Thus, studies have shown that the methods used describe roughly the development processes of the Pyricularia Oryzae Cav., pathogen. However, it is necessary to rationalize the parameters of the models and consider the possibility of implementation in the territorial agro-climatic conditions of the south of Russia.