| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 164, 2020
Topical Problems of Green Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering 2019 (TPACEE 2019)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 11012 | |
| Number of page(s) | 8 | |
| Section | Environmental Policy | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202016411012 | |
| Published online | 05 May 2020 | |
«Consumer migration» phenomenon as a result of global migration explosion: catastrophe theory modelling
1 Russian Science Academy, Leninsky prospekt 14, Moscow, Russia
2 State University of Management, 109542, Ryazanskiy Prospekt, 99, Moscow, Russia
3 Petrozavodsk State University, 185035, Prospekt Lenina, 33, Petrozavodsk, Republic of Karelia, Russia
* Corresponding author: maria.pitukhina@gmail.com
The article analyzes reasons of spasmodic migrants’ mass exodus from Africa and the Middle East in 2015. In order to describe this phenomenon authors propose to use catastrophe theory toolkit, that would help to describe explained phenomenon using particularly "casp catastrophe". Two basic factors were identified in order to develop the model – push factor (conflicts, instability, poverty in the Middle East) and pull factor (western values and aspirations for political and economic freedom and hope for better opportunity). Model’s output variable is linked with migration flows intensity to the EU. "Consumer migration» phenomenon implies that migrants are aimed at not only saving their lives, but also at their well-being upgrade in Western Europe countries. Relevant statistical indicators in various EU countries and the Middle East make it possible to formulate a hybrid model of contemporary global migration explosion, which is a combination of a gravity model and "casp catastrophe" model. At the same time whileperceiving migration drivers and factors, however, we shall admit that migrants’ desire to upgradetheir living conditions doesn’t contradict the 1951Refugee Convention.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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