The character of transformation of the threats to Russia’s energy security as the basis for evaluating the possibilities to meet the prospective demand for primary energy resources

¹ Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 130 Lermontov str., Irkutsk, Russia
² Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education «Irkutsk National Research Technical University», 83 Lermontov str., Irkutsk, Russia

^* Corresponding author: ssm@isem.irk.ru

Abstract

The paper analyses the situation with ensuring energy security in Russia over the past five years and provides an assessment of the nature of the transformation of the most significant threats to Russia’s energy security until 2030. It is shown that by 2030 the annual potential of fuel and fuel in the country Energy complex for the production of primary fuel and energy resources together with the import of fuel and energy to Russia will significantly exceed its domestic needs. At the same time, the ability to export Russian natural gas could be significantly reduced. The paper shows that the situation with the decline in opportunities for the production and export of natural gas in Russia is not very encouraging. There are no prerequisites for a significant increase in world prices for hydrocarbons until 2030. And at the same time, there is a constant increase in the cost of oil and gas production and transportation on average across Russia. The paper concludes that the possibilities for the development of the Russian economy through the sale of only natural resources are practically exhausted by now.