Evaluation of Germany’s Vulnerability Based on Economic Principles and Data Science

¹ SILC Business School Shanghai University Shanghai, China
² SILC Business School Shanghai University Shanghai, China

^a wumaoguo@shu.edu.cn

Abstract

Vulnerability refers to the ability of a country or a region to resist internal and external natural factors such as ecological environment, economy, and society during its development. Germany is a country with low overall vulnerability and distinct regional differences, so research on its regional vulnerability can be a representative case for developing countries, as it provides a comprehensive assessment of regional vulnerability via scientific methodology and at the same time proposes rational solutions. The research collects quarterly data of 16 states of Germany from 2000 to 2015. This study describes a series of features of the data and establishes a comprehensive assessment of regional vulnerability including 33 indicators. Combined with the multi-criteria decision analysis method (MCDM), the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the entropy method are applied to calculate the weights. A linear weighted sum method is applied to obtain the regional vulnerability index of Germany. Afterwards, by performing regression tests, this study empirically assess the influencing factors of the regional vulnerability of Germany. Moreover, this study adopts the neural network training model and forecasts the regional vulnerability of Germany of 2016 to 2020. This study identifies the main factors that influence the regional vulnerability of Germany, and proposes policy implications on the overall regulation to reduce the vulnerability of different regions in Germany accordingly.