| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 264, 2021
International Scientific Conference “Construction Mechanics, Hydraulics and Water Resources Engineering” (CONMECHYDRO - 2021)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 01042 | |
| Number of page(s) | 8 | |
| Section | Ecology, Hydropower Engineering and Modeling of Physical Processes | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202126401042 | |
| Published online | 02 June 2021 | |
Mathematical modeling and forecasting of seasonal characteristics of tourist flow
1 Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
2 Tashkent Financial Institute, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
3 Tashkent State Agrarian University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
* Corresponding author: rsherkul@inbox.ru
The article describes the flow of tourists to the Republic of Uzbekistan and the methods of analysis and forecasting based on econometric modeling of the development of the process based on its seasonal characteristics. Econometric modeling methods developed by foreign and local scientists were analyzed and divided into groups to analyze the process of changing the flow of tourists and predict the future number. Among them, the additive model in the group of time series reflecting the seasonality of tourist flow was found to meet the conditions. Based on the data obtained in the quarters for 2014-2018, the values of the trend (T), seasonal (S), and random (E) components of the time series were calculated step by step, and an additive model of the process was developed. Based on the developed model, the forecast values of tourist flow for the next quarter were determined, and the deviation from the actual value of the theoretical result was 20%, and the occurrence of this deviation was clarified. Forecasts of changes in the statistics of the tourism sector have been developed. The article describes the methods of analysis and forecasting of tourist flows and seasonality of the Republic of Uzbekistan based on econometric modeling.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2021
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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