Research on the sustainability of emergency supply chain based on evolutionary game and catastrophe theory

Shanghai Maritime University, Institute of Logistics Science and Engineering, 201306 Shanghai, China

^* Corresponding author: 18678370586@163.com

Abstract

In the post-COVID-19 era, the market for emergency medical supplies has shrunk, and related production capacity is rapidly overcapacity.The supply chain is at risk of interruption. First, we analyzed the decision-making behavior of supply chain members from the perspective of evolutionary game, and used the probability density function to transform the game model into a sharp mutation model; secondly, we simulated the impact of factors such as cooperative income on catastrophe phenomena; finally, we introduced capacity reserves to advise on the sustainability of emergency supply chains. The results show that: ①There is a set of divergence points in the emergency supply chain system. When the parameter combination is located in the set sum, the system is prone to mutation phenomenon; ②Before the supply chain state changes abruptly, the cooperation income of the supply chain is increased, and the initial cooperation among members is improved. Probability is the main idea to ensure the sustainability of the supply chain; ③Capacity reserves are conducive to stabilizing cooperation among members, but factors such as reserve scale should also be avoided in the collection of divergence points.