| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 371, 2023
International Scientific Conference “Fundamental and Applied Scientific Research in the Development of Agriculture in the Far East” (AFE-2022)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 05045 | |
| Number of page(s) | 7 | |
| Section | Environmental Economics and Management | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202337105045 | |
| Published online | 28 February 2023 | |
Assessing the effect of political statements on oil price volatility
1 Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, 117997 Moscow, Russia
2 Academy of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, 125080 Moscow, Russia
3 Moscow University of Industry and Finance (Synergy University), 129090 Moscow, Russia
4 Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 125167 Moscow, Russia
5 Moscow Witte University, 115432 Moscow, Russia
6 K.G. Razumovsky Moscow State University of Technologies and Management, 109004 Moscow, Russia
7 Samara State Transport University, 443066 Samara, Russia
* Corresponding author: novla@list.ru
This research aims to show that statements made by politicians and public servants are a real tool for influencing the oil price. In the research, the authors used the technique for time series study that combines the consistent application of fractal analysis, regression analysis. According to the World Bank, the initial information base was created for daily Brent crude prices for the period from 29.04.2016 to 15.04.2020. A database for statements made by politicians and public servants via electronic media, information and telecommunication networks (including the Internet) was also created. Statements made by politicians and high-ranking military officers have a greater impact on the oil price than political, economic or social statements. All factors, except the one that characterizes politicians' and public servants' statements, affect the oil price, and it decreases by USD 0.02. The results suggest that if the oil price declines during a period of time, it will soon start to increase and this process will take about 18 days.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2023
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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