Methods for assessing hydrological and geoecological risks based on modelling

¹ The Laboratory of Climatology, Glaciology and modeling of water resources, Institute of water problems, hydropower and ecology, National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan 5/2 Bofanda str., Dushanbe, 734025, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
² Department climate, water and natural resources, Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences, 73/2 Timur Frunze str., Bishkek, 720027, Kyrgyz Republic
³ The laboratory for the assessment of environmental and economic damages at the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 29 Moskovskaya st., 620014, Yekaterinburg, Russia
⁴ The Environmental Management Center of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 29 Moskovskaya st., 620014, Yekaterinburg, Russia

Abstract

This study is intended for decision-makers in the field of water resources use (irrigation and hydropower) and for emergency prevention authorities. Another problem remains intensive technogenic pollution of the environment, including water bodies, and one of the main tasks in the conditions of technogenesis is the development of predictive models for the migration of polluting chemical elements and substances in the environment. To calculate the runoff of the river the HBV3-ETH9 hydrological model and the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections were used, according to which the air temperature is expected to increase by 2.3 and 4.3 °C, respectively, in annual precipitation - by 10% of the norm. In the period 2023-2080, a gradual increase in annual runoff is expected by 9-23%, and according to the extreme scenario, by 9-36% of the norm, which is associated with intensive glacier water loss, seasonal snowmelt and rainfall. In the future, the passage of two flood peaks (in June and July) is possible. The increase in water content in April and May will contribute to increased mudflow and flood activity.