Surrogate Modeling Strategy for Urban Building Energy Simulation in Early-Stage Urban Design: A Case Study of Energy-Efficient Neighborhood Design in Seoul

¹ City Energy Lab, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 08826, Republic of Korea
² Environmental Planning Institute, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 08826, Republic of Korea

^* Corresponding author: sjquan@snu.ac.kr

Abstract

This study focuses on developing an efficient surrogate modelling strategy for early-stage urban design, aiding in energy-efficient residential neighborhood design in Seoul. The methodology involves devising a design schema with important design parameters, generating 1,000 random designs via Latin Hypercube Sampling, and simulating each design’s energy use considering microclimate and shadow effects. Polynomial regression is used to develop surrogate models based on those energy simulation results, which is further validated with energy use measurements of real neighborhoods in Seoul. The developed surrogate model can provide quick evaluation of energy use with a moderate level of accuracy for early-stage energy efficient neighborhood design.