| Issue |
E3S Web of Conf.
Volume 444, 2023
4th International Conference on Agribusiness and Rural Development (IConARD 2023)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 02017 | |
| Number of page(s) | 7 | |
| Section | Agricultural Economic and Business | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202344402017 | |
| Published online | 14 November 2023 | |
Forecasting of Red Chilli Prices in Banyumas Regency: The ARIMA Approach
Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Jenderal Soedirman University, Purwokerto, Central Java, Indonesia
* Corresponding author: dindy.putri@unsoed.ac.id
Chilli is one of the national strategic commodities in Indonesia. The price of chilli tends to fluctuate every season which may contribute to inflation. In June 2022, chilli price contributed to the food group inflation as 0.24%. At the same period, in Banyumas it contributed as 0.20%. This study aimed: 1) to analyse the performance of red chilli price in Banyumas, 2) to analyse the forecasting of red chilli prices in Banyumas. This study used a descriptive method for assessing performance of red chilli price and method for forecasting of red chilli prices using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The secondary data of the average price of chilli used in the study was obtained from PIHPS. There were 69 data from April 2017 until December 2020. The red chilli prices in Banyumas Regency shows an upward trend in a fluctuating during April 2017 to December 2022. ARIMA 1.11 has been estimated as the most suitable model for predicting prices. The result showed that the price of chilli in Banyumas during January-December 2023 was predicted as 39.703 to 42.815 rupiahs per kilo, and it tends to increase every season.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2023
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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