Climate Variability Effects On Rising Dengue Incidence In Jakarta Province

¹ Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Trisakti
² Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Trisakti, Jalan Kyai Tapa (Kampus B), Grogol, Jakarta Barat, Indonesia 11440

^* Corresponding author: sinaga.evisusanti@trisakti.ac.id

Abstract

The incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Jakarta fluctuates throughout the year. During 2017-2020, the municipality of West Jakarta was the second-highest contributor to the incidence of DHF in DKI Jakarta Province, namely 5,301 cases. Subsequently, Kalideres district has the highest incidence of DHF in the West Jakarta municipality area. Currently, globally, the world is experiencing climate change. The transmission of dengue fever is highly dependent on climatic factors. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate change on rising dengue fever incidence in Jakarta, especially in the Kalideres District, in 2019-2020. The study design was cross-sectional. The variables analyzed were climate change, assessed from weather climate, rainfall, wind speed, and air humidity obtained through recording data from the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency website. Data on the incidence of DHF used daily DHF case report data obtained from the Kalideres District Health Center. Data analysis used simple linear regression analysis. Based on the bivariate analysis obtained, rainfall (p-value = 0.031; r = 0.211) and air humidity (p-value = 0.001; r = 0.413) were associated with the incidence of DHF. The regression coefficient value indicates that the direction of the relationship between rainfall and humidity is appropriate and in the same direction as the incidence of DHF. Meanwhile, air temperature and wind speed were not related to the incidence of dengue fever (p-value> 0.05). Early detection through dengue surveillance and mosquito vector control during high rainfall is highly recommended.