Optimising Solar PV Placement in Indonesia: AHP Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Ideal Locations

¹ LPDP – Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education Agency, Cikini Raya 19A-D, Jakarta, Indonesia
² University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom

Abstract

The latest Indonesian Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL 2021-2030) confirms Indonesia’s commitment to renewable energy. The government projects electricity generation of 40.6 GW in 2023 and is committed to involving renewable energy, which constitutes 38% of the total electricity generation capacity. Using simple regression analysis, the projected renewable energy capacity requirement is 47 GW, some of which can be met by building solar PV as a power plant. The main obstacle to achieving this goal is securing private investment, which requires identifying optimal locations where protected and conservation areas are not threatened. GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques are used in this research to evaluate various constraints. A commonly used method in this framework is AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), which uses pairwise comparisons to assign weights based on significance in a hierarchy of objectives. Criteria for determining locations for solar PV development using spatial analysis include prohibited areas, including forest areas and protected habitats, rice fields and peatlands; surface radiance, slope, temperature at 2m; and proximity to highways and power grids. Since the surface radiance spatial data obtained possess missing data, inverse distance weighting (IDW) is utilised to overcome this issue due to its simplicity and fast computation. The location determination process resulted in an estimated 43 solar power plant locations strategically located across all islands in Indonesia to help meet national energy needs.