Investigating the Relationship Between Tourism, Economic Growth, and CO₂ Emissions in Uzbekistan

¹ Karakalpak State University, Nukus, Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan
² Mamun University, Khiva, Uzbekistan
³ Urgench State University, Urgench, Uzbekistan
⁴ “Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers” National Research University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

^* Corresponding author: matkarimovferuz5952@gmail.com

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between the economic growth of Uzbekistan, CO₂ emissions and international tourism from 2000 to 2023 was investigated by using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) limit testing approach. The findings suggest that there is a strong long-run equilibrium relationship between these variables. In particular, a 1% increase in GDP per capita is associated with a 1.43% increase in international tourist arrivals, which highlights the positive impact of economic growth on tourism demand. Furthermore, a 1% increase in CO₂ emissions corresponds to a 3.93% increase in tourist arrivals, which shows the complex interplay between environmental impact and tourism development. This may be due to the role of urbanization and industrialization, which cause emissions, in improving tourism infrastructure and services. These results highlight the importance of developing integrated strategies aimed at sustainable tourism development that take into account both economic and environmental aspects.