Global energy trends in the context of climate and environmental transformations

¹ Republican Scientific Unitary Enterprise «Institute of System Research in the Agroindustrial Complex of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus», 220108, Kazintsa str., 103, Minsk, Republic of Belarus
² Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 620014, Moskovskaya str., 29, Ekaterinburg, Russia

^* Corresponding author: logacheva.nm@uiec.ru

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of issues of energy policy formation in nine changing climatic and environmental vectors. A retrospective analysis of the impact of the climate agenda on the energy intensity of global GDP and greenhouse gas emissions was carried out. The authors present a “time line” from 1972-2022, demonstrating the connection between the adoption of a number of key international documents aimed at achieving global environmental and climate goals, and the dynamics of growth rates in the energy intensity of global GDP and greenhouse gas emissions. According to data from 2010-2022, it is shown that the policy of replacing traditional fossil hydrocarbon fuel and energy resources with renewable energy sources in the global energy balance helps to overcome environmental and climate problems, positive results have been identified, in particular, a steady trend of transformation of development scenarios of the global energy system through the introduction of low-carbon and carbon-free technologies, primarily hydropower, solar photovoltaic energy, and wind energy. An inversely proportional relationship is observed, demonstrating several trends: a decrease in the capital intensity of renewable energy sources, a decrease in the costs of the process of their implementation and operation. The results of the study allow us to state the consistency of processes in relation to changes in the dynamics of global GDP and greenhouse gas emissions, while in recent years the growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions at the global level is lower compared to the growth rate of GDP, which proves the effectiveness of the measures being implemented. The materials presented in the article can be used to develop theoretical models and applied measures to implement scenarios for decarbonization of economic systems, increasing their environmental sustainability and mitigating climate change.