Multi-criteria decision analysis for prospective sustainability assessment of Arctic transport infrastructure projects

¹ Berlin School of Business and Innovation, 12043 Berlin, Karl-Marx-Straße 97-99, Germany
² Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, 195220 St. Petersburg, Novorossiyskaya str. 50, Russia
³ Kyvernetika e.K., 12353, Berlin, Germany

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

The construction of transport infrastructure in Arctic regions is increasingly important to support the development of critical mineral deposits, which are essential for the transition to green technologies. Route selection in these regions faces particular challenges due to high and unpredictable construction costs, strict environmental regulations, and the requirement to take indigenous land use into account. This paper presents a methodology for evaluating alternative route alignments that explicitly considers Arctic-specific factors. The methodology is based on an integrated multi-criteria decision analysis comprising 29 criteria across four categories: 14 technical, 8 environmental, 4 social, and 3 economic. Qualitative factors are converted using Harrington’s desirability functions, all criteria are normalised based on the min-max method, and a hierarchical equal weighting approach is applied. This approach is demonstrated using a case study of a road project providing access to the Kolmozero lithium deposit. According to the findings, Route 3 is the most favourable option as it stays economically competitive while avoiding protected natural areas, minimising overlaps with traditional land-use areas and reindeer herding zones, and requiring no wildlife crossings. The stochastic resilience of this result is confirmed by sensitivity analysis across three weighting scenarios. This approach provides a transparent, repeatable tool for feasibility studies and evidence-based route selection in Arctic transportation engineering.