Development of aggregators in micro grids in Eastern Europe

Technical University of Gabrovo, Department of Electric Power Distribution and Electrical Equipment, 5300 Gabrovo, Bulgaria

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Abstract

Aggregators bundle small distributed energy resources into a single market-facing unit capable of participating in wholesale electricity markets and providing system services. In Eastern Europe, increasing renewable penetration, ageing grid infrastructure and delayed transmission reinforcement create growing demand for distributed flexibility. This paper examines the development of independent aggregators in six Visegrad and Balkan states: Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. It combines a concise regulatory and technical overview with a screening-level techno-economic assessment of a 150 MW / 450 MWh reference aggregator portfolio composed of battery energy storage, demand response and vehicle-to-grid resources. The model applies a levelized cost of storage (LCOS) approach calibrated against Bulgarian market data. Under a representative two-cycle-per-day operating pattern with 3-hour storage duration, the portfolio achieves an LCOS of 165.4 EUR/MWh against an average peak-hour price of 232.6 EUR/MWh, corresponding to an LCOS-based gross margin of 45.7 MEUR/year before network-fee adjustments. The corrected revenue-stack calculation gives total gross revenue of 89.1 MEUR/year and EBITDA of 34.9 MEUR/year under the stated assumptions. Sensitivity results indicate that the outcome is most affected by CAPEX, cycle density and the realized charge/discharge spread, while round-trip efficiency has a smaller effect within the 0.82–0.92 range. The findings suggest that aggregator deployment in Eastern Europe depends not only on technology costs, but also on market-access rules, prequalification procedures, baseline methodologies and DSO–TSO coordination. The results should be interpreted as indicative scenario-based estimates and provide a basis for future country-specific, full-year simulations.