Bayesian regularized NAR neural network based short-term prediction method of water consumption

¹ Geological Engineering and Surveying Institute, Chang’an University, 710054 Xi’an, China
² Packaging Engineering and Digital Media Technology, Xi’an University of Technology, 710048 Xi’an, China

^* Jianyu Liu: 253965659@qq.com

Abstract

With the continuous construction of urban water supply infrastructure, it is extremely urgent to change the management mode of water supply from traditional manual experience to modern and efficient means. The water consumption forecast is the premise of water supply scheduling, and its accuracy also directly affects the effectiveness of water supply scheduling. This paper analyzes the regularity of water consumption time series, establishes a short-term water consumption prediction model based on Bayesian regularized NAR neural network, and compares and evaluates the prediction effect of the model. The verification results show that the Bayesian based NAR neural network prediction model has higher adaptability to the water consumption prediction than the standard BP neural network and the Bayesian regularized BP neural network. The prediction accuracy can more accurately reflect the short-term variation of water consumption.