Price analysis of Paris polyphylla Smith based on ARIMA time series mode

Sichuan Agricultural University, College of Information Engineering, Ya’an, Sichuan, China

^* Sichuan Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Engineering of Sichuan Provice, Ya’an, Sichuan, China

Abstract

Paris polyphylla Smith, whose place of intorduction is located in Yunnan, Sichuan and parts of Guizhou, has important medicinal value. For many years, scholars from home and abroad have done a lot of research on prediction of agricultural products and medicinal materials. However, there is little prediction about Paris polyphylla Smith. This paper establishes ARIMA time series model based on the market price of Paris polyphylla Smith from July 2013 to August 2018 and forecasts the price from September 2018 to July 2019. Compared with the price from September 2018 to July 2019, R_fitting coefficient is 0.954 and the relative error is within 0.072. The prediction of price strengthens the research about price fluctuation of Paris polyphylla Smith and improves the ability of drug farmers to resist risks of the price fluctuation of Paris polyphylla Smith, which will enable drug farmers to improve revenue. It has extremely significant meaning in the the stability of the pharmaceutical market as well as guarantee the income of farmers.