Very short-term forecasting of power demand of big dynamics objects

¹ Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warszawa, Poland
² Electrum Sp. z o. o., Bialystok, Poland

^* Corresponding author: miroslaw.parol@ee.pw.edu.pl

Abstract

The issue of very short-term forecasting is gaining more and more importance. It covers both the subject of power demand forecasting and forecasting of power generated in renewable energy sources. In particular, for the reason of necessity of ensuring reliable electricity supplies to consumers, it is very important in small energy micro-systems, which are commonly called microgrids. Statistical analysis of data for a sample big dynamics low voltage object will be presented in this paper. The object, in paper author’s opinion, belongs to a class of objects with difficulties in forecasting, in case of very short-term horizon. Moreover, forecasting methods, which can be applied to this type of forecasts, will be shortly characterized. Then results of sample very short-term ex post forecasts of power demand provided by several selected forecasting methods will be presented, as well as some qualitative analysis of obtained forecasts will be carried out. At the end of the paper observations and conclusions concerning analyzed subject, i.e. very short-term forecasting of power demand of big dynamics objects, will be presented.