E3S Web Conf.
Volume 84, 201914th International Scientific Conference “Forecasting in Electric Power Engineering” (PE 2018)
|Number of page(s)||10|
|Section||Forecasting in Electric Power Engineering|
|Published online||11 February 2019|
Analysis of possibilities to improve quality of spatial wind speed forecasts for efficient forecasting of electric energy production in onshore wind farms in Poland
1 Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw, Poland
2 Globema sp. z o.o., ul. Wita Stwosza 22, 02-661 Warsaw, Poland
3 Warsaw University, Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, Warsaw, Poland
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
The most important factor responsible for the quality of energy production forecasts in wind farms is the accurate wind speed forecast. An extensive statistical analysis of meteorological data (NWP) from 16 base nodes of the "300" grid in the "Łódź" area was made. The intention of the statistical analysis was to select potential explanatory variables for models predicting wind speed in the remaining 206 nodes of the grid’s mesh. Next, tests of selected prognostic methods were performed in order to compare their effectiveness with bilinear method which is not computationally complex. It should be emphasized that the main problem in spatial wind speed forecasting is the very large number of nodes for which the forecasts are calculated. As a consequence, more advanced and computationally complex forecasting methods cannot be applied in practice due to too long calculations time and difficulties in huge amounts of data processing. Conclusions with proposals of preferred forecasting methods that could be used in practice were developed.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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