Forecasting of electricity demand in the region

Czestochowa University of Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, 42-200 Częstochowa, Poland

^* Corresponding author: jansow@el.pcz.czest.pl

Abstract

Ongoing structural changes on the electricity market and technological development affecting consumers and producers increase uncertainty concerning demand for electricity, even in a short-time horizon. Because of this, it is necessary to develop forecasting methods. This paper presents a method for forecasting electricity demand based on the idea of an end-use model. Such models use regional electricity consumption rates and population growth predictions as input data, on the basis of which they yield electricity demand forecast for the whole country and for particular regions. The model also deploys stochastic differential equations for simulating time-variation of electricity consumption rates by means of the Euler method. On the basis of available statistical data, the results of a forecast in a medium-term horizon are presented.