Forecast of power generation and heat production from renewable energy sources

Czestochowa University of Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, 42-200 Czestochowa, Poland

^* Corresponding author: jansow@el.pcz.czest.pl

Abstract

The share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the end use of energy in the UE will increase from the present level of about 25% to 50 % in 2030 according to the assumptions of the European Commission. In Poland the RES Act was passed in 2015. The act defines mechanisms and instruments for supporting the production of electricity and heat from renewable energy sources. Statistics (2003–2014) of electricity generation and heat production from RES in Poland were used in the research. Because of amendments to regulations connected with promoting RES and the emissions trading system (ETS) as well as the uncertainty associated with further directions of the energy and environmental policy, generation of electricity and heat based on the use of RES must be modelled while taking risk into account. A number of dynamic processes incorporating random events may be modelled by stochastic equations using Ito calculus. By applying Euler’s method to solve stochastic differential equations (SDE), it is possible to simulate the development of the use of renewable energy carriers in electricity generation and heat production in the future.