Medium and long-term wind energy forecasting method considering multi-scale periodic pattern

¹ State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipment (Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University), Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China
² State Grid Corporation of China, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China

^* Corresponding author: lys_ncepu@126.com

Abstract

Medium and long-term weather sequence forecast becomes unreliable beyond two weeks since the weather is a chaotic system. Using values of same months for electricity prediction of wind power is the usual method. This approach defaults wind power output with annual cycle law. However, the periodic pattern can be very complicated in fact with multiple time scales. This paper proposes an approach with multi-scale periodic pattern considered. The application of parametric estimation on cumulative distribution function avoids the difficulty of predicting the power curve. Meteorological condition is considered to some extent via multi-scale periodic pattern explored basing on historical energy data. This work is an exploration for medium and long-term wind power forecasting that can well adapt to existing conditions. It has better prediction accuracy than the method without multi-scale periodicity considered.