Strategic planning of construction and reconstruction of the facilities of the heat supply systems with the use of scenario approach

¹ Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Yaroslavskoe shosse, 26, Moscow, 129337, Russia
² Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Kerchenskaya st., 1 “А”, Moscow, 117303, Russia
³ Volgodonsk Technical Institute, the Branch of National Research Nuclear University, Lenin st., 73/94, Volgodonsk, 347360, Russia

^* Corresponding author: verstina@mail.r

Abstract

Some topical issues of strategic planning of construction and reconstruction of heat supply systems are considered in the article, taking into account the features of its organization in the certain territories of our country with different climatic, economic, city-planning and social conditions. The article presents the results of the analysis of the strategic documents of the heat supply development in various countries, which showed the need of formation of management instruments, providing the possibility of planning of specific scenarios of the heat supply development in the territories of our country. The key conditions of strategic planning, are revealed. They include providing the solution of social and environmental problems as well as the matters of energy security of consumers, which are in the centre of global environmental challenges now. The legislative arrangements and the experience of the use of "Heat Supply Schemes" in the territories of the Russian Federation are chosen as the materials. The scenario approach with the use of the method of the hierarchy analysis is considered to be the basis for planning of construction and reconstruction of the facilities of the heat supply systems. According to the scientific approach, chosen in the research, the level hierarchy of the strategic planning process is offered. The major factors, influencing the development of heat supply of territories are analysed, the main factors and their purposes, as well as the basic scenarios of the development, are described. The authors offer four scenarios for the choice of options for construction and reconstruction of the facilities of heat supply systems, taking into account the practice of its organization in various countries. The importance of the basic scenarios for the strategic development of the heat supply system in the territory is estimated according to the hierarchy levels on the basis of the method of paired comparisons with the subsequent aggregation of the received results. The approbation of the offered management instrument on the example of the urban area allow to prove the scenario of the decentralized heat supply of the explored territory as the most perspective scheme as well as to raise the questions of possible expansion of the offered management instrument.