Permutation entropy variation for 2007 effusive dome-forming eruption period of Kelud Volcano, Indonesia

¹ Geological Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
² Geophysics Sub-department, Physics Department, Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
³ Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, Geological Agency, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: lusia.rita.n@mail.ugm.ac.id

Abstract

The complexity of a system recorded in time series data can be measured statistically using permutation entropy (PE). The state of a system (e.g. regular, chaotic, random, etc.) that underlies the appearance of variations in time series can be determined with PE. Since volcanoes are considered as the complex dynamical system controlled by interactions of many processes. Permutation entropy can be applied to study the system mechanism of volcano. We utilized PE to study system mechanism of Kelud volcano in 2007 dome-forming eruption period, from 3 (KWH; KLD; UMBK) seismic stations with different distances from the crater lake. Then, we want to compare the results. The result of study shows that the PE pattern for each station is different. The unique PE pattern that can be used as an eruption precursor is only shown at KWH and KLD stations. This pattern began to appear 2.7 days before the eruption on 3 November 2007. Data from UMBK station doesn’t show unique PE pattern. The factors such as sensor distance from magmatic activity center, size, and type of eruption probably influenced the final PE result. Using PE as the addition to volcano monitoring can maximize efforts in mitigation activities.